12th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR, GBP Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD trading around the 3rd Quarter highs and the September highs.

Next Week will start from a higher weekly open, but unless price is trading below the Weekly 50% level and the August highs it hard to think the AUD will drop much.

But, if the AUD begins to drop down from a higher weekly open, the 3rd filter will often provide set-ups on the way down.

Daily and 5-day pattern on Monday

Euro Monthly

MAY high breakout, June retest of the breakout, and expectation that the 3rd Quarter would rise towards the 3rd Quarter highs.

This was set-up with the month of September:- last month of the quarter continuing into the next Quarter.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage the view is to continue higher, but it would be ideal to see a lower spiral filter some time next week to trade longs upwards.

Daily report on Monday

GBP/USD Monthly and Quarterly

11th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Euro Weekly

Trading above the September highs, and Friday is whether price continues into a higher Friday close or ends up trading around the 5-day 50% level.


Aud 5-day pattern and spiral filter

Still above the pink filter with a potential move into another pink to pink move upwards, but if will need to be trading above the 3-day filter...

helped by the 5-day 50% level

If price is trading belew the 5-day 50% level and the R84 close below the pink, then the bias is to move back down into the 5-day lows @ 85.10

Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter

It's simply a matter of trading or not trading on the side of the pink filter and the direction is takes on Friday.

No probability on the directions

10th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD & Euro Weekly

Both currencies trading above resistance levels, and at this stage there is a view of higher prices into Friday...

The AUD is alreay trading around the 3rd Quarter highs, whilst the Euro is trying to get to those highs @ 1.4870+

AUD 5-day and spiral filter pattern

Early sell rotating down on Wednesday but spiral low support....

pink support on Thursday...

However the trend guide should be 86.19

If above it's following a pink to pink move upwards, which matches Thursday's highs and the 3-day filter (yellow)

Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter..

Trend guide 1.4546...

Below and it's following a similar pattern as the AUD :- rotating down 85 pips and more than likely continue higher.

Above 1.4546 and it continues to trend upwards.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th Sept 2009, USD AUD, EUR Daily

USD Index

USD Index has followed the pattern down into September's lows completing the 2-month lower low pattern, but at this stage it's too early to tell whether price will find support around these levels and currencies reverse down from their highs..


AUD and Euro Weekly

AUD has continued higher with a break above the September highs and Euro has completed the September highs...

However, as pointed out in the Weekly report, the Euro can go higher this month and follow the Quarterly highs.

If the USD rises and currencies begin to drop then there needs verification before any reversals, because there are currently thrust patterns occurring that can see trends continue into higher prices on Friday.

AUD 5-day pattern and filter

AUD Continued higher once above the pink filter....

However, with price trading so near to the September highs on Tuesday, it was hard to hold or move into long positions above that level.

At this stage I would wait until the next pink filter is formed, as price can continue higher because above September highs....

or it can reverse back down into a lower spiral filter and then continue higher.

Euro 5-day pattern and filter...

Monday's rise up from the pink filter and has moved into a pink to pink move on tuesday completing the September highs

I would think the euro will complete the highs @ 1.4546

And might find some short-term weakness around 1.4546, but I also know that the Euro can continue higher, and follow another higher pink to pink move into Friday, as part of this week's 'thrust' pattern from the 50% levels.

8th September 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD & EUR Weekly

AUD hitting major resistance levels @ 8590.

Euro looks like more UPside

AUD 5-day pattern and Spiral filter

3-day filter ( Yellow) matches the September highs:- resistance

However, the pink filter is the trend guide...

Whilst below 85.66 @ 11am, could see a reversal back down into the blue filter, as part of a retest of Friday's breakout

Random support 84.93

Euro 5-day and Spiral filter

Even though there is an expectation of higher prices, whilst below the pink filter @ 1.4360 the bias is to come back and retest the 50% level @ 1.4305....

Above 1.4360 and it's going to follow another R85 range upwards into 1.4405, which might occur during the during the GMT-US timezone.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th September 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, the expectation is that the AUD is moving up into Setpember highs.

Helped by Friday's breakout...



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

In the short-term the bias is to continued higher until the Range completes.

currencies will follow a similar pattern as the US indexes on Monday.

If the S&P follows a mini Thrust pattern (read US index report) then Monday will continue to trend higher for the Euro towards the Weekly highs.

If the S&P breaks support on Monday, then it's back down into the Weekly 50% level after reaching the R85 high @ 1.4360-77

5th September 2009, AUD, EUR Weekly

USD Index

Heading down into September's lows....

Whilst currencies continue higher in September.


AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD hitting the Quarterly highs, but should continue up towards the September highs.....

AUD Weekly and spiral Filter

UP move on Friday set-up with Pink filter support, and probably continue higher on Monday because of the breakout of the highs...

Price should continue to move towards the R85 high and another spiral filter.

Euro Monthly

Trend guide for the euro is 1.4262 and price should continue up into September's highs and with a max move towards the Quarterly highs @ 1.4870...

As long as price is above 1.4262 then the trend is UP...

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Choppy trading Week either side of the Weekly 50% level, but that was my expectation.

Because Friday has closed higher, there is an expectation that next Week will continue higher.

Basically every low last week was matched with the pink filter...

Therefore the 50% level is 1.4262 and this matches the monthly balance point in the Weekly chart.

Unless for some reason the Euro 'gaps' open below that level I would have to treat September with an UP ward bias.

Below 1.4262 next week and the bias would be to revist the monthly lows @ 1.4013

4th September 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD and Euro Weekly

There is a bias to continue higher in September, however on friday i'm currently leaning towards a Friday that consolidates around these mid points.

And if currencies are going to go higher, then these levels will be support and the Weekly open will hopefuly push upwards from Monday.


AUD 5-day pattern and R85 filter

At this stage whilst AUD is trading above the 50% levels, the view is to continue higher...

If price is below the pink and below the 50% level, then it's going down.


Euro 5-day pattern and filter

looking at the 5-day pattern and filters, there is no probability pattern for Friday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

3rd September 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD and Euro Weekly

Both currencies trading around the monthly balance points and with higher daily closes.

Therefore we have higher daily opens below the monthly Balance points.

At this stage this week looks to be consolidating around the 50% levels until Friday closes.

AUD 5-day and spiral filter


Trend guide the Wekly 50% level and the 5-day 50% level, which can lead to a downward bias random length

No probability pattern



Euro 5-day and spiral filter

No probability pattern:- either the Euro continues up and completes R85 pip high

or drops back down into the low, as today's higher open is pushed down from the Monthly balance.

2nd September 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD and Euro trading below the Weekly 50% levels and monthly balance points....

At this stage the price action is viewed as bearish until this week completes...

We have lower Daily opens so the resistance levels are the monthly balance points in each market.

AUD 5-day pattern and Spiral filter

AUD is simply going to be defined by the 5-day 50% level and the R85 high...

either price pushes upwards after closing above 83.13 (R84 close)

or price drops back down into the lows @ 82.05

Euro 5-day pattern and filter

Yesterday's expectation was that 1.4325 would suport price, resulting in a 41 pip rise before euro broke lower ...

Each pink filter providing a 41 pip rise...

At this stage the R85 high is veiwed as resistance on Wednesday.