5 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD consolidating around resistance in the 5-day range, but whilst above the pink filter price can continue to move upwards another 2x85 bars towards the Weekly highs.

Any short-term pullback on Thursday would be defined by Support.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same potential move on the euro towards the Weekly highs.

Ideally a reversal down from Wednesday's highs and into support levels of the 50% level would be the best pattern for any higher moves on Thursday.

Support 1.4757-85

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

4 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD looks well supported after yesterday's down move and rotation back above the 50% level from the spiral low.

Trend guide 90.13

At this stage I'm still leaning towards AUD consolidating for this week

Wednesday's trading should be defined by the pink filter @ 90.48, which is either going to push AUD higher 85 pips, or once again reverse back down.

No probability pattern

Euro Weekly and spiral filter

Weekly low support but still below 50% levels.

no probability pattern on Wednesday:- trend guide 50% level @ 1.4737

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

3 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD weekly and 5-day pattern


AUD trading above higher timeframe support levels, but below the 3-day cycle highs and the 50% levels and spiral filters.

This week reminds me of a consolidating trading week, where price rises upwards closing above the 3-day highs but then reversing back down later in the week or early next week (consolidating 5-day range)

However, based on the spiral filters it doesn't favour going higher but more rotation on Tuesday.

Today the % rate announcement comes out @ 2.30pm, so it will push the AUD around.

Euro Weekly and spiral pattern

Above the higher timeframe support levels, but on Tuesday it doesn't favour going higher because of the spiral filters.

If Euro closes or trading below 1.4754 on Tuesday, this could result in a push downward into the 3-week lows.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

2 November 2009 AUD Euro GBP Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Currencies opening below the monthly balance points and selling down into November 50% levels.

The price action this week will be dependant these 50% levels, therefore any upside this week will only confirmed with Weekly HOOK patterns back above support levels.

Weekly HOOK:- early push down on Monday

And Tuesday normally swings upwards the closes above the Weekly 50% level and 5-DAY 50% LEVELS, resulting in a higher weekly close.

An UP move is also can be confirmed once above the 5-day 50% levels, but At this stage they are not.

Otherwise the trend is down (Weekly bar has a downward bias towards the Weekly lows

Euro Weekly and spiral filter

Euro lower open and below the monthly balance point with the bias to move down.

Spiral filter favours a higher move.

At this stage Monday's 5-day 50% level is the trend guide.

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

You know my view on GBP (Weekly report), but it needs to be trading above the 5-day 50% level for a move back towards the 3-day cycle highs.

If price can't then it's pushing down into the 5-day lows

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

31 October 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

USD Index

Work out what the S&P 500 is going to do and you can often do the opposite in Currencies.

S&P 500 hasn't closed below the 3-week lows and the USD hasn't closed above the 3-week highs, therefore November can continue to consolidate and move.

Based on Friday's close and October, it's hard to have a concrete conclusion that the dollar will continue to rise and the S&P continue down.

AUD monthly and Weekly

October closes above Ocrober highs, and November will be opening around the Weekly 50% level and a lower weekly open, which could see the AUD back around the Weekly highs by Friday.

Monday opens below support, and there could be another weekly timeframe that trends down.

Based on current price action the latter isn't a probability.

monday's 5-day patterns will give a much clearer view on direction next week.

Euro and Weekly

3-week low support would need to be above the Weekly 50% level can see a swing up towards the weekly highs again.

Would nned to see a weekly HOOK pattern ( Daily close above the weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level on the same day)

Breaks 3-week lows can see the Euro trend down all week.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

As per my view a couple of weeks ago, if GBP can consolidate above the monthly 50% level it is more likely to continue higher next month.

Support 1.6398

target Weekly highs and November highs

don't trade longs below 1.6282

30th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and monthly


Currencies follow the US Equity markets closely, and as I expected US markets to continue down and not up, I wasn't expecting Currencies to continue higher on Thursday.

I was bearish on the AUD below the Weekly 50% level, but no follow through from .9040, instead price has moved back into the previous 3-day cycle breaout @ 92.00

Once again currencies will follow Index markets closely on Friday (read US recap Report)

Either Friday opens higher and swings down from 92 cents and into a lower close...

Or Friday continues to rally up from the 50% level and completes another R85 point rise upwards.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro far more orderly.Weekly 50% level is the critical level on friday:- either higher daily open and Sell down from the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level (min 85 points back down into the pink)

or price continues higher, back towards the previous 3-day breakout @ 1.4944 and higher (3-day cycle high)

No probability on direction on Friday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral

precise top on Wednesday matching spiral and 5-day 50% level has resulted in the continuation down into the Weekly 50% level and a close below.

At this stage whilst price is below, AUD's line of least resistance is down into the Weekly lows

resistance 90.40

Ideally I would like another R85 rise on Thursday during GMT hours...

But Thursdaycan continue to trend down without a swing because of the breakout of the 5-day lows.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is less room to move on the euro on the downside because of the Weekly lows.

resistance the Weekly 50% levl.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day patterns (spiral)

Yesterday's view was for currencies to move into the 5-day 50% level and continue down because of the same expectation in US equity markets.

With the Dollar Index now above the 5-week 50% level, there is an expectation that currencies should continue to rotate downward on Wednesday.

Resistance:- R85 high and spiral filter levels @ 92.12

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro breaking the Weekly 50% level but trading around 5-day support.

R85 high will be the trend guide.

if price is going down it should reject from this level, as it matches the Weekly 50% level.

If price is rising above 1.4856 and above the Weekly 50% level, then I wouldn't be trying to pick shorts on Wednesday (until next pink filter match)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

I'm basing my total view on currencies based on the price action in US equity markets.

If Tuesday follows SET-UP A then currencies will drop considerably on Tuesday and over the next few days.

That means the 3-day filters and 5-day 50% levels are the trend guides on Tuesday:- resistance.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

The same applies on the Euro:- currently supported around the 5-week 50% level, and could remain so during the day, but during US timezone if below the weekly 50% level...

price is heading down into the 3-week lows.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

looking for pullbacks into the Weekly 50% levels...

however, at this stage trading around support levels and above the 50% level doesn't provide the ideal set-up.

Random resistance 9243-64

Euro Weekly and spiral filter

Same expectation of a move down into the weekly 50% level ,but not the ideal set-up to trade shorts.

Random resistance 1.5026