FOREX GBP/USD 4th September 08

GBP Daily

GBP reaches September lows, and there hasn't been a rotation back into the 5-day 50% level this week...

If that's going to happen, then Wednesday's support should hold along with the brown filter....

Ideal pattern would be this 4 hour bar come down and test support and reverse up from a 41 pip spiral low....

Same pattern used on Monday, but failed.....





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    • FOREX AUD/USD & JYP/USD part 2



    AUD 11:30 part 2

    expectation that any up move on AUD was dependant on brown filter support after 11am, and that's not the case....

    At this stage expectation that price is heading down into Wednesday's lows :- use R41 spiral top to trade down... (below filters)

    JPY/USD

    I haven't followed JPY, but i'll be following JPY and CHF for the same patterns.

    Sorry I won't be analysing them, but traders should keep an eye on the same patterns during the day.


    Short 108.79 (stop 108.93)

    This trade is far more tricky as it's trading above the 5-day 50% level, but pushing down from the 3-day filter..

    so it's an each way bet and it won't surprise me to be stopped out...

    Ideal pattern would be to continue down completing the range lower, and then continuing down on Wednesday from the 5-day 50% level.

    Best pattern would be a lower close :- double R41 and then a test and reject pattern under Wednesday's 50% level to verfiy the move down.


    Note:- last 41 point bar needs to complete to move into Wednesday's trading so it won't surprise me to see a 'pop' upwards.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    JPY stopped 108.93 -14 pips

    FOREX AUD/USD 3rd September 2008

    AUD Daily

    Cut in interest rates sent the AUD down into September's lows on Tuesday....

    Breakout of Tuesday's lows and it's hard to see an UP move on Wednesday:- trade the levels...

    Within the R41 pip range, the AUD is actually showing a 'sign' that could be an UP day....

    But it would need to come down and test the level and find support.

    And if it's going to swing back into the 5-day 50% level then it should rise upwards confirmed with the 240-min filter...

    A weaker pattern would be a test and failure, but then a R41 spiral top under the filters to take short trades down into Wednesday's lows.

    An UP day doesn't have too many legs either :- 5-day 50% level resistance.

    No probability on direction:- trade the levels.



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  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




    • FOREX EUR/USD 3rd September 2008

    EURO Daily

    Euro trading below the Weekly and Tuesday's lows, with the expectation that price is heading down towards September's lows....


    Using the R41 pip range bar chart and the 5-day pattern, price is currently being supported above Tuesday's 5-day lows....

    The direction on Wednesday is going to be defined by the brown filters....

    Therefore the last 41 pip range needs to complete and then the rest of Wednesday should be defined by the filters.

    I won't discount an UP day.... but any trade either way needs to be confirmed with a spiral point either side of the filters....

    No probability on direction:- trade the levels.



    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




    • FOREX GBP/USD 3rd September 2008

    GBP Daily

    GBP heading down into September lows, with Tuesday currently supporting the market.

    Yesterday I went long on Monday support using the filter, but today I would wait until after 11am to take any 'long' trades looking for a move back towards the 5-day 50% level.

    If September lows had been reached ,I would say a rotation back into the 5-day 50% level (UP Day) was a high probability pattern.

    It could still occur but I would wait until Wednesday begins.


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  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT





    • FOREX EUR/USD 2nd Sept part 2

    euro 16:40

    R41 pip spiral top and Brown filter...

    entry 1.4596 partial exit at 41 pips and exit all @ 1.4535 + 61 pips

    Random support Tuesday's lows. but no matching filter to go long from.

    FOREX AUD/USD 2nd Sept 08 part 2



    AUD 14:55

    R41 spiral bottom aligned with support and the brown filter.....

    Would have been a trade in any other circumstance, but isn't the AUD suppose to fall when they cut rates????

    hence the reason why I didn't go long...

    Coming into the 3-day filter and spiral top :- rsistance on the AUD..

    FOREX AUD/USD 2nd September 2008

    AUD Daily 7:45

    AUD continues down on Monday into the lows with a resistance and sell pattern occurring around 7pm Sydney time....


    However, there was no R41 spiral top to confirm any 'short' trade, so none were taken on the AUD, whereas the euro provided the exact same set-up but with a spiral top.

    Tuesday:- Brown filter support or trend guide:- no bias on which direction Tuesday goes...

    simply look for patterns during the day, which should hopefully align with 4 hour timeframes



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  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




    • FOREX EUR/USD 2nd September 2008

    Euro Daily 7:25

    Push down on Monday into Monday's lows, with an ideal set-up around 7pm on Monday (Sydney time).....



    Compared to the Aussie dollar, the Euro provided an R41 spiral top sell pattern.

    Because the Euro pattern was so close to Monday's lows, I exitted on the completion of the 41 range + 34 pips, when I could have held another 41 pip range based on the 4 hour holding pattern.

    Entry 1.4660 exit 1.4626 + 34

    Tuesday:-     hard call as it's trading below Monday's lows, which favours downside moves....

    Use brown filters :- no probability pattern

    Looking at the sterling below, there could be a swing back towards the 5-day 50% level.. I would concentrate on the British pound on Tuesday.


    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




    • FOREX GBP/USD 2nd September 2008


    GBP Daily 7:10am

    GBP pushed down into the Weekly and Monday's lows:- random support.

    Brown filter support and expectation that price should hopefully move back towards the 5-day 50% level (minimum 90 pips)

    Support should hopefully hold until 11am when the shift in support moves.

    Long 1.8003 (stops 1.7981 22 pips)


    Stopped -22

    GBP heading down into September lows:- Weekly breakout


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    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
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