AUD/USD Monthly Report 20/10/2014

The current price action is following a retest pattern, where it retests last year's breakout that often aligns with the Yearly 50% level. Once that completes, my view is that the AUD will resume its downward trend towards the 2014 lows.

Previous Monthly Report

AUD Primary cycles

 

As we can see the AUD has tested the 2014 50% level and failed, as part of the Primary cycle break and extend pattern from the 2013 lows towards the 2014 lows.  (minimum move .8564 towards .8310).

 

Current resistance is around the monthly 50% levels @.8930, as part of the monthly break and extend pattern from September lows to the November lows.

 

 

Long term trend will be define by the next Primary cycle in 2015, and whether those cycles dip lower, as the AUD is currently in a 2 period Primary Cycle downward trend.