AUD/USD 1st September 2013 Monthly Reports

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary cycles suggests the AUD will continue down into the Yearly lows in 2014, as part of the Dilernia Principle of break & extend Patterns.

Currently that same pattern in the Quarterly cycles has played out, and this is where Support has formed during this Quarter around .8870 from 1.0137

We can also see the monthly cycles resistance zones, and this may continue during the last month in September @ .9179 and see the trend push lower in the 4th Quarter towards those Yearly lows in 2014.

However,  never discount a larger rotation upwards in the 4th Quarter, as it moves back into the 2013 Yearly lows, that aligns with the Yearly 50% level in 2014.

AUD/USD 3rd AUGUST 2013 Monthly Report

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary breakout suggests the trend will continue down into the 2014 Yearly lows, as part of the break and extend pattern.

We can now see the completion of the break and extend pattern in the Quarterly highs, from the 2nd Quarter down into the 3rd quarterly lows @ .8874.

There could be some weakness down into the August lows @  (Support right chart), but my view is that the AUD should try and move back up towards the 2013 yearly lows, which aligns with the 2014 50% level:- around .9457. This will probably take 3-6 months for it to happen.

If that's the case, then this level is seen as a major resistance zone in 2014.

However, how will the market react if the Reserve continues to cut rates, putting more pressure on the AUD to drop further.

In conclusion:- Technically, the AUD should swing upwards.

Fundamentally, cutting rates favours the Primary 'bear trend'