14th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

AUD continued higher this week, as did most currencies against the greenback, but there wasn’t an ideal ‘long’ trade set-up to trade on Monday

Once above the 3-day filter price continued higher hitting April’s highs on Monday

There isn’t any ideal long set-up to trade unless there is a pullback, especially around the April highs.

Today:- 3-day filter yellow the trend guide, and if trading below .7272 hopefully it can slip back towards the 5-day 50% level and more.

I’m still looking for a pullback into the Weekly 50% level.




Euro Weekly 3-day pattern

Euro move down into the monthly balance point and found support along with the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3150

But Monday was all about the 3-day filter @ 1.3185.

Once above that price rallied to the 5-day highs. (first time in over 1 week a 3-day filter cross-over).

Today:- If Euro is going to continue higher then the 5-day 50% level should support price for a move towards Tuesday’s highs.




GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Last Week GBP found support and a lower Weekly open favoured a higher move this week.

And it wasn’t until price moved above the 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level saw a breakout of the 5-day highs.

Today:- Ideal pattern on GBP before it continues higher is to see a pullback into the 5-day 50% level.

5-day 50% level support to move towards the 3-day filter highs.

If GBP moves higher into the 3-day filter, then I would look for a pullback into the 5-day 50% level (lower Daily close)

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day

AUD trading around the 5-day highs and higher Weekly open.

Expecting a pullback into the Weekly 50% level.




EUR Weekly and 5-day pattern...

As per Weekly report... it's all about the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3150

But as we can see on Sunday, it's already selling down from Sunday's 3-day filter.

Any upside needs to be verified with the 3-day filter on Monday



GBP Weekly 5-day filter

At this stage GBP is trading above the Quarterly 50% level @ 1.4571 which aligns with the Weekly 50% level.

1.4571 support, which is also the 5-day lows on Monday.

If the 5-day lows breakout on the down side, then the bias is to move back towards the April balance point @ 1.4262

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 11 Apr 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Higher Weekly open last Week and I was expecting more weakness in the first two days, especially with Tuesday's rate cut.

The ideal pattern was for the AUD to come back and retest the April 50% level (like GBP below), and then trade upwards from a lower Weekly open next week.

Next Week:- at this stage the bias is to continue higher in April, but I would still like to see a retest of the Weekly 50% level or 5-day lows to get some leverage on the way up.

Weekly highs:- random resistance

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro reversed down into support, but then expected upside Buying on Thursday because everything just lined up.

Instead Thursday failed to remain above 1.3225, and now there is a Friday close below support.

At this stage not a good sign for any higher moves

Next Week:- I'm not going to discount a higher move if price is rising up from a lower Weekly open and trading above the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3150

But we need to see the 3-day filter breakout (Daily report out on Monday)

GBP Monthly and Weekly

When looking at GBP it seems like it's trading in a text book pattern....

Higher Weekly open and move into the April 50% level :- support.

And a higher move begins from support and a lower Weekly open and continues higher

That's not going to happen if next week opens below support and price is trading below the Weekly 50% level @ 1.4571

In conclusion:-

AUD:- current trend is bullish, but in the short term I want to see a pullback.

Euro:- current trend is bearish with price to continue lower, but the 3-day filter and the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3150 will set the trend for next Week.

GBP:- current trend bullish with the expectation price should continue higher, but not below the Weekly 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Same expectation as all week, trade on the side of the 3-day filter with the expectation of price moving back into support.

I’m not expecting an UP day, but limit shorting above the 5-day 50% level.



Euro Weekly 3-day pattern

Euro move down into the monthly balance point and found support.

My BUY level was the 5-day low, which didn’t hit.

Using the 5-day pattern there isn’t an ideal set-up to trade.

Therefore the rest of this week should be defined by the 5-Week 50% level @ 1.3225

At this stage I favour higher prices, but not below that level




GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Still looking for a pullback into the Weekly 50% levels.

However, when the 3-day filter moves below the 5-day 50% level often there is an UP day during the US time zone.

If price had already found support around the Weekly 50% levels or 5-day lows, then this would set-up a continuation upwards.

But at this stage it’s too early to tell, simply because price hasn't tested support this week.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Monthly resistance around 7171, with the expectation of lower prices into the Weekly 50% level.

If that’s the case then a higher daily open and 3-day filter should continue down towards the 5-day lows…

Trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level/ 3-day filter



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Yesterday price was trading around support (Weekly and 5-day 50%) but I wasn’t convinced price would move higher.

Sure I took longs (stopped out), but I wanted to see how Tuesday traded and then look for a more robust Long set-up on Wednesday.

Wednesday is here, and again I’m struggling to see a higher move.

Price is trading around the April 50% level and the 5- week 50% level, which in theory after a 2-day reversal move higher….

But that won’t be confirmed unless price is back up above the 5-day 50% level.

5-day lows Random support




GBP weekly and 3-day pattern.

I’m going to treat GBP like AUD….

Below monthly @ 1.4824 and 3-day filter resistance for a push down into the Weekly 50% levels or 1.4505

trend guide the 5-day 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

Equity and Currency markets have followed the same pattern of higher Weekly opens and reversal patterns down towards timeframe 50% levels….

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD followed the reversal down , and at this stage the view is to continue down towards the Weekly 50% level.

At this stage I wouldn’t be trading long positions until price is either much lower or finding support around the 5-day lows.

3-day filter resistance.




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Euro moving into support, sadly it just didn’t move up high enough to get into shorts around the 5-day highs on Monday.

The most likely support would be using both the Weekly and 5-day 50% level….

Below and it’s moving down into the 5-day lows and brown Weekly 50% level.

However I still like to always use the 3-day filter as support for a move towards the 5-day highs, and at this stage the 3-day filter is much higher.

If there is support on Tuesday I’m struggling to see a major up moves, therefore I would like to see some support on Tuesday around these levels and then look for a better much more robust Long from Wednesday.



GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

GBP reversal but again not high enough and the 3-day filter.

At this stage the 5-day 50% level is supporting the market.
3-day filter resistance.

Likely pullback into the Weekly 50% levels and 5-day lows.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

6th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Expectation of higher prices in April, but it’s already trading around upper levels on Monday.

Therefore the ideal pattern would be for price to come back down and re-test the Weekly 50% levels this week

Simply trade on the side of the 3-day filter:-

Range:- 5-day highs on Monday and 5-day 50% level

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Bullish on the euro whilst above the Quarterly balance point and Weekly 50% level…

But whilst price is below the 3-day filter my view is for the euro to come back and re-test the Weekly 50% level.

Note:- price can actually chase the 3-day filter into higher prices on Monday.

No probability pattern on Monday.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Bullish on GBP to continue higher, as per Weekly report

But already trading around upper levels along with the 5-day highs & 3-day filter.

Ideal pattern would be a move back down and retest the Weekly 50% levels.

3-day filter random resistance & Weekly highs

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 4 Apr 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Expectation of higher prices in April played out.

Currently AUD is trading around resistance, but looking at the Monthly pattern there is a breakout, therefore the expectation is to continue higher towards April highs.

If that is the case, then we should use the Weekly 50% levels as support:- trailing support

Therefore the Weekly 50% level is support, and whilst price is above the Quarterly 50% level the bias is to move higher.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

I expected higher prices this month especially with Thursday's rally....

In the short-term I still look for a move towards the Weekly highs using the Weekly 50% level as support.

Trend guide is simply the Quarterly balance point

GBP Monthly and Weekly

At this stage the bias is to move higher, but whilst trading around these monthly highs I would like to see some pullback within the 3-day pattern....

April and Quarterly balance point is the trend guide

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

3rd April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Expectation of higher prices this week, with price above the Monthly 50% levels and bouncing off the Weekly 50% level and heading towards the Weekly highs.

This week’s pattern has played out, and I will need to see Friday’s close to get a better idea about this months’ trend.

Currently price is trading around higher levels : resistance and along with a higher Weekly open next week could see a rotation back down into the 50% levels.

Thursday breakout could see a move towards Friday’s 3-day filter highs:- resistance.



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Bullish on the euro and Thursday’s 4 hour close above the 3-day filter set up a nice rally into the 5-day highs.

There looks like more upside to go towards the Weekly highs

Support the 5-day 50% level


GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Continues upwards, but sadly the retest of the April 50% level on Thursday to re-enter any up moves didn't play out.

Next set-ups from Monday after this week closes.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

2nd April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Expectation of higher prices this week, with price above the Monthly 50% levels and bouncing off the Weekly 50% level.

Wednesday’s set-up wasn’t ideal to trade longs simply because the wasn’t any alignment of the 5-day levels, but I knew that if price could find some support above .6872 after the 3-day filter push down then there was a good chance price would continue higher.

Thursday:- 5-day 50% level support for a view of higher prices

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Bullish on the euro but I expected more upside on Tuesday and more upside on Wednesday but the 3-day filter capped price from rising.

Thursday’s trading is simply defined by a 4 hour close above the 3-day filter.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Bullish on GBP also, but again there wasn’t an ideal long set-up to trade on Wednesday.

Besides the support on the Weekly 50% level the UP move on Tuesday didn’t provide an ideal set-up for Wednesday..

Thursday:- April 50% level support (and previous 3-day filter)

5-day highs random resistance

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT