FOREX GBP/USD Weekly 12th July 2008

"GBP has reversed back down into July's 50% level.

In an UP trending market, there is an expectation that a lower Weekly close into higher timeframe 50% levels can begin a 'thrust' pattern Upwards, as prices rise up from a lower Weekly open next week.

A lower weekly close verifies support, and a lower weekly open rising upwards is confirming the trend within this currently monthly timeframe.

If that is the case then my expectation is prices are moving towards 2.0102, over the next 3 weeks"

Previous Weekly Report



GBP Weekly and Daily charts

Technically GBP moved higher during the week, but over the 5-days of trading GBP was choppy compared to the Euro/USD.

It wasn't until the 'hook' day on Wednesday that the Weekly analysis started to play out.

As pointed out on Friday in the Premium Report:-

"Currently price is above the monthly 50% level, Weekly 50% level, and 5-day 50% level, along with the filter, which suggests an UP day."

And Friday confirmed the Weekly view of prices rising higher by Friday and continuing towards 2.0102

Next Week:-

Weekly highs resistance, and more of the same of price rotating back towards the Weekly 50% level and then looking to move higher into 2.0102, which is currently a major resistance zone on the spread.


FOREX EUR/USD 11th July 2008 part 2

Euro daily

Euro completes the move to the Weekly highs, afer finding support around the higher timeframe 50% levels this week.

FOREX EUR/USD 11th July 2008

"So far the Euro is following the Weekly set-up, and has broken out of the 3-day filter:- (bounce off higher timeframe 50% level and continue higher into Friday)

In theory price should remain above the breakout level and continue higher on Thursday.

High Risk Trading longs below the 5-day 50% level on Thursday".

Yesterday's Report

EURO Daily and 3-day pattern

EURO has continued to follow the Weekly Trend higher after finding support this week.

Thursday pushed back down into the 5-day 50% level, and has followed the breakout pattern higher.

There is no probability pattern for Friday, as the expectation is that price will continue higher.

Simply trade the levels.

EUR/USD Weekly Report tomorrow



      • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

    • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




      • FOREX AUD/USD 11th July 2008

      "If the AUD is going to continue down on Thursday, it should be pushing down from the 3-day filter and trading below the 5-day 50% level. (Weekly Drops)

      high Risk trading 'shorts' above the 3-day filter :-

      Trading longs above the 3-day filter on Thursday isn't a probability pattern"

      Yesterday's report


      AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

      AUD formed a 'hook' day above the Weekly 50% level on Wednesday, but because the previous 3-days were playing out precisely based on the Weekly 'drop' pattern, Thursday was view as a down down because it was still trading below the 3-day filter.....

      3-day filter

      Thursday broke higher,which wasn't part of my set-up, and now the Weekly 'drop' pattern is null and void based on the expectation of price closing lower on Friday.

      No probability pattern from Friday, simply trade the levels shown.

      Weekly Report tomorrow.



                    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

                  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

                    • FOREX EUR/USD 10th July 2008

                    "The 3-day filter has caught up with price, which often suggests that a breakout of the 5-day 50% level and continuation upwards is a probability pattern, which is part of the Weekly set-up.

                    However more often than not, price will push down a minimum 41 pips from that same level.

                    Therefore expectation that the 5-day 50% level can form resistance and push down during the Euro hours, and if price is going to continue higher, as part of the Weekly set-up, then more often than not it will break higher in the US day session."

                    Yesterday's Report


                    Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

                    Euro pushed up into the 5-day 50% level reversed down 41 pips, and then continued higher in the US session, back towards Wednesday's highs....


                    Euro 3-day filter

                    So far the Euro is following the Weekly set-up, and has broken out of the 3-day filter.

                    In theory price should remain above the breakout level and continue higher on Thursday.

                    High Risk Trading longs below the 5-day 50% level on Thursday.

                    Trading shorts below the 5-day 50% level isn't a probability pattern




                    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT


                  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT






                    • FOREx AUD/USD 10th July 2008

                    "Because Tuesday has found support, and price hasn't re-tested the break, then the expectation is that Wednesday is pushing back towards the 5-day 50% level, and could go as high as the 3-day filter @ 9587.

                    Note: keep in mind that there are 'drops' in the weekly timeframe which favours a lower close by Friday, therefore Wednesday is viewed as an UP day, and then look for a continuation downwards from a higher Daily open on Thursday"

                    Yesterday's report



                    AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

                    AUD pushed lower on Wednesday and then reversed back up towards the 5-day 50% level and hitting the 3-day filter and stalling.

                    As pointed out in yesterday's report....

                    If the AUD is going to continue down on Thursday, it should be pushing down from the 3-day filter and trading below the 5-day 50% level.

                    high Risk trading short's above the 3-day filter :-

                    Trading longs above the 3-day filter on Thursday isn't a probability pattern.




                    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

                  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




                    • FOREX EUR/USD 9th July 2008

                    Euro daily and 3-day pattern

                    Euro still trading around the higher timeframe 50% levels, and still hasn't made a decision on which way price will go in July.

                    The Weekly set-up had an UP bias after bouncing off Monday's lows, but Tuesday's view was to push back down.

                    The redeeming pattern was that Tuesday didn't push down much further, therefore the UP bias in the euro is still in play.




                    Euro 3-day pattern


                    Wednesday is going to be defined by the intra-day filter (right chart), if above the expectation is price is rotating back towards the 5-day 50% level.

                    The 3-day filter (left chart), has caught up with price, which often suggests that a breakout of the 5-day 50% level and continuation upwards is a probability pattern, which is part of the Weekly set-up.

                    However more often than not, price will push down a minimum 41 pips from that same level.

                    Therefore expectation that the 5-day 50% level can form resistance and push down during the Euro hours, and if price is going to continue higher, as part of the Weekly set-up, then more often than not it will break higher in the US day session.

                    Note:- Weekly set-up will fail if prices rotate down 41 pips from the 5-day 50% level and continue back down into Wednesday's lows, then I would have to wait until Friday closes to set-up the next probability pattern.

                    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT


                  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT





                    • FOREX AUD/USD 9th July 2008

                    AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

                    Expectation that the AUD would continue down into Tuesday's low, however the pattern I was looking for was a re-test of the 5-day 50% level and then a continuation down.

                    Because Tuesday has found support, and price hasn't re-tested the break, then the expectation is that Wednesday is pushing back towards the 5-day 50% level, and could go as high as the 3-day filter @ 9587.

                    Note: keep in mind that there are 'drops' in the weekly timeframe which favours a lower close by Friday, therefore Wednesday is viewed as an UP day, and then look for a continuation downwards from a higher Daily open on Thursday, with the expectation that price is moving back towards the July 50%.



                    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
                  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT





                    • FOREX AUD/USD 8th July 2008 part 2



                    AUD daily and 3-day chart

                    AUD continues down into Tuesday's lows, but not from the Sell zone of the 50% level....

                    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
                  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




                    • FOREX EUR/USD 8th July 2008 part 2



                    Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

                    Tuesday pushing down from the 5-day 50% level.

                    Tuesday isn't part a 'SHORT' probability pattern, because of the view that the higher timeframe 50% levels would support price on Monday, and then continue higher on Tuesday confirmed with a breakout.

                    But that now this looks less likely, as price is being pushed down and there isn't anything to verify an UP day, unless price breaks higher.

                    Higher risk trading longs on Tuesday.

                    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
                  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




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