AUD/USD Monthly Report 20/10/2014

The current price action is following a retest pattern, where it retests last year's breakout that often aligns with the Yearly 50% level. Once that completes, my view is that the AUD will resume its downward trend towards the 2014 lows.

Previous Monthly Report

AUD Primary cycles

 

As we can see the AUD has tested the 2014 50% level and failed, as part of the Primary cycle break and extend pattern from the 2013 lows towards the 2014 lows.  (minimum move .8564 towards .8310).

 

Current resistance is around the monthly 50% levels @.8930, as part of the monthly break and extend pattern from September lows to the November lows.

 

 

Long term trend will be define by the next Primary cycle in 2015, and whether those cycles dip lower, as the AUD is currently in a 2 period Primary Cycle downward trend.

AUD/USD Forex Monthly Report 7th April 2014

 

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

 

My view was that the AUD would continue lower, as part of the Dilernia Principle with the Primary cycles.

 However, it has done the opposite, and has broken out within the Monthly cycles in the last month of the Quarter, which suggests the trend will continue higher in the 2nd Quarter.

 

This suggests that the trend will continue up into the April highs, and into the 2014 Yearly 50% level @ .9449.

 

 

http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/gold-silver-7th-april-2014-monthly.html

 

However, my view is that is will follow a similar pattern as GOLD (click the above link)

 

The current price action is following a retest pattern, where it retests last year''s breakout that often aligns with the Yearly 50% level. Once that completes, my view is that the AUD will resumes its downward trend towards the 2014 lows.

 

 

 

AUD/USD 3rd March 2014 Monthly Report

1st Quarter Support @ 87.01 and expectation it is rising back towards the 50% levels...

A slow rise up into the end of March, and then a continuation down from around .9092 & down into the 2014 lows 8560, as part of the Primary break & extend pattern into the 2014 lows. (Previous Report)

AUD/Weekly Primary and Monthly cycles

Primary cycles suggests the AUD will continue down into the 2014 lows, as part of the break -n - extend pattern from the 2013 yearly lows (Dilernia Principle)

Monthly cycles in February also playing their part, as it forms resistance....

As long as it remains below the MARCH 50% level @ .8918, the trend bias is down.

if it breaks above the 5-day highs, then it's retesting the Quarterly 50% @ 9092.

AUD/USD 4th February 2014 Monthly Report

AUD/USD Primary & Monthly cycles

1st Quarter Support @ 87.01 and expectation it is rising back towards the 50% levels...

That means a swing as high as .9335 by the end of MARCH or sooner, and then a continuation up towards .9440 sometime in the 2nd Quarter.

Or....

A slow rise up into the end of March, and then a continuation down from around .9092 & down into the 2014 lows .8560, as part of the Primary break & extend pattern

AUD/USD Forex 24th December 2013

AUD/USD Primary & Monthly Cycles

December lows currently supporting the trend,

whilst the overall bias is to move down into the 2014 lows/BUY ZONE, as part of the Primary Break-n-Extend pattern.

Short-term resistance during the rest of December #A @ 89.90

Until those lows are reached, then 1st Quarter resistance around 91.40/70

AUD/USD 12th December 2013 Monthly Reports

AUD Primary cycles and breakout patterns (Dilernia Principles) suggests the AUD will continue down towards the 2014 yearly lows. We've just recently seen Secondary support come into play around .8870 and swing back up into the 50% level @ .9730 (#3)....

 My view is that the Primary cycles will now come into play and push the AUD downward, as part of a Primary break & extend pattern (Revious Report)


AUD Primary cycles

Primary Cycles continue to play out as expected, with an overall trend bias to continue down into the 2014 lows, and the next long-term BUY zone.

Any short-term buying, and the expectation is that the 2014 yearly 50% level will form resistance, until those lows are reached.

AUS/USD 2nd November 2013 Monthly Report

AUD Primary cycles

AUD Primary cycles and  breakout patterns (Dilernia Principles) suggests the AUD will continue down towards the 2014 yearly lows.

We've just recently seen Secondary support come into play around .8870 and swing back up into the 50% level @ .9730 (#3)....

My view is that the Primary cycles will now come into play and push the AUD downward, as part of a Primary break & extend pattern.

AUD/USD 1st October 2013 Monthly Report

We can now see the completion of the break and extend pattern in the Quarterly cycles, from the 2nd Quarter down into the 3rd quarterly lows @ .8874.....  

my view is that the AUD should try and move back up towards the 2013 yearly lows, which aligns with the 2014 50% level:- around .9457. This will probably take 3-6 months for it to happen. If that's the case, then this level is seen as a major resistance zone in 2014. (AUD Report 3rd August 2013)

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

We can see this exactly happen.... the completion of the break and extend pattern (#1 & #2), and now the rotation up into the Yearly lows and resistance, even though it happened in less than 2-months.

My view is that the AUD will drop down and follow the Primary cycle break & Extend pattern into the 2014 Yearly lows.

How quickly that happens will depend on when the FED decides to ease back on stimulus.

if it continues into the end of this year, then the 2014 Yearly 50% level is the resistance level for a move down.

If it happens later in this Quarter, then the 2014 Yearly lows will drop lower, and the AUD will continue down.

AUD/USD 1st September 2013 Monthly Reports

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary cycles suggests the AUD will continue down into the Yearly lows in 2014, as part of the Dilernia Principle of break & extend Patterns.

Currently that same pattern in the Quarterly cycles has played out, and this is where Support has formed during this Quarter around .8870 from 1.0137

We can also see the monthly cycles resistance zones, and this may continue during the last month in September @ .9179 and see the trend push lower in the 4th Quarter towards those Yearly lows in 2014.

However,  never discount a larger rotation upwards in the 4th Quarter, as it moves back into the 2013 Yearly lows, that aligns with the Yearly 50% level in 2014.

AUD/USD 3rd AUGUST 2013 Monthly Report

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary breakout suggests the trend will continue down into the 2014 Yearly lows, as part of the break and extend pattern.

We can now see the completion of the break and extend pattern in the Quarterly highs, from the 2nd Quarter down into the 3rd quarterly lows @ .8874.

There could be some weakness down into the August lows @  (Support right chart), but my view is that the AUD should try and move back up towards the 2013 yearly lows, which aligns with the 2014 50% level:- around .9457. This will probably take 3-6 months for it to happen.

If that's the case, then this level is seen as a major resistance zone in 2014.

However, how will the market react if the Reserve continues to cut rates, putting more pressure on the AUD to drop further.

In conclusion:- Technically, the AUD should swing upwards.

Fundamentally, cutting rates favours the Primary 'bear trend'