FOREX GBP/USD 6th August 2008

GBP Daily and 3-day pattern

GBP continues down towards the August lows, as most spreads against the USD are following the same pattern.

As I mentioned in yesterday's report, have a look at the other two spreads to see if the opportunties arise, and the same can be said on Wednesday:-

Wednesday:- Breakout on Monday's lows and failure to re-test the breakout on Tuesday often favours an UP day on Wednesday to come back and fill some of the range:- 5-day 50% level.

No probability pattern on Wednesday:- but if looking to trade longs the brown intra-filter has to be the trend guide. (higher risk)

But keep in mind GBP is trying to move lower and ideally a higher daily close should hopefully provide a set-up on Thursday for the down trend.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 5th August 2008 part 2

AUD 15:22

Aussie dollar continuing down into August lows...

Tuesday lows are random support, and not viewed as a BUY today, preferrably exit any shorts from the 3-day filter, as per previous report.

FOREX EUR/USD 5th August 2008

Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

Of the three spreads against the USD, the Euro has played out the monthly rejection pattern that I hoped for in the other two.

Monday's early rise up into the monthly 50% level and rejection, favours and continuation down into the Weekly lows.

Tuesday:- 3-day filter the trend guide and down into Tuesday lows (random support)

All spreads are following the same pattern of a downward monthly trend into August lows

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 5th August 2008

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern.


AUD moving down into August lows.

Monday test and reject pattern of the 3-day filter, and if price is going to continue down into the lows it should push down from the 3-day filter on Tuesday helped by the intra-day filter (brown)

Tuesday's random support:- prefer to trade any long positions from a lower daily open on Wednesday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX GBP/USD 5th August 2008

GBP Daily and 3-day pattern

GBP has continued down following the monthly break of August 50% level and heading towards the lows.

I didn't have a probability pattern for the continuation down on Monday.

Tuesday:- breakout of the Weekly lows and expectation that price will remain below this level.

Tuesday's low are random support.

The down side target is the August lows, but the best set-up to trade shorts down would be to see a re-test of the 5-day 50% level and then hop back into the trend.

Until that happens it's on the sidelines and look at the other two currencies of any opportunities.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX GBP/USD 4th August 2008

GBP Daily & 3-day pattern

GBP trading below August 50% level, and whilst price is below this level the expectation it's heading down towards the Weekly lows.

However:- a lower Weekly open favours a 2-day counter-trend move UP before the trend continues down.

It's a bit early to tell which direction price will go on Monday until GMT hours:- but if it's part of a 2-day UP move, then price should remain above Friday's lows and swing back into the 3-day filter.

Use the brown filter to minimise risk on Monday:- no probability for a down day on Monday.

FOREx EUR/USD 4th August 2008

Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

After reading the Weekly report the expectation is that the Euro is heading down into the Weekly lows, but the most robust pattern would be a test and reject pattern around the August 50% level.

A bit to early to trade the Euro, as most moves occur during the GMT hours, but the 3-day filter is the trend guide on Monday.

Normal Monday pattern is a test of the 5-day 50% level and reject down 41 pips and then move higher, as shown above.

However this time:- the 3-day highs aren't matching the 5-day 50% level, which is when this most often occurs.

Therefore:- euro traders trade on the side of the 3-day filter and I can't discount Monday moving lower into Monday's lows, which isn't a probability pattern.

FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 2 August 2008

AUD Weekly

AUD about to complete the reversal down into .925 cents...

AUD Daily

Looks to moving lower into August lows, and then an UP swing back into the 50% levels.

It's a shame that the test of the August 50% levels didn't occur before the trend continued down into .925

AUD 3-day pattern

AUD could continue down on Monday into the lows.

The ideal pattern would be a reversal UP into the 5-day 50% level and then trade down into the Weekly lows.

If Monday continues down into Support, then I would look for Tuesday for any potential UP swing.

FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 2nd Aug 2008

Weekly and Daily charts

Euro break of the monthly 50% levels, and looks like it's continuing down into the August lows.

Next Week:- I would like to see a test of the Monthly 50% level in August and then trade down into the Weekly lows.

Ideal pattern would be a test and reject pattern around the 5-day 50% level.

Now the best pattern would be to sell a higher daily open, but it could continue down on the same day, which is Monday.

Don't short trade above the 5-day 50% level, as it might swing UP as high as the 3-day highs.

FOREX GBP/USD Weekly 2nd August 2008

GBP Weekly and Daily charts

GBP has reversed back into the Monthly 50% levels from the Quarterly 50% levels.

The Secondary trend remains bearish (below quarterly 50%) , but the monthly trend is trading in the middle, and at this stage I don't know if August will swing back up towards the highs, or continue lower.

At this stage I don't have a probability Weekly pattern.....

GBP Daily

Friday is trading around its Daily lows, and if GBP is going to continue down, the ideal pattern would be a swing back UP (2-day counter-trend), and a 'sell' down from the 3-day highs.

At this stage I would wait 1-2 days to get a better idea on the next trading pattern.