FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 9th August 2008

AUD Weekly

Breakout of the August lows and price is heading down into the Quarterly lows as shown.

AUD Daily

From the 'top' in the AUD and the 'sell' down, the expectation was that price was heading down into the August lows.

The previous week there were some robust trading patterns to short trade down, whilst this week I was hoping that the AUD would re-test the monthly 50% level to get a good swing pattern down into the August lows.

But the failure to hold support around the August lows, and the breakout favours a continuation down into the Weekly lows next week.

AUD 3-day pattern

Even though the test and reject pattern of August 50% level didn't play out, the same patterns using the 3-day high filter did provide 'day' traders with the opportunity to trade shorts on Monday and Tuesday.

But after Tuesday there were no more probability patterns other than using the intra-day filter.


Monday's Trading analysis after 11am on Monday.

FOREX GBP/USD Weekly 9th August 2008

GBP Weekly

GBP has completed the move down into the Quarterly lows, and with the breakout of August lows there is an expectation that price will continue lower in September.....

GBP Daily

GBP Thrust pattern from the August 50% level, and the entire Weekly timeframe continues down breaking the August lows.

Expectation GBP continuing down into the Weekly lows next week, before any potential reversal UP next Week :- short term counter-trend move.

GBP 3-day pattern

Compared to the other 2 spreads, there wasn't a probability pattern alignment to 'short'- trade down :- IE 3-day filter or 5-day 50% level.

FOREX EUR/USD 8th August 2008

Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

Euro continues down towards the August lows, and of three spreads against the USD, it was the only one to follow the reversal pattern into the 50% level and rejection.

There is no probability pattern on Friday, except the view price is moving down into August lows.

Weekly Report tomorrow

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 8th August 2008

AUD continuing with the breakout of August lows.

No probability pattern on Thursday and nothing for Friday.

Weekly Report out tomorrow

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX GBP/USD 8th August 2008

GBP continuing down into August lows without a probability pattern on Thursday, and there won't be a probability pattern on Friday.....

Weekly Report out tomorrow

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 7th August 2008

Note:- All spreads are following the same pattern of moving down into the August lows.

The Ideal pattern to get back onto the downward trend is to a higher daily close and it aligns with the 5-day 50% level:- Sell higher daily open next day.

Until that happens it's wait and watch....

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

I was hoping that currencies could swing up on Wednesday so they could provide and nice set-up to get back into the downtrend.

"For an intra-day swing trader, the ideal UP day would be a bounce of Wednesday's lows and then confirm it with price trading above the Brown filter.

Anyone else I would look for a re-test of the 5-day 50% level, which is part of an UP day, hopefully providing a higher 'Sell' pattern on Thursday using the 3-day filter once again."

Yesterday's report mentioned a test of Wednesday's low and a higher daily close, and then sell a higher daily open. Maybe Wednesday is slightly delayed in the pattern, and we do get price rising up on Thursday to provide the higher daily open on Friday.


Note: When you compare the other two spreads (Reports below), you can see price is travelling down into their August lows, whilst the AUD is now trading below it's August lows.

If Friday closes below the Fair value price @ .925, and below the August lows, then there is an expectation that the AUD over the next two months AUD could be making it's way back towards .86cents.

This will be confirmed from September 50% level after the complete month of August ends.

So at this stage any reversals up into the 3-day filters over the next few weeks should provide trading opportunities on the downside.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 7th August 2008

Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

On Wednesday the Euro moved into a 'test-n-reject' pattern of Tuesday's breakout, and has continued with the Monthly trend towards August lows.

This week there have been a couple of good set-ups for the down trend:- Monday & Tuesday, but on Wednesday I would have preferred and higher Daily close so we could short-trade down on Thursday.

Until there is a higher daily close then it's watch and wait.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX GBP/USD 7th August 2008

GBP Daily and 3-day pattern

GBP continues down towards the August lows, but it's not providing the UP swing to get back into the trend:- higher daily close and sell higher daily open next day.

Until that happens it's watch and wait.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 6th August 2008

AUD Weekly and Daily charts

AUD moving down into August lows.

Tuesday was about the continuation down into August lows for most currencies, and Wednesday is about looking for any potential short-term UP swings to fill in the gaps.....

3-day pattern


For an intra-day swing trader, the ideal UP day would be a bounce of Wednesday's lows and then confirm it with price trading above the Brown filter.

Anyone else I would look for a re-test of the 5-day 50% level, which is part of an UP day, hopefully providing a higher 'Sell' pattern on Thursday using the 3-day filter once again.

Test and reject pattern on Tuesday's breakout....

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 6th August 2008

EURO Daily and 3-day pattern

Monday's test and reject pattern of the August 50% level has send Tuesday down into the Weekly lows.

Tuesday has a breakout pattern, which hopefully can move up and re-test the break befor continuing down.

Wednesdays lows random Support.

Wednesday:- I'm leaning to an UP day in forex markets on Wednesday because of the breakout patterns, but not leaning on trading longs.

Preferrably a higher close on Wedensday can provide and higher open 'sell' pattern on Thursday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT