FOREX EUR/USD 9th July 2008

Euro daily and 3-day pattern

Euro still trading around the higher timeframe 50% levels, and still hasn't made a decision on which way price will go in July.

The Weekly set-up had an UP bias after bouncing off Monday's lows, but Tuesday's view was to push back down.

The redeeming pattern was that Tuesday didn't push down much further, therefore the UP bias in the euro is still in play.




Euro 3-day pattern


Wednesday is going to be defined by the intra-day filter (right chart), if above the expectation is price is rotating back towards the 5-day 50% level.

The 3-day filter (left chart), has caught up with price, which often suggests that a breakout of the 5-day 50% level and continuation upwards is a probability pattern, which is part of the Weekly set-up.

However more often than not, price will push down a minimum 41 pips from that same level.

Therefore expectation that the 5-day 50% level can form resistance and push down during the Euro hours, and if price is going to continue higher, as part of the Weekly set-up, then more often than not it will break higher in the US day session.

Note:- Weekly set-up will fail if prices rotate down 41 pips from the 5-day 50% level and continue back down into Wednesday's lows, then I would have to wait until Friday closes to set-up the next probability pattern.

  • All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT


  • Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT





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