22nd October 2010 ,EURO AUD, Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trading around higher timeframe resistance levels, but it’s not dropping and breaking support levels.

There is a bias to continue down on Friday, as long as it remains below .9724

However, I’m not sure whether it’s going to breakout of Friday’s lows…

Or simply find support @ .9622 and then swing back upwards early next week.



Euro Weekly and Daily range.

My view is for the euro to continue down, but there isn’t an ideal ‘short trade set-up based on the current price action:-

Resistance @ `1.3971 to 1.4003

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st October 2010 ,USD,EURO AUD, Daily

USD Index

This week's expectation was a 3rd Week reversal beginning with 2-days.

However, as pointed out in the weekly report, the 3-quarterly levels will have a big bearing on whether the USD goes up, or it remains range bound.

One thing for sure, it looks like it's going lower into 2011

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The price patterns in the USD index helps somewhat in giving reason why currencies haven't gone lower.

The euro can go lower on Thursday or at least remain range bound below 1.3993.

but it can also continue to push upwards.

no probability in which direction the euro takes.

Use the levels for the next 12 hours.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Wednesday failed to continue down as part of the larger cycle
reversal pattern from .9979 and Tuesday’s breakout

My Preferred pattern was for AUD to move up into .9814 and the spiral
top during the first 12 hours and get sold down during the US time zone.

Except the opposite occurred, and the US time zone pushed price higher
85 pips

I would like to think price will continue down based on the larger
cycle patterns, but based on the current price action Thursday can
push upwards.

Because of the October high patterns I'm reluctant to trade any longs

Trend guide 98.90

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th October 2010 AUD, Daily PART 2

AUD part 2 15:40

There is a breakout in the 5-day low on Tuesday, therefore there is an expectation that the AUD is moving down into Wednesday's lows, as part of a larger timeframe reversal pattern

Whilst price is above 97.05 is it moving upwards during the 12 hour period.

There are two possible patterns:-

#1 hits the daily 50% level @ 9777 stalls and then moves back down into .9705  (and lower)

#2 or it follows a spike upwards into the next spiral filter @ .9814, which will then be an ideal level to short trade from....

As it matches the breakout from Yesterday's lows, retesting it and hopefully moving back down with a spiral top.

if short or holding shorts from Yesterday, you don't want to see price above .9815

20th October 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Breakout of Tuesday's lows and heading down into Wednesday's lows

Random support @ 1.3625-43. (first 12 hours)

Trend guide @ 1.3772 (first 12 hours)

Note;- we are trading a larger trend reversal that has a bias to move down into a lower Friday close.

This could see the 3-week lows support the euro @ 1.3449.

Or it can see the 3-week lows breakout and continue to trend lower this week, as part of a larger reversal pattern towards the 3-month 50% levels.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Same applies on the AUD:- trend guide 9725-31

random support Wednesday's lows, which matches the weekly lows

There is a larger trend reversal pattern that can see the AUD much lower this week by Friday, as per Weekly report

19th October 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

current price action on Tuesday is part of a 2nd day reversal pattern down from the October highs.

Trend guide @ 1.3979. (5-day 50% level on Tuesday)

if the trend is going to follow a reversal pattern, then Tuesday needs to breakout of the 5-day lows and continue to trend lower:- below the Weekly 50% level

If Tuesday's 5-day lows support the market (Weekly 50% level), then this week could move into another tight 5-day range pattern.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies in the AUD

needs to be trading below .9876 and breaking out of Tuesday's lows .9798

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th October 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, the expectation is to move down, whilst below the Weekly levels.

i'm not expecting Monday to breakout of any support levels, but if the trend is going down, then Tuesday should be the day that breaks out of the 5-day lows

Trend guide Monday's 5-day 50% level and 1.3993

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Sam applies on the AUD ....

Trend guide .9890

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15 October 2010 ,USD, Euro AUD, GBP, Weekly

USD Index

my view is a swing upwards during the 3rd or 4th Week of this month.

The first sign will be price trading above 77.85

target will be the November 50% level.

or price can continue to consolidate for the rest of this month below the 4th Quarter lows @ 78.36.

however, what we see in most currencies is the 5-day Friday patterns, which can start the week with a 2-day reversal pattern that may break support levels (5-day range)

Euro monthly and Weekly

Friday 5-day high, can lead to the next 2-days moving lower.

Trend guide @ 1.3993.

AUD monthly and weekly

Same 5-day Friday highs.

trend guide .9890

GBP monthly and Weekly

Same pattern:- trend guide 1.5973

Eur/USD 15th October 2010

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

trend is simply defined by 1.4025.

If above it can move back towards the friday highs and Weekly highs @ 1/4164

however, whilst below the trend guide is down into support @ 1.396-73.

If it breaks out of that level, then the trend bias is to continue down into a lower Friday close.

This is based on the possibility that the USD index begins to climb upwards during the 3rd week of the month, which hasn't been confirmed as yet.

AUD/USD report below

AUD/USD 15th October 2010

AUD monthly and daily range

AUD currently stalled around the October highs @ 9979, and I would have

preferred Thursday to have moved down further and be trading around

.9840 (#3) then where it is now.

Trend guide for the next 12 hours as shown in the right chart

@ .9945/54.

 

As mentioned two days ago… “at this stage I

would focus on 41 to 85 pip ranges”

What we can see in the bottom chart is a 85 pip reversal from the highs in the left chart on Thursday, but as the trend is reversing down we have.... (right chart)

41 pip spiral tops occurring providing traders with amply opportunities of getting back into the trend (if you were screen trading overnight)



The idea is to find ‘observed phenomena’ and use it to your advantage

once the parameters align:- sell higher opens using resistance & buy

lower opens using support, whilst optimizing the daily price action within

the larger timeframe cycles.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th October 2010 , USD Euro & AUD, Daily

USD Index

USD index trading around the October lows and my view is that the Index will try and swing back towards the November 50% level and then continue down again.

If that's going to happen then it's going to align with the 3-Week of the month, with price trading above next week's 50% levels.

At this stage there is still the possibility that the Index can push down into the Weekly lows

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

The euro can continue to trend higher towards the Weekly lows, but there's isn't an ideal long trade today.

Support remains 1.3949.

much less so if the market is reversing down from Thursday's highs in the US timezone.

Bearish pattern would be trading below support on Thursday

AUD monthly and Weekly

Target on AUD will complete @ 9979, which aligns with Thursday's highs.

My view is a potential 3rd week reversal pattern (next week), but I need to see lesser timeframe patterns to help verify the pattern.

I think AUD will continue to trend upwards and break parity, but the most robust trending pattern (after .9979) is to see the market reverse down and then continue higher from November's 50% level