5th Dec 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

USD Index

USD dollar index and change of trend is going to push currencies lower.

It's the first change of trend in 9 months, and the index should continue to move towards the December highs.

Once that occurs there are two patterns in play....

Price can continue higher in the first Quarter towards the Yearly 50% level.

Or price is going to hit the 50% level and December highs in the 4th Quarter and then continue down in the first Quarter.

In the mean time the short-term trend is expected to continue upwards.

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD has remained in a tight trading week, and next week's 50% levels are the key for any direction change.

If Monday is below the Weekly 50% levels, then it could be a good idea to hold positions for a move down into December's lows.

If price is breaking the 3-day cycle high, then AUD remains well supported in the 4th Quarter.

We just need to see the December 50% level fail

Euro Monthly and Weekly

This week saw major support levels break and the continuation down helped by Friday's 5-day 50% level rejection pattern.

At this stage i'm expecting the trend to continue down.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

GBP trading below the December 50% levels, and price should continue to move lower.

11th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

short-term bearish pattern in the AUD failed with Thursday's JOB data pushing price back above the key levels in the market.

Whilst price is above those levels the expectation is that the trend will continue higher.

However, there are two patterns that need to be optimised for Friday's trading.

'Weekly' drop patterns often favour a lower Friday close.

And Thursday's trading is still in a 3-day 'sell' cycle.

At this stage I don't know if the Trend will continue higher, or it's simply a 2-day counter-trend back into the 3-day cycle and the trend continues lower on Friday.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is nothing to suggest the Euro will rise higher on Friday.

It's below key levels in the market and Friday's 5-day 50% level can easily send price lower.

USD dollar index is above the 3-week highs and Monthly 50% level, which has been key resistance levels for over 9-months, and this should continue to move higher whilst currencies continue lower... as each goes looking for their Yearly 50% levels in 2010

However, if Euro ends up back above the December 50% level and red filter then it could end up rallying in a higher Friday close (fake break)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Resistance on Wednesday but no follow through on the downside.

However, that's understandable as there is often a 1-day UP move during a change of trend.

At this stage I would continue focus on shorting currencies in the short-term.

Even though the price action is weak, it's also the price action in the USD index that's bullish that leads me to believe that this week will close lower.

With the 3-day cycles now catching up with price, this can also send the AUD lower.

Note:- high risk trading shorts above the 3-day cycle high

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro remains below key levels in the trend.

After 2-down days and the failure of the 1-day counter-trend to close back above those levels on Wednesday, I would have to favour more weakness this week.

Trend guide the December 50% level @ 1,4786

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

first 2-days have followed US markets lower, whilst the USD index has broken above the December 50% levels and 3-weeks,which at the monet can signal a change of trend in currencies.

The Trend is DOWN, but it depends on how Wednesday trades.

Resistance 50% level and 3-day filter.

If Wednesday moves down into the 5-day lows, then there is a potential of a higher daily close.

If that happens then the daily close needs to remain below the 5-day levels and the weekly 50% level.

If that happens then Thursday becomes another 'short' sell using a higher daily open and resistance.

At this stage the trend on Wednesday should be defined by Tuesday's lows

Whenther there is a down trend I alway focus using the 3-day filters (yellow) as resistance.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Euro far more bearish in the short-term with a break of the 3-week lows, December 50% levels and also Tuesday's lows.

At this stage I would continue look trade the trend (DOWN).

Yellow filter trend guide.

Above Yelow filter and 5-day 50% level is resistance.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Currently price is trading below the lesser timeframe 50% levels, but there are larger timeframe patterns that still favours higher prices in December (read Weekly Report).

However, until price is above the lesser timeframe 50% levels it's hard to favour further gains, as Tuesday can easily continue lower

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro has moved down into the Weekly lows and December 50% levels, and as pointed out in the Weekly report, for any UP moves to play out a Daily HOOK pattern back above 1.4934 needs to occur.

At this stage i'm not sure whether this is a 1-day support level that ends up heading lower the next day, or Tuesday HOOKS back above.

for intra-day traders the pink filter is the trend guide

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD is going to be defined this week by this exact level @ 9152 (read Weekly report)

To confirm up moves there needs to be a close above the pink filter...

Euro Weekly and 5--day pattern

euro is below key levels in the higher timeframes...

for the euro to follow the Weekly report there needs to be a daily close back above the red 50% level @ 1.4936 (HOOK pattern), and potential higher Weekly close.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

5th Dec 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

USD index Quarterly and Weekly

USD index currently supported around the 4th Quarter lows, and the first Quarter will let us know whether USD Index is going to reverse towards the 2010 50% level or continue down into the Yearly lows.

Same pattern that has been occurring every month, rotation into the monthly 50% level, failure to breakout on Friday and then the trend continues down once again.

If Friday had closed above the Weekly highs & December 50% level, then I would say the USD is going to rise.

However, based on the price action it has to be back down once again next week.

AUD Monthly

As pointed out last week, the Weekly timeframe was still in November and this might have the AUD consolidating until the end of this week.

There's an October high breakout, with the expectation price is going to complete the move into the December highs (2-month wave pattern)

Next week's trend is simply based on price trading on the side of 91.43.

If above there's an expectation of a 1 week UP move into the highs.

Daily report out on Monday

Euro Monthly

Euro has completed the 2 month wave pattern during this quarter, based on the September breakout.

Next week is simply based on the price action and lower weekly open using 1.4875 as the trend guide.

GBP monthly and Weekly

The same price action in the GBP.

As we can see the Weekly close is below the Weekly 50% level but above the monthly 50% levels.

If GBP is going to move higher, the first thing we need to see is a Daily HOOK pattern back above the Weekly 50% levels, which should then lead into a higher Weekly close by Friday.

In conclusion:- i'm expecting higher prices in currencies because the USD Index has failed once again to have a Weekly close above key levels in the market.

The Key levels in currencies will be the Red Monthly 50% levels, and if above there's an expectation that the trends will continue towards higher Friday closes.

Daily reports out on Monday

4th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD & Euro Weekly

At this stage I would treat currencies as coming down into the Weekly 50% levels.

If there's one last push upwards in December, it's going to be next week's 50% level, which aligns with the Weekly bar chart moving into the December timeframe.

Weekly report out tomorrow

3rd December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral filter

Upward trend but not whilst price is below the pink filter.

Support 91.64

no probability for Thursday



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Upward bias, and at this stage whilst price is above the pink filter the expectation is to continue to move up towards the weekly highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

2nd December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation that prices should continue higher towards the Weekly highs and December highs.

There is a breakout on the channels in the spiral range, and this should continue higher.

However, around .9274 will be a pink filter...

that's either going to push the market higher once again

or reverse back down into the 50% level @ 9152 (monthly balance point again)

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Random resistance weekly highs @ 1.5149

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT