3rd June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

No Probability pattern on Wednesday.

Tuesday high breakout should push upwards on Wednesday Random length.

Yesterday I was looking for a push down, but once the first 4 hour period failed to move down from the 3-day filter I moved on from trading the AUD




Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Tuesday I was bullish around the Yellow filter with an expectation of higher prices.

There was an early 4 hour support and a 41 pip UP move, but then it failed with a false move downward.

Today:- Price is heading UP into June highs, but how it gets there on Wednesday is what we should be trading.

Above the Yellow then it's going higher, this is also matched with a close above Tuesday's highs

However, my ideal pattern to trade longs is always to move down into 3-day filter support and then continue higher.

Therefore for day traders it's simply to trade on the side of the Yellow filter.

• All Daily forex reports are written befre 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12nd June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD pushed higher on Monday into the 3-day filter.

I have a view of higher prices in the AUD, but I would also like to see a reversal down to retest Friday's break or at least into the 5-day 50% level

2nd day reversal down after Monday's UP move should be defined by the 3-day filter on Tuesday




Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro is already trading near the 5-day high breakout from Friday.

Tuesday is an each way bet based on the Yellow filter...

It can push price down, but it also can rise up towards Tuesday's 5-day highs once again

• All Daily forex reports are written before11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

1st June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

We have a MAY high breakout trying to move up into June highs,

But we also have a Friday high breakout, which we would like to see retest
before price continues higher

Any 2-day stall is part of a rotation towards Friday's 5-day high breakout.

Therefore Sunday and Monday should be part of that view until price retests
the Friday high breakout and 5-day 50% level.

But if that fails and Monday continues higher we know why it's failing, because the larger trend of a MAY high breakout is in play moving towards June highs.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation on the euro and the AUD.

Support:- Sunday's 3-day filter @ 1.3989

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Forex AUD, EUR, 30 MAY 2009

I would have preferred text book set-ups to trade the moves upwards:- BUY MAY support, but it's not always the case.

Once the MAY high breakouts occurred last week the view was to continue with the break and move into the June highs.

Think of the MAY high breakout like a 5-day high break:- price moves from the break and hits the new 5-day high and stalls, with the potential that price can reverse down into the 5-day 50% level.

But that reversal down into the Monthly 50% level has more chance happening in July than June, simply because MAY high breakout can support price.

I expect the June high to stall price from rising much further, but a larger reversal down might take a number of weeks to play out.

For traders we simply look for and trade high probability patterns.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Heading higher into June highs after the breakout of MAY highs.

Looking for a high probability pattern to trade longs didn't play out was hoped for when you compared the Euro and NYMEX OIL.

Those two moved down into the 5-day lows which matched the MAY high breakouts, providing the ideal set-ups.

Whereas AUD didn't.

AUD 5-day pattern

Being a higher Weekly open last week there was an expectation of a 2-day reversal pattern.

The 3-day filter provided robust set-ups to take pips out of the range, as this was part of the view.

The rest of the Week wasn't even on Friday because the lack of moving down into support earlier in the Week.

Next Week:-

Friday high breakout, expectation a push up into the highs on Monday and a move back down over 2-days to retest Friday's breakout.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Everthing about the euro last week was precise and played out withtext book patterns, even Friday's higher close

Euro 5-day pattern

Ideal resistance zones played out all Week until Thursday's 5-day lows, which matched the MAY high break.

And once again, the Red 3-day filter gave clarity of the trend and Weekly close, by simply waiting for the cross-over on Friday.

If that's one pattern you have to wait for all week to happen, then wait until the 3-day filter breaks.

Note:- I've dropped the GBP/USD from all future reports, as there are enough opportunites to trade in AUD & Euro

28th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Sideways trading pattern, with random 4 hour resistance levels around the 5-day and 3-day filters.

Ideally I would still like to see AUD come down and Test the 5-day lows before heading higher in June.

No probability pattern on Friday

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

The Euro came down into the MAY high break and Thursday's lows (5-day lows), and it should continue higher.

However, if i'm looking for a low Risk long on Friday there isn't once because of the 3-day filter.

My low risk longs always have to be trading above and then retesting the level with a 4 hour low, which means a 4 hour UP move and then next 4 hour comes down and verifies support.

Yellow filter and 5-day 50% level is the short-term trend guide

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Wednesday reversal down, but as pointed out in Yesterday's report, it wasn't a high probability pattern on the 3rd day.

Thursday:- Trading below the 5-day 50% level, and there can be a push down into support around the Weekly 50% levels and Thursday's lows.

If it hits Thursday's lows I would look for rotation up on Friday.

5-day 50% level & 3-day filter random resistance

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Pushing down into Support around the Weekly 50% levels.

If Thursday moves up early then I would look for the same 4 hour resistance patterns around Yellow resistance.

Don't short trade above the 5-day 50% level.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

no probability pattern at this stage.

Below the 5-day 50% level would attract some sellers down into 1.5777

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation of a 2-day stall/reversal down into Weekly 50% level support didn’t play out precisely.

But along the way the 3-day filters provided some resistance and profits in the short-term.

After the 2-day reversal there is a bias to continue higher due to the MAY high breakout.

Wednesday is hard to be trading longs around this level.

3-day filter resistance, which might provide 4 hour resistance into the 5-day 50% level.

But shorting now becomes higher risk on the 3rd day

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

The same 2-day stall pattern on the Euro, and now the bias is to going higher.

The 3-day filter can resist price once again, but limit trading any shorts on the 3rd day above the 3-day filter.

Note:- I won’t trade longs above the 3-day filter.

I would prefer to see the EURO continue up but come back down and retest the 3-day filter the next day before trading longs using the 3-day filter as support on Thursday.

Otherwise I would prefer to trade longs around the Weekly 50% level.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Same applies on the GBP

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage, my view is a 2-day stall/reversal pattern before prices continue higher, based on the MAY high breakout.

3-day filter trend guide.




Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation on Euro.

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation on GBP

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD weekly and 5-day pattern

most currencies against the USD have broken their MAY highs, with the expectation price is pushing up towards the June highs.

We also have higher Weekly opens, which often can pullback 2-days before the trend continues higher. This is also valid when prices rise into Friday's highs and stall.

When that happens there is a greater probability of a pullback into support (2-day), and then we look for 3rd day pattern long trades.

3-day filter trend guide & trade on the side of the Yellow

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Read AUD report and apply

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies to GBP.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Forex AUD, EUR, GBP 23 MAY 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

MAY high breakout and trading above the Yearly 50% level.

With the breakout of the MAY highs, then there is an expectation price will continue higher towards the JUNE highs, which will be determined at the end of next week's close (Monthly close)

Any short-term reversal patterns and the Weekly 50% levels should be used as support for a continuation higher.

Euro Monthly & Weekly

Euro hitting the Yearly 50% level, with the breakout of MAY highs.

Exact same expectation as the AUD...

Euro 5-day pattern

We can see the 3-day filter since Tuesday supporting the market with 4 hour low support.

Tuesday and Wednesday were high probability patterns, because of the view that price was rising towards higher timeframe levels:- Weekly and MAY highs.

Thursday was less so, because of price trading around those resistance levels, but nevertheless, it should have stopped traders trading 'shorts'.

And the same applied with Friday, because of the MAY high breakout.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Same breakout of MAY highs, and heading towards the Yearly 50% levels.

And same expectation as other currencies of heading higher into JUNE highs.

Daily Reports out on Monday