FOREX GBP/USD 22nd August 2008

GBP Daily:-

Breakout of the 3-day high, but compared to other spreads the GBP is still below the Weekly balance point (red).

The bias of the 3-day Breakout onThursday is to continue higher on Friday, which could see GBP move as high as the Weekly breakout from last week @ 1.9000..

No probability pattern on Friday:- I would wait until Friday closes and look for a set-up from Monday.

Support 5-day 50% level....




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  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




    • FOREX AUD/USD 21st August 2008 part 3



    AUD 18:14

    AUD moved up from the 5-day 50% level, completed the R41 pip range, and now has reversed back down into support.

    As long as the first exit strategy is around 41 pip completion, then any other positions can be run to your own trailing stops.

    either breakeven entry ( no loss).

    either dollar stop (no gain/ no loss).

    Personally stopped on breakeven and won't trade again until tomorrow even though it's still above support, which could rise from another R41 pip low and move higher after 19:00

    FOREX AUD/USD 21st August 2008 part 2



    AUD daily...(15:50)

    Expectation that AUD is rising up towards Thursday's highs...

    Ideally I wanted a test and support off the 5-day 50% level on Thursday, but it's not happening.

    small position on the upside..

    FOREX GBP/USD 21st August 2008 part 2



    GBP 15:30

    Here is a perfect example of conflicting patterns:- I wanted to trade longs off the 5-day 50% level with matching brown filter..

    So far so good...and the short-term UP target is the 3-day filter

    Because I'm using 240 minute bars, I have a rough guesstimate that price should push up from 15:00 until 19:00, hopefully it will reach my target...

    A bullish pattern can continue higher from 7.00pm:- if it was in a BULL trend it would be much more robust but it's not.

    It's a bear trend....

    My odds begin to swing against me even though I'm in the money after 19:00 if price starts to trade below the filter.

    Note:- this is just a intra-day pattern within the 3-day cycle that could provide a 41 pip return and more, but it's not a Major probability pattern within the Weekly trend.

    FOREX AUD/USD 21st August 2008

    AUD Daily

    AUD rejection from the 3-day filter on Wednesday, but the past two rejection trades and AUD isn't getting the full 90-95pip reveral follow through. (first exits always 41 pips)

    Thursday:- AUD looks to be heading higher towards the 3-day highs on Thursday with the 5-day 50% level support...

    Thursday could push down lower from the 5-day 50% level, because of the Weekly trend breakout, therefore it's imperative to have matching 5-day 50% level and brown filter support to confirm any UP move.





    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT


  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT





    • FOREX EUR/USD 21st August 2008

    EURO:-

    Euro pushed down from the 5-day 50% level and back into the 3-day filter high.

    As mentioned yesterday:- I would prefer to trade longs on Thursday if the 3-day filter supports Wednesday, which it has.

    Thursday:- 5-day 50% level support, but at this stage looks range bound between the levels.

    Thursday could push down lower from the 5-day 50% level, because of the Weekly trend so it's imperative to have matching 5-day 50% level and brown filter support to confirm any UP move.





    • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




    • FOREX GBP/USD 21st August 2008

    GBP Daily

    Yesterday was about trading on the side of the 3-day filter.

    Thursday:- looks range bound once again, which could see price rise from the 5-day 50% level up towards the 3-day filter and highs, as this week consolidates.

    There could be a push down on Thursday from the 5-day 50% level, but I would sit out GBP unless you were closely monitoring the spread :- each way bet.





      • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

    • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




      • FOREX AUD/USD 20th August 2008 part 2



      AUD 11:15

      Push down from the 3-day filter and Weekly resistance levels, and into the 5-day 50% level....

      It's either going to continue down today:- or find support and break higher during GMT or US time...

      Personally I would partial exit at this level and run stops above the 3-day filter...

      Price could end up back down into the Weekly lows if it continues down..

      This 4 hour period into 15:00pm should give a few clues, if it closes below the 5-day 50% level, then there could be further weakness.

      If it's still above the 5-day 50% level, then any shorts are open to risk on a breakout above the 3-day filter.

      FOREX EUR/USD 20th August 2008

      EURO Daily

      As pointed out yesterday, there is eventually going to be a breakout of the 3-day highs and price is going to rotate back towards September's 50% level.

      We can see in the Euro that price is trading and closing above the 3-day highs.

      However, price is trading trading below the Weekly breakout from last week, and also below the Weekly balance point. (Resistance).

      It's too early to tell whether any currencies are going to continue higher even with Tuesday's price action.

      No probability pattern on Wednesday:- but Wednesday's highs do match the Weekly resistance levels, which could see price reverse back down into the 3-day high filter on Wednesday:- support



      I would be more bullish to see a reversal down from Wednesday's highs, find support (3-day filter) and then for price to continue higher on Thursday.

      • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

    • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




      • FOREX AUD/USD 20th August 2008

      AUD Daily

      Weekly balance point resistance, but as pointed out currencies will begin to rotate back towards the August breakouts.

      It's a bit early to tell whether it will be on Wednesday, but if it is, it should be supported above the 5-day 50% level and trading above the 3-day filter during GMT hours and moving towards Wednesday's highs.

      No probability pattern on Wednesday other than trading on the side of the 5-day 50% level (brown filter)

      It's either going to continue higher and follow Wednesday highs, or remain in a tight sideways pattern (choppy) :- Weeky breakout and Weekly balance point resistance.


      • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

    • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT




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