FOREX Eur/USD 17th July 2008

"Wednesday:- Look for a continuation down into the Weekly 50% level using Wednesday's lows as support.

As pointed out in the Weekly report :- "support should be verified by a down day and then to minimise risk trade longs from a lower open the next day"

Yesterday's Report.

Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

Euro has continued down into Wednesday's lows and probably hit Thursday's low, which coincides with the rotation down into the weekly 50%.

As pointed out in yesterday's report... if looking to go long, then a lower Daily open and back into the 5-day 50% level...

high risk trading longs below Thursday's low

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 17th July 2008

"AUD has reach the tops in July-September.

Normally when price hits these highs I would look for a reversal back down, as was the case in March this year.

However, in the Daily chart we have a breakout of the Weekly highs, which often will support price for the next few days until the end of the week.... "

Yesterday's Report

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

AUD rotated back down into the 5-day 50% level on Wednesday.

Even though I have a view that the AUD 'could' reverse down from Monday's highs (previous report), there is still the probability that price can remain above the Weekly highs for the rest of this week because of the 'breakout'.

Today:- In that case, use the 3-day filter to trade any bounce off the 5-day 50% level on Thursday back towards Thursday's highs. (probability pattern)

If price is pushing down from the filter and below the 5-day 50% level, and also below the Weekly highs, then there is a potential reversal back into the Weekly 50% level, as it moves down towards Thursday's lows... (non probability pattern, but potential pattern to follow)

Note: A 'probability pattern' is based on the 3-day pattern that coincides with the higher timeframe 'Model.

A potential pattern (non probability) is using the exact same levels, but is 'thrusting' in the opposite direction, which traders can still profit by, or minimise risk by not trading against the current daily trend.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 16th July 2008

Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

Euro pushed higher on Tuesday (brown filter) back towards the highs, hitting the Weekly highs and reversing back down.

Wednesday:-

Look for a continuation down into the Weekly 50% level using Wednesday's lows as support.

As pointed out in the Weekly report :-

"support should be verified by a down day and then to minimise risk trade longs from a lower open the next day"

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 16th July 2008

AUD/USD Weekly and Daily charts.

AUD has reach the tops in July-September.

Normally when price hits these highs I would look for a reversal back down, as was the case in March this year.

However, in the Daily chart we have a breakout of the Weekly highs, which often will support price for the next few days until the end of the week.

Ideally I wanted price to come down into the Weekly 50% level this week and then trade the UP move, but it that didn't play out.

Therefore the rest of the week is view as range bound but supported above the breakout of the Weekly highs.



AUD 3-day pattern

I was looking for a reversal down on Tuesday into the 5-day 50% level, but that wasn't helped by price remaining above the intra-day filter (brown).

Wednesday:- No probability pattern:-

Often a breakout of Tuesday will push higher into Wednesday, and ideally from the 5-day 50% level upwards.

Range:- Wednesday's highs and 5-day 50% level, as shown..

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 15th July 2008

"Expectation that price is coming back down to re-test the Weekly 50% level over the next 2-3 days, and then look for a continuation higher

Monday:- Any reversal down on Monday I would like to see the 3-day highs hit and then begin a rotation back down into the 5-day 50% level.

5-day 50% level on Monday is random support....."

Yesterday's Report

Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

Euro pushed up on Monday but fell short of the 3-day high, reversing back down into the 5-day 50% level.

Tuesday:- There is no probability pattern.

The expectation is that price is rotating back down into the Weekly 50% level, which should align with Tuesday's lows (support).

However, price might push back into Tuesday's highs once again because of the 5-day 50% level support on Monday.

Note:- judge Tuesday's intra-day trend with the 3-day filter (brown), but also use the previous Weeky high @ 1.5933

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 15th July 2008

Monday: "Any reversal down I would like to see the 3-day highs hit and then begin a rotation back down into the 5-day 50% level"

Yesterday's report

AUD Daily & 3-day pattern

AUD pushed higher on Monday and stalling around the highs.

Expectation that with the Weekly highs, along with my view yesterday of reversing back down into the 5-day 50% level from these highs, that's how i'm treating Tuesday's trading.

High Risk trading shorts above the Weekly highs .9737

Note: potential reversal down in this 5-day pattern is back into the Weekly 50% level, but for Tuesday, the downside reversal is back towards the 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
  

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 14th July 2008

Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

Please read the daily report before proceeding....

http://forexspread.blogspot.com/2008/07/forex-eurusd-weekly-12th-july-2008.html


Expectation that price is coming back down to re-test the Weekly 50% level over the next 2-3 days, and then look for a continuation higher

Monday:-
Any reversal down on Monday I would like to see the 3-day highs hit and then begin a rotation back down into the 5-day 50% level.5-day 50% level on Monday is random support.....

"support should be verified by a lower Daily close, and then rising higher from a lower daily open

FOREX AUD/USD 14th July 2008

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

Please Read the Weekend report before proceeding.....

http://forexspread.blogspot.com/2008/07/forex-audusd-weekly-12th-july-08.html


Monday: Any reversal down on monday I would like to see the 3-day highs hit and then begin a rotation back down into the 5-day 50% level.

5-day 50% level on Monday is random support.....

"support should be verified by a lower Daily close, and then rising higher from a lower daily open"

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 12th July 2008

In an UP trending market, there is an expectation that a lower Weekly close into higher timeframe 50% levels can begin a 'thrust' pattern Upwards, as prices rise up from a lower Weekly open next week.

A lower weekly close verifies support, and a lower weekly open rising upwards is confirming the trend within this currently monthly timeframe.

If that is the case then my expectation is prices are moving towards 1.6034, over the next 3 weeks.

Previous Weekly Report

Euro Weekly and daily charts

Euro continues higher into Friday, and expectation that price is moving up into July's highs.

Next Week:- Weekly highs resistance @ and look for a 2-3 day counter-trend move downwards into Support.

Weekly 50% level @ 1.5784 support.

Note: support should be verified by a lower Daily close, and then rising higher from a lower daily open

FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 12th July 08

"Expectation AUD is moving up towards 98+ cents in the next Quarter, and the Weekly 50% level 95.40 is the trend guide within the 5-day pattern on the way up.

3 weeks up (higher closes) can often form 'drops' in the 4th Weekly timeframe, so there is a potential next week of a reversal down within the 5-day pattern, but that usually happens on Thursday.

Therefore a higher 3-day filter is going to be a perfect set-up on any reversal downwards"

Previous Weekly Report

AUD Weekly and Daily

AUD reversed down into the Weekly 50% level on Monday, found support confirmed with a 'hook' day on Wednesday, and then continued up towards 98 cents into Friday.

AUD 3-day pattern

It started with the sell off on Monday using the 3-day filter with the view that price was coming back into the Weekly 50% level.

As pointed out in the Wednesday Report, expectation of higher prices into the 3-day filter again, but for Thursday to reverse back down, as part of the Weekly 'drop' pattern.

Instead Thursday broke higher, and Friday continued with the trend towards 98 cents.

Next Week: push up into the Weekly highs, which match July's highs, and then look for the usual rotation back down into the timeframe 50% levels.