Forex Spread

11th July 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Next week will be about whether AUD moves down towards .7400 or July's 50% level pushes price back into the Weekly 50% level:- resistance.

AUD 5-day pattern

There were a number of patterns last week to trade using the levels in the market without relying on the larger timeframe levels.

As always l use the 3-day filter to trade down moves in the 5-day patterns, but occasionally they will fail.

The most robust trends always occur around the higher timeframe levels:- Weekly and monthly.

If you and I are trading the 5-day levels and filters, but price isn't near any higher timeframe level, price can often be choppy during a certain timezone and then the trend continues on in another timezone

It's imperative that some form of partial exit strategy is used regardless of the resistance and support levels used in the 5-day pattern

That is why I always focus on a partial exit strategy of around 41 pips if a more robust set-up isn't aligned

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro trading sideways:- Yearly 50% level resistance

I would think price will come down next week into the July 50% levels, using the Weekly 50% level as a trend guide ;- resistance.

Euro 5-day pattern

When trading the 5-day patterns and 3-day filter, we always begin by focusing on the larger trends and then look for patterns that align with those larger trends.

If the market is going down, then some UP days we be missed as part of the morning analysis, but an adaptive trader can still trade against the overall view of the market by using 4 hour closes and or R41 spiral points to verify the change of trend.

As an Intra-day trader I want to focus on key levels because of their reliability and statistical expectancy, but it doesn't mean they won't fail.

If price is moving down from a 4 hour high and resistance, which could be a 5-day level or 3-day filter, then it's going to be more robust than price already trading around a 4 hour low or an R41 spiral low

Therefore if trading down from resistance and timeframe levels and filters then run stops accordingly

If price is rising up from a 4 hour low or even an R41 low, but below key levels then tighten your stops.

I always know my best trades always have a number of alignments during the day or week, but sometimes those alignments don't always occur during our own timezone, and some of the patterns and daily movement can be missed.

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

July 50% level support and price has moved back into the 5-day 50% level and stalled....

If AUD is going to go down, then the 3-day filter on Friday will push price down and below the brown filter and continue down towards Friday lows....

Otherwise, above Friday's 3-day filter and AUD is swinging back into next Week's 50% level

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I wasn't expecting the Euro to continue higher on Thursday, as I was expecting price to follow the move down into July's 50% level.

However once price closed above the Yellow filter on a 4 hour close, the downside move was open to risk.

At this stage, whilst above Friday's Yellow filter price can push up towards Friday's highs.

Trade on the side of the filter, or limit any short trading on Friday above that level.

Below Yellow and price stalling once again around the monthly BP and Weekly 50% level, I would look for a pullback on Friday towards the 3-day filter (red) @ 1.3936

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD completes the move into July's 50% level finding precise support.

We have seen precise support on the S&P, NYMEX, and the SPI on July's 50% level, only to see all those markets break lower the very next day or the day after.

Therefore there isn't anything to suggest that the AUD will find support and move upwards.

Based on Wednesday's 5-day breakout, I would expect a push down.

Based on July's 50% level support and Wednesday's 5-day breakout, I would also expect price to move back upwards and retest the breakout before price continues lower.

In conclusion:- 5-day 50% level resistance.

Random support brown filter @ 7730....

Along with the potential to break July's 50% level....

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation that Price will continue down into July's 50% level.

Same expectation on any downside will be based on using the 3-day filters to trade the downside, as was the case on Yesterday.

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As pointed out yesterday, there was an expectation of early selling pressure around the 3-day filter (minimum 41 points), but then I expected a short-term 'spike' upwards.

This played out, hitting the monthly BP and sending currencies down.

Expectation that AUD is heading down into the July 50% level.

Unless the AUD is trading around the 3-day filter on Wednesday, it's hard to get back into the trend.

Wednesday's 5-day lows:- random support

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same pattern and same expectation of heading down into July's 50% level, which matches the Weekly lows (3-week).

Trade on the side of the yellow and red filters

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend is down and I would continue to look to short-trade the 3-day filter (yellow), in early trading on Tuesday:-minimum move 41 pips

However, based on this week's move, there could be a spike upwards into the Weekly 50% level, even a higher daily close.

But that UP move might not happen until later today during the US timezone.

Limit shorts above Yellow filter.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies on the Euro, as Today's up move has closed or failed to move higher that last week's 5-day low breakout (3-day cycle white). (Same in the AUD)

That can push the Euro down in early trading, but follow a higher daily close by US timezone if above the 3-day filters

Use the Yellow filter as a trend guide.

All Daily forex reports are written before11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

6th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bearish on AUD....

Based on the 5-day breakout on Thursday and the restest and rejection pattern on Friday from the 5-day 50% level, I would expect the 3-day filter to send the AUD downward early this week.

I would also think sometime this week AUD will go looking to retest the Weekly 50% level with a higher daily close.

Trade on the side of the Yellow filter, with a bias to short

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on the 5-day breakout on Thursday and the restest and rejection pattern on Friday from the 3-day filter, I would expect the 3-day filter to send the Euro downward early this week.

I would also think sometime this week the Euro will go looking to retest the Weekly 50% level with a higher daily close.

Trade on the side of the Yellow filter, with a bias to short

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

4th July 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly..

AUD will start the 3rd quarter below the higher timeframe 50% levels, with the Expectation price is pulling back into the July's 50% levels, which matches the Yearly 50% level and MAY high breakout.

Resistance:- Weekly 50% levels and around 80cents

AUD 5-day pattern

Last Week I was bullish, and the first 3-days of trading provided the UP moves, which I thought would have continued UP on Thursday....

Instead Thursday sold down providing a breakout of the 5-day lows and a Sell pattern Friday...

Retest the break and 5-day 50% level.

At this stage during any downtrend... I would focus on short trading around the 3-day filter levels:- minimum moves 41 pips.

Euro Weekly and Monthly

Same view as AUD, pulling back into July's 50% level.

Weekly 50% level resistance.

Euro 5-day pattern

I was bullish all last week, and most trading support levels played their part until Thursday's 3-day filter failed to rise:- 41 pips minimum.

I didn't see the down move coming because price was above the Weekly 50% level.

Thursday's breakout, provided the 'short' sell on Friday....

And I would expect that price should push down into the 5-day lows early next week...

Yellow filter trend guide.

2nd July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

I wasn't expecting yesterday's down move, simply because price was trading above the Weekly 50% level and monthly BP....

However, I knew not to trade longs below the Yellow Filter.

Friday:- There is a 5-day breakout....

Price can move down into Firday's lows and then swing up early next week to retest the breakout....

Or price slowly climbs upwards into the 5-day 50% level and sells down early next week, using the Weekly 50% level as resistance.

EURO Weekly

4 hour failure on the 3-day filter, resulting in a down move and 5-day breakout.

Friday:- either price continues down into Friday's lows, and then swings up early next week...

or moves up into the break and 3-day filter, and sells down next week:- Weekly 50% level resistance

All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

2nd July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily part 2

AUD part 2

I've been bullish all week on currencies, and after yesterday's move upwards into the 3-day filter, I expected AUD to continue to move higher in early trading on Thursday...

Instead it has sold down from .8077

I don't have a probability pattern of a down day because of the Weekly and Monthly 50% levels.

Unless AUD has a 4 hour close above .8077... I personally would still it out.