4th February 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro back down into support levels and the February 50% level.

I would think price will try and swing back towards the 5-day 50% level on Friday (after 11am) and towards the Weekly level on Monday @ 1.3748.

Note;- I can't discount Friday following the range into the 5-day lows  @ 1.3539, but because of the Monthly 50% level this has less probability.

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

Friday can continue to trend up towards the monthly level @ 1.0209, as it remains above the Weekly highs...

but it looks like the 12 hour patterns are choppy

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

3rd February 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

AUD WEEKLY & 5-day

Weekly highs supporting the trend, with an expectation that the trend is moving towards the February highs, or at least higher highs by friday

if it follows my view of moving upwards, then the trend guide from 11am is as shown.

otherwise, Thursday could moving into another consolidating pattern if below .


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I'm not sure on the Euro, as it has already completed the move into the Weekly highs and stalled.

Trend guide as shown from 11am, which could see Thursday continue to trend upwards.

otherwise,  Thursday could begin to drift and consolidate towards the 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

2nd February 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro about to complete the 2nd phase of the upward trend around the Weekly and Single monthly highs.

Because there is a breakout of Tuesday's highs, the trend can continue to move up towards Wednesday's highs, but after that, it becomes a random pattern, as price begins to hit resistance levels, but doesn't mean the euro will necessarily reverse down....

other than short-term 12 hour reversal patterns.

Random support around Tuesday's highs and brown filter.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Breakout of Tuesday's highs, as the January resistance levels disappear, and now the trend is moving towards the February highs

My ideal pattern didn't play out as expected, but as pointed out yesterday, there was an expectation that Tuesday would initially push upwards, whilst above .9977

Today:- because there is a breakout of the Weekly highs. my view is that the AUD will remain above these levels and continue to move towards the monthly highs.

That means from 11am, Wednesday can continue to push upwards, using 1.0111, as the trend guide....

but if below that level, then my view is that the first 12 hours will come back and retest the breakout levels using trailing support

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

1st February 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

Bullish scenario eventually played out on Monday.

if the AUD is going to go higher, then my ideal pattern would be a retest of Weekly 50% level, or even the February 50% level and then for the trend to continue up towards the Weekly highs.

Today price is above .9977, then the trend bias is towards Tuesday's highs.

Note:- Weekly timeframe remains within the month of January, therefore there is still the possibility that this week continues to consolidate below 1.0007 until the start of the next week.

Weekly and 5-day range

Trend bias is to continue towards the Weekly and single monthly highs (red)

Trend guide on Tuesday is :- 1.3682.

My view is that the Euro will continue upwards....

However, if price is below the brown filter, there is the possibility that price comes back and retests the February 50% level @ 1.36160

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

31st Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

AUD Weekly and Daily range.

Whilst the trend is below the Weekly 50% level, the trend bias is to continue down into the Weekly lows.

There is random support around .9880, which could see a swing back towards the 50% levels @ 9918 to 9936 (Weekly 50% level).

.9880 is not a high probability set-up, therefore run tight stops, as the market trend is to push upwards.

My bullish scenario, as per weekly report, doesn't look like playing out at this stage.




Euro Weekly and 5-day range.

opens below the critical level @ 1.3613, and is pushing down.

Trend guide is based on the brown filter, which could see a swing back towards the 5-day 50% level, during the first 12 hours.

if below, it's moving down into Monday's lows (random support)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th Jan 2011, USD, AUD, EUR, Weekly

USD Index (Monthly and Weekly

USD index is bearish, as it is trading below the January 50% level and below the single monthly lows.

However, the Quarterly levels are support the index.

Expectation that the trend should continue down, however, there's a possibility that next week's Monthly lows @ 76.77 provide a swing back upwards similar to what happen in Nymex futures on Friday.

This is based on price finding support at the monthly lows and being pushed upwards using the Quarterly level (Yellow).

Note:- keep in mind that the USD index is being pushed down from the Yearly 50% level, therefore the Primary trend is to continue lower

Euro Monthly and Weekly

As per Friday's report, the next best set-up would be for price to come back down from the weekly highs and into next week's level.

Trend guide next week is 1.3613

My view is for the Euro to continue upwards whilst above that level.

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD continues to consolidate between those monthly levels.

Next Week:- price can push down into next week's lows, using the 50% level as the trend guide.

However my hunch is that the AUD can follow a text book pattern and rise back into the January 50% level @ 1.0007

Stall once again, and then come back down into the February 50% level, which then forms support....

and then continue up towards the Weekly highs, with a possible breakout of those highs.

We should continue to look for set-ups within the 12 hour patterns

28th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro hits the Weekly highs and stalls.

My ideal pattern would be for the euro to move down into next week's level and then continue higher next week.

Based on the current levels on Friday, there's no probability pattern




AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Higher timeframe levels continue to resist the AUD from rising, and with yesterday's levels the bias was to push the AUD lower.

Today:- Either the trend continues down into Friday's lows (random support) & Weekly level @ 98.30

or the first 12 hour moves upwards, with the first target being the 5-day 50% level @ 9928, and with a possible move towards the channel highs.

This being a lower Daily open and continuing to move in a consolidating pattern for the first 12 hours.

Trend guide on Friday is .9897

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th Jan 2011 Daily, AUD part 2

AUD 13:14

AUD has moved down and back into trailing support levels.

at this stage it's too early to tell whether this 4 hour period will find support...

or continue down into the following channel lows @ .9915

27th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro continues to climb towards the Weekly highs:- random resistance @ 1.37480.

Random trend guide is the white channel highs @ 1.3694

With trailing support (12 hour channel lows)

If the Euro moves down early today, then those 12 hour lows are areas of interest for the market to move towards the Weekly highs.

Those 12 hour lows are less valid after the Weekly highs have been reached.




AUD Weekly and 5-day range.

Higher timeframes continue to resist the trend from rising, and based on the 12 hour levels on Thursday, it makes it hard to think that today will continue to push upwards, even though the first 10-11 hours of the day often remains supported.

It’s only after 10pm (Sydney time) that sellers try and push the AUD lower.

Random resistance @ 1.0007

The ideal pattern would be for the AUD to move back down and retest the 5-day 50% level, and also the trailing 12 hour support channels (blue)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Tredn bias is to continue upwards, but the price action in the daily range has been choppy, without providing ideal set-ups during each 12 hour period.

Trend guide @ 1.3652.

At this stage my view is to continue towards the Weekly highs.





AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly and Monthly 50% levels continue to resist the trend from rising.

At this stage I continue to look for buying opps during my timezone, and because i think the AUD is trying to move towards higher highs in 2011.

once again channel highs are the trend guide for Wednesday from 11am onwards.

Trend guide .9972.

To validate the trend moving upwards, we need to confirm this with a 5-day breakout.

if below .9972, then it's more rotation and random patterns:- 41 to 85 pips

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT