Forex Spread: September 2012

29th September 2012 Euro & AUD Weekly reports

Euro Monthly and Weekly cycles

Weekly lows and 4th Quarterly 50% level will determine whether the Euro continues to trend upwards into the October highs

AUD Monthly & Weekly cycles

October 50% level and Weekly lows are the Support zones for AUD's current bullish trend...

until the day they cut the % rates

28th September 2012 Daily report Euro & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

5-day 50% level along with the Weekly 50% level @ 1.2889 will determine whether friday continues up towards the Weekly level (Friday highs)

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

Same with the AUD....

Rando resistance Friday highs

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily reports

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

Below the Weekly 50% level @ 1.2890, and below the 12 hour channels (white)

the trend bias is down into the September highs & Thursday's lows (random Support)

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

trend bias is down into the Weekly lows...

Therefore the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level is seen as resistance.

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily report

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

5-day 50% level did act as resistance, but it's now caught in a tight range...

based on the Weekly levels and daily cycles I'm not sure which way currencies will travel...

There could be further weakness if currencies follow the same patterns as Index futures markets.

However, we don't have the same 5-day breakout patterns in Forex

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

Trend guide 12 hour 50% level down into Wednesday's lows...

Weekly 50% level is also the trend guide @ 1.0460

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily reports

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

Weekly 50% level could be the spring board for a move upwards into the close of the 3rd quarter:- higher Friday close.

However, the Daily cycles suggests that the 12 hour patterns and 5-day 50% level could act as resistance,

and see price move down into Tuesday's lows:- Random Support

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

Same pattern in the AUD:- Weekly 50% level

But it needs to break the 5-day 50% level and 12 hour channels for a move up towards the Target zones once again.

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily reports

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

today's trading is based on the Weekly levels, and whilst below 1.3046 (random resistance)

the trend bias is down into the Weekly 50% level

Weekly 50% level Support @ 1.2889

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

looks to be moving down into the Weekly 50% level, if it's below the daily 50% levels..

Random Support:- 1.0406 (Weekly 50% level)

Random Resistance:- 1.0544.

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd September 2012 Euro & AUD Weekly reports

Euro Monthly and Weekly cycles

Below the 3rd Quarterly 50% level and the Trend looks like it's moving down towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1.2889, which matches the SEPT highs

AUD Monthly & Weekly cycles

Monthly cycles suggest more upside in the last week of the month...

However, Weekly cycles aren't providing the same set-ups, and price could remain range bound within the Weekly levels

21st September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily report

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

The euro is being pushed back down from the 3rd Quarterly 50% level, helped by Thursday's low breakout

and likely extension down into Friday's lows...

Support resides around Friday's lows matched with the Weekly level

@ 1.2869, and also the September highs. 1.2808

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

Weekly 50% level Support could see the market more towards a higher Friday close....

but at this stage the 12 hour channels and 5-day 50% level aren't providing an ideal set-up for that to happen

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th September 2012 Daily report

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

euro continues to trade below the 3rd Quarter 50% level.

5-day lows on Thursday has caught up with price, and this level is either going to push it upwards for the rest of the week...

or it's going to break, and continue down in the 2nd 12 hour cycle towards lower lows on Friday.

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

Weekly cycles suggest weakness down towards the Weekly 50% level

if that's going to happen then the 5-day 50% level and 12 hour channels will form resistance.

However, after rising up from the September 50% level the monthly cycles suggest further gains,

that's not going to happen unless it's above those same daily levels

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th September 2012 Daily report

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

The euro has slipped back under the 3rd Quarterly 50% level @ 1.3065...

And the 12 hour channels aren't providing 'long' trade set-ups at this stage.

Today:- 5-day 50% level random support....

if below that support the trend bias is to move down towards the September highs & 1.2869

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles.

2-day reversal has completed after Friday's high pattern...

However, based on the Weekly level and the 5-day 50% level there could be more weakness down towards the Weekly 50% level & Wednesday's lows (SUPPORT)

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily reports

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

The euro continues to remain above the 3rd Quarterly 50% level @ 1.3065...

Therefore that's our support zone for a continuation up into the Weekly highs...

However, that might not happen today, as it seems a number of markets are moving into 2-day reversal patterns.

If Long on the Euro, be aware that if it's below 1.3065 it's trying to move back down towards the September high breakout @ 1.2808

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

AUD is moving into the 2-day reversal pattern, and Tuesday looks like it will continue down into the Daily lows....:- 5-day 50% level and 12 hour channels (white)

The Question now is how far will a 2-day reversal pattern go...???

if the AUD is bullish it should bounce off the 5-day lows, close around the 5-day 50% level, AND then CONTINUE upwards from Wednesday onwards.

if it's not bullish, then it will break the 5-day lows, and continue to extend lower in the 2nd 12 hours

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily report

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

Breakout of the Weekly and Daily highs, would normally see the trend continue up into Monday's highs & also the Weekly highs:- Random resistance.

trend guide 12 hour channels

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

conflicting pattern in the AUD, as Friday's highs resistance could result in the first 2-days moving lower, or at least remaining choppy below the single monthly highs (RED) @ 1.0572

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th September 2012 Euro & AUD Weekly reports

Euro monthly and Weekly cycles

break and extend pattern up into next week's highs.

There is also a breakout of the last month of the Quarter highs, therefore there's an expectation that's going to continue up into next month and Quarterly highs in October.

AUD Monthy & Weekly cycles

Target September highs +

and as high as 1.0897 during the 4th Quarter

Note:- trend guide the single monthly highs (RED) @ 1.0527 if that's going to happen

14th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily reports

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

More FED stimulus is putting pressure on the USD...

Target remains the 3rd quarterly 50% level @ 1.3065

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles..

Target reached in the AUD in the Weekly cycles.

Breakout of the daily highs should see the AUD move up into Friday's highs:- random resistance

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13th September 2013 Euro & AUD Daily report

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

Random resistance Weekly highs...

But because there's a breakout of the September highs, the Euro is following the move towards the 3rd Quarterly 50% level.

Therefore, the Euro is likely to follow the daily cycles upwards.

Support:- 12 hour channels

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles.

The AUD has hit the Weekly level, but there's an expectation that's it's going to continue higher:- TARGET

Therefore 12 hour channels are seen as support

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily reports

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

Sadly it didn't reach the intra-day support levels onTuesday, and now it looks like it's continuing up towards the Weekly highs:- Random resistance....

as part of a potential move towards the 3rd Quarterly 50% level.

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles...

Random resistance Wednesday's highs...

with 12 hour trailing support

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily reports

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

The Euro looks like it's coming back down to retest last week's breakout & Weekly level @ 1.2681

However, there is 12 hour support, along with the 5-day 50% level.(41 to 84 pips)

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

Weekly cycles suggests weakness

However, the 12 hour channels & 5-day 50% level could provide Support:- 41 to 84 pips +

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th September 2012 Daily reports:- Euro & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

The Euro is either going to continue up into this week's highs:- Random resistance around those levels, as part of moving towards the 3rd Quarterly 50% level.

or it's going to remain below the September highs and revisit Support in the Weekly levels, as part of retesting last week's breakout of the Weekly highs

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

Weekly 50% level is seen as Support, unless it opens below it today.....

Monday's highs and the Weekly level @ 1.0470 random daily resistance

Trailing 12 hour channel support as shown in the daily cycles

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th September 2012 Weekly reports:- Euro & AUD

Euro Monthly and Weekly cycles

Trend guide September highs, which could act as resistance...

But if price is above, then it's heading towards the 3rd Quarterly 50% level

AUD monthly & Weekly cycles

After bouncing off the 3rd Quarterly 50% level, the trend bias is UP.....

as long as it's above the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0364

7th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily reports

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

Trend bias is to continue up into September's highs

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

AUD didn't remain below the breakout pattern @ 1.02435/41.

These same levels are once again seen as support, if there is weakness in the first 12 hours on friday.

Whilst the trend bias is to continue up into the Weekly level @ 1.0343 (random Resistance)

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

6th September 2012 Euro & AUD Daily report

Euro Weekly and Daily cycles

The Euro is trying its best to fullfill the move up into the September highs (Weekly highs),

after bouncing off the Weekly level.

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

As mentioned in yesterday's report, the trend bias is down based on the break of the Support levels (Weekly lows)

My view is that it will continue to extend lower, for the rest of the month, however the Monthly 50% level could act as support.

if that's the case then price could rise back up and retest the Support levels @ 1.0235/41, and in my opinion those same levels will act as resistance.

Note:- 11am levels are the trend guides