12th MARCH 2011, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Monthly and Weekly

Last week's view was that there was a potential up swing early in the week and back into the Weekly 50% level.

Current expectation is that the USD is moving down in the MARCH lows next week.

Once it get to those lows, I'm not sure whether it will continue down, or once again find some support until the start of the 2nd Quarter in April

Euro monthly and Weekly

Last week's view was that the Euro would move back down in the first 2-days and retest the breakout.

That played out, but then Thursday continued lower, until Friday's late reversal upwards.

Next week's expectation is to continue upwards....

However, any strength in the euro will be determined by the upper Weekly level @ 1.3954, as the trend continues towards 1.4086

AUD Weekly and daily range

There has been MARCH 50% level support, and now there's a bias to continue towards the MARCH highs @ 1.03.

However, we once again have the upper Weekly levels, that continually stall the trend.

There's a Friday low pattern, which once again suggests the first 2-days will rise upwards
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What I notice is that, Friday's rally has put price above the intraday channel highs (white)

Those highs have been stalling the price from rising during the day

Therefore next week's level at 1.01 is the trend guide and support.

As long as price remains above the Weekly 50% level

11th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

My view yesterday was that the Euro would push upwards, as long as it remained above 1.3898.

That changed with a breakout of Thursday's lows, confirmed with more weakness in the 2nd 12 hour range towards the channel lows.

There are two possible patterns on Friday....

Continues down towards Friday's lows, which matches the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3704

or it swings upwards in the frist 12 hours and retests the breakout, using 1.3845-56 as resistance


AUD Weekly and Daily range

Completes the move down into the MARCH 50% level @ .9993

There are two possible patterns on Friday...

continues down into Friday's lows @ .9965

or price swing back towards 1. 0035

if price is above that level during the 2nd 12 hours, then there is a possible swing back towards the 2nd 12 hour channel highs

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro is remaining above the previous week highs, and if the trend is going to move back towards the highs, then Thursday's level @ 1.3898 is the trend guide and support


AUD Weekly and Daily

Yesterday's view was that Wednesday could move lower if it was trading below the Weekly 50% level, which it did for a number of hours, until buyers pushed price back above.

Based on the levels in the daily range, there's no probability pattern.

White channel lows and highs are seen as random support and resistance levels for Thursday.

Trend guide remains the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0087

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro has reversed down over the first 2 days, as part of a Friday high reversal pattern and retesting last week's breakout @ 1.3878

Normally we would see the euro swing back towards the highs, and then continue towards the Weekly highs by Friday or next week

However, the Monthly highs in March could see further weakness.

Today:- during the first 12 hours until 11pm (Sydney time)there isn't an ideal set-up to trade other than looking for a 41 pip move in the euro towards the channel highs, using the brown filter as a trend guide


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern


At the start of the week I was looking for the first 2 days to move upwards.

Yesterday I had the view that price would push downward because of the intra-day break pattern.

The first 2-days has now completed, but instead of moving higher it has moved into a 2-day 'stall' pattern, which can often see further weakness over the next 3-days.

However, there isn't a set-up to be trading shorts during the first 12 hours, and as long as it's above the weekly 50% level, Wednesday could push back towards the channel highs, which has been a resistance pattern for the past 2 weeks @ 1.0161

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily

Based on the current price action, the euro looks to be following a move down from the March highs and rotating back towards the lower Weekly level.

This is to retest last week's breakout @ 1.3878

trend guide to keep an eye on is the lower channel in the daily range @ 1.3960, if below it's part of a down day.

We currently have a breakout of the channel low @ 1.3974 in Monday's daily range, which suggests more short-term weakness.

Any intra-day strength during the first 12 hours and resistance is around the daily channel highs.

AUD Weekly and Daily range

I was looking for more strength on Monday, as part of Friday's support pattern.

Instead, we once again have 2nd 12 hour resistance patterns in the daily range, resulting in a daily channel break, which can push lower on Tuesday.

Whilst the AUD remains above the Weekly 50% level, Tuesday is still seen as a potential 2nd UP day, but at this stage I don't have a high probability 'long' set-up using the daily range.

Therefore, the support is the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0087, with an intra-day trend guide @ 1.0135 (random resistance)

In conclusion:- if Tuesday remains choppy resulting in a 2nd 'stall' day, then from Wednesday onwards we could see selling pressure on the AUD

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

As per Weekly report:- Friday's 5-day support pattern often suggests a trend that continues upwards over the next 2-days.

Trend guide @ 11am @ 1.0144

A breakout of the Weekly highs by Tuesday, suggest mores gains

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Two pattern play to start the week...

either it continues towards the Weekly highs....

or moves down into a 2-day reversal pattern.

no probability in which direction, use the levels in the daily range

5th MARCH 2011, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index Monthly & Weekly

Currently trading around the Monthly lows, and with the possibility that the trend follows a double monthly low in MARCH.

Short-term pattern could see a swing back towards the Weekly 50% level next week


Euro Monthly and Weekly

moving up towards the first Quarter highs ;- with random resistance around 1.4096.

Note:- there is a 5-day high pattern on Friday, which could see a swing back down towards the trailing Weekly level @ 1.3878, as part of retesting this week's high breakout.

If that happens early next week, then we look for the trend to move towards the highs.

otherwise, above 1.4120 and it's part of the Weekly break and extend pattern towards this week's high, which matches the first Quarter highs.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

I'm still looking for more gains in the AUD towards the MARCH highs.

The important pattern was on Friday and the 5-day low support.

This favours an upward bias during the first 2-days next week....

Let's see if by Tuesday the price is trading above the Weekly highs

4th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro moving up into the MARCH highs, which match Friday's highs (random resistance).

There is a breakout of the Weekly highs this, and I would look for a continuation of the trend up towards next week's highs.

This could happen two way....

#1 Friday trends upwards and makes higher highs next week.

#2 Friday's highs stalls and we look for a 2-day reversal pattern into the Trailing weekly lows or 5-day lows, as support.

AUD Weekly and Daily range

I was looking for more gains on AUD on Thursday, but the upper levels stalled the market from rising.

We can see a tightening of the 5-day range, which could lead to trend moving down and testing the 5-day lows as support, as the next set-up for a potential move towards the MARCH highs.

Because of the brown filter, I don't have an ideal set-up for a trending day (UP).

Keep in mind that the AUD is trading above higher timeframe 50% level, therefore the expectation is to continue higher

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

2nd March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Trading around the weekly highs, but more importantly it's rising up from 1.3759-66.

Based on the daily range:- support levels as shown using the channel highs @ 1.3846.

Random resistance Thursday's highs

AUD Weekly and daily range

Early resistance on Wednesday, but buying support in the 2nd 12 hours looks to be setting Thursday as an UP day...

Trend guide and support daily 50% levels and brown filter.

Random resistance Thursday's highs.

However, there's the expectation that the AUD is moving up towards 1.262 by Friday (single monthly highs)....

And then the MARCH highs by next week.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

2nd March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

As mentioned in the weekly report... 1.3766 is the critical level on the Euro.

This will see the Euro either continue higher this week...

or there's a possible reversal back down into the Weekly 50% level, and then down into the support levels.

Today:- Wednesday's channel lows @ 1.3755-66 will give all of us an idea of whether the market will continue higher or not.

The first 12 hours doesn't support a trending day upwards....

AUD Weekly and daily

AUD looks to be moving down into the 5-day 50% level and 12 hour channel lows.

first 12 hours doesn't provide an ideal set-up for a trending day upwards

With the price action in Weekly charts suggesting resistance and more weakness...

don't trade longs below the 5-day 50% level @ 1.0112

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT