AUD/USD Forex Report 3rd March 2015 Monthly report

AUD/USD Primary & Weekly cycles

Support resides around .7555-7567

Price continues to consolidate around the 2015 lows, without reaching MAJOR Support around .7567

Unless there's a breakout above the Monthly & Quarterly 50% level @ .7937, there is a bias to move lower.

Keep an eye on next week's Weekly lows, as a thrust pattern upwards from those lows (Random support) and a breakout above the Weekly highs, can see a Quarterly recovery towards .8311

Commodity prices holding back the AUD (Read GOLD & Silver Reports)

AUD/USD Forex Report 9th February 2015

AUD Primary & Weekly cycles

AUD followed the Weekly break and extend pattern into the Weekly lows, and is now likely to follow the pattern down into the February lows @ .7563 and a MAJOR SUPPORT Zone, that also aligns with a number of other timeframe Support zones.

Primary Support, Quarterly Support, Monthly Support, & Weekly lows

Therefore Support resides around .7555-7567

AUD/USD 28 January 2015 Primary Cycles

AUD Primary cycles

The Primary cycles in the AUD was always going to continue down into the 2014 lows and then follow a 2 period cycle pattern towards the 2015 lows.  

The large Primary cycle has now completed, reaching the 2015 lows @ .7861, and when we compare the current price action with the price action in the Precious Metals (GOLD & Silver), there is very good reason why the AUD can now begin to rise upwards.  (READ Previous Report)

To confirm the long term view of AUD finding support, there needs to be a breakout of the 3-week highs, or a move above the February 50% level around .8230 to help validate the current price action.

Primary & Weekly cycles

Short-term cycles have a Weekly breakout @ .8044 , Weekly 50% level rejection, and now likely to follow the trend down into this week's lows and then February lows next week, as part of a break & extend pattern

AUD/USD 1st January 2015 Primary Cycle Report

AUD Primary cycles

The Primary cycles in the AUD was always going to continue down into the 2014 lows and then follow a 2 period cycle pattern towards the 2015 lows. 

This view was based on the Dilernia Principle of Break & extend pattern in 2013 lows, heading down into the 2014 lows, and then follow another principle of a 2-timeframe wave pattern:- 2015 lows

All that information is found in my books.

http://thetradingbook.blogspot.com.au/

As we can see the DEC lows has supported price, but it is now likely to follow a January pattern down into .7951, and then make its way towards .7861 as the 2nd target in the Primary cycle

This is the next long term BUY zone, however it would not surprise me to see the AUD dip as low as .7621 in the 2nd Quater before institutional buying comes in to Support the AUD and sell the US dollar.

This also fits in with Metals following the same patterns of long term Support. (Read Gold & Silver)

 http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com.au/

 

AUD/USD Report 17th December 2015

AUD Primary & Secondary cycles

 

Trend bias is to continue lower into 2015...

 

Potentially some support coming into December lows around .8139, but expected further weakness into .78cents

AUD/USD December 2014 Monthly Report

AUD Primary Cycles

 

As I've been saying for a while now, the AUD is heading down into the 2014 lows (now reached), and likely to follow a double Primary Trend into the 2015 Lows.

 

The 2015 lows will complete the double Primary wave pattern that will help under pin the AUD for a few quarters.

AUD/USD Monthly Report 20/10/2014

The current price action is following a retest pattern, where it retests last year's breakout that often aligns with the Yearly 50% level. Once that completes, my view is that the AUD will resume its downward trend towards the 2014 lows.

Previous Monthly Report

AUD Primary cycles

 

As we can see the AUD has tested the 2014 50% level and failed, as part of the Primary cycle break and extend pattern from the 2013 lows towards the 2014 lows.  (minimum move .8564 towards .8310).

 

Current resistance is around the monthly 50% levels @.8930, as part of the monthly break and extend pattern from September lows to the November lows.

 

 

Long term trend will be define by the next Primary cycle in 2015, and whether those cycles dip lower, as the AUD is currently in a 2 period Primary Cycle downward trend.

AUD/USD Forex Monthly Report 7th April 2014

 

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

 

My view was that the AUD would continue lower, as part of the Dilernia Principle with the Primary cycles.

 However, it has done the opposite, and has broken out within the Monthly cycles in the last month of the Quarter, which suggests the trend will continue higher in the 2nd Quarter.

 

This suggests that the trend will continue up into the April highs, and into the 2014 Yearly 50% level @ .9449.

 

 

http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/gold-silver-7th-april-2014-monthly.html

 

However, my view is that is will follow a similar pattern as GOLD (click the above link)

 

The current price action is following a retest pattern, where it retests last year''s breakout that often aligns with the Yearly 50% level. Once that completes, my view is that the AUD will resumes its downward trend towards the 2014 lows.

 

 

 

AUD/USD 3rd March 2014 Monthly Report

1st Quarter Support @ 87.01 and expectation it is rising back towards the 50% levels...

A slow rise up into the end of March, and then a continuation down from around .9092 & down into the 2014 lows 8560, as part of the Primary break & extend pattern into the 2014 lows. (Previous Report)

AUD/Weekly Primary and Monthly cycles

Primary cycles suggests the AUD will continue down into the 2014 lows, as part of the break -n - extend pattern from the 2013 yearly lows (Dilernia Principle)

Monthly cycles in February also playing their part, as it forms resistance....

As long as it remains below the MARCH 50% level @ .8918, the trend bias is down.

if it breaks above the 5-day highs, then it's retesting the Quarterly 50% @ 9092.

AUD/USD 4th February 2014 Monthly Report

AUD/USD Primary & Monthly cycles

1st Quarter Support @ 87.01 and expectation it is rising back towards the 50% levels...

That means a swing as high as .9335 by the end of MARCH or sooner, and then a continuation up towards .9440 sometime in the 2nd Quarter.

Or....

A slow rise up into the end of March, and then a continuation down from around .9092 & down into the 2014 lows .8560, as part of the Primary break & extend pattern