1st February 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

Bullish scenario eventually played out on Monday.

if the AUD is going to go higher, then my ideal pattern would be a retest of Weekly 50% level, or even the February 50% level and then for the trend to continue up towards the Weekly highs.

Today price is above .9977, then the trend bias is towards Tuesday's highs.

Note:- Weekly timeframe remains within the month of January, therefore there is still the possibility that this week continues to consolidate below 1.0007 until the start of the next week.

Weekly and 5-day range

Trend bias is to continue towards the Weekly and single monthly highs (red)

Trend guide on Tuesday is :- 1.3682.

My view is that the Euro will continue upwards....

However, if price is below the brown filter, there is the possibility that price comes back and retests the February 50% level @ 1.36160

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

31st Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

AUD Weekly and Daily range.

Whilst the trend is below the Weekly 50% level, the trend bias is to continue down into the Weekly lows.

There is random support around .9880, which could see a swing back towards the 50% levels @ 9918 to 9936 (Weekly 50% level).

.9880 is not a high probability set-up, therefore run tight stops, as the market trend is to push upwards.

My bullish scenario, as per weekly report, doesn't look like playing out at this stage.




Euro Weekly and 5-day range.

opens below the critical level @ 1.3613, and is pushing down.

Trend guide is based on the brown filter, which could see a swing back towards the 5-day 50% level, during the first 12 hours.

if below, it's moving down into Monday's lows (random support)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th Jan 2011, USD, AUD, EUR, Weekly

USD Index (Monthly and Weekly

USD index is bearish, as it is trading below the January 50% level and below the single monthly lows.

However, the Quarterly levels are support the index.

Expectation that the trend should continue down, however, there's a possibility that next week's Monthly lows @ 76.77 provide a swing back upwards similar to what happen in Nymex futures on Friday.

This is based on price finding support at the monthly lows and being pushed upwards using the Quarterly level (Yellow).

Note:- keep in mind that the USD index is being pushed down from the Yearly 50% level, therefore the Primary trend is to continue lower

Euro Monthly and Weekly

As per Friday's report, the next best set-up would be for price to come back down from the weekly highs and into next week's level.

Trend guide next week is 1.3613

My view is for the Euro to continue upwards whilst above that level.

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD continues to consolidate between those monthly levels.

Next Week:- price can push down into next week's lows, using the 50% level as the trend guide.

However my hunch is that the AUD can follow a text book pattern and rise back into the January 50% level @ 1.0007

Stall once again, and then come back down into the February 50% level, which then forms support....

and then continue up towards the Weekly highs, with a possible breakout of those highs.

We should continue to look for set-ups within the 12 hour patterns

28th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro hits the Weekly highs and stalls.

My ideal pattern would be for the euro to move down into next week's level and then continue higher next week.

Based on the current levels on Friday, there's no probability pattern




AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Higher timeframe levels continue to resist the AUD from rising, and with yesterday's levels the bias was to push the AUD lower.

Today:- Either the trend continues down into Friday's lows (random support) & Weekly level @ 98.30

or the first 12 hour moves upwards, with the first target being the 5-day 50% level @ 9928, and with a possible move towards the channel highs.

This being a lower Daily open and continuing to move in a consolidating pattern for the first 12 hours.

Trend guide on Friday is .9897

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th Jan 2011 Daily, AUD part 2

AUD 13:14

AUD has moved down and back into trailing support levels.

at this stage it's too early to tell whether this 4 hour period will find support...

or continue down into the following channel lows @ .9915

27th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro continues to climb towards the Weekly highs:- random resistance @ 1.37480.

Random trend guide is the white channel highs @ 1.3694

With trailing support (12 hour channel lows)

If the Euro moves down early today, then those 12 hour lows are areas of interest for the market to move towards the Weekly highs.

Those 12 hour lows are less valid after the Weekly highs have been reached.




AUD Weekly and 5-day range.

Higher timeframes continue to resist the trend from rising, and based on the 12 hour levels on Thursday, it makes it hard to think that today will continue to push upwards, even though the first 10-11 hours of the day often remains supported.

It’s only after 10pm (Sydney time) that sellers try and push the AUD lower.

Random resistance @ 1.0007

The ideal pattern would be for the AUD to move back down and retest the 5-day 50% level, and also the trailing 12 hour support channels (blue)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Tredn bias is to continue upwards, but the price action in the daily range has been choppy, without providing ideal set-ups during each 12 hour period.

Trend guide @ 1.3652.

At this stage my view is to continue towards the Weekly highs.





AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly and Monthly 50% levels continue to resist the trend from rising.

At this stage I continue to look for buying opps during my timezone, and because i think the AUD is trying to move towards higher highs in 2011.

once again channel highs are the trend guide for Wednesday from 11am onwards.

Trend guide .9972.

To validate the trend moving upwards, we need to confirm this with a 5-day breakout.

if below .9972, then it's more rotation and random patterns:- 41 to 85 pips

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th Jan 2011 Daily, AUD part 2

AUD Weekly and daily range

15:30

SPI remains supported in the daily range @ 9938, but the Weekly and monthly levels are trying to push price back down.

if AUD is going to finally push upwards, it needs to get some buying support in the next 4 hours and beging trading above the 50% levels @ 7pm.

only concern at the moment would be from 11pm onwards, and then we would have to think that this week is being pushed back down into the lower Weekly levels.

25th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

euro supported at the January 50% level, and it has continued to push up towards the Weekly highs.

Tuesday's trend guide and support is based on the white channels & brown filter.



AUD Weekly and daily range

Coming into the last week of the month, and it is going to decide which way the trend goes (break out of the monthly consolidation bettern the two levels

Weekly 50% level and the January 50% level continues to resist the trend.

But if is going to continue higher, then the set-up is based on the 5-day 50% level and the white channel lows from 11am onwards.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

As per Weekly report, expectation that the euro will continue towards this week's highs, and most likely remain above last week's breakout @ 1.3531.

Because there's a breakout of Friday's highs the trend should continue up towards Monday's highs.

Trend guide the brown filter

Support as shown @ 1.3551.


If the market continues to move up towards the Weekly highs over the next 2-days...

my view is that the euro will then try and come back and retest the breakout, and then continue higher once again later in the week.



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Once again there's no probability pattern to start the week....

As price can continue to push back towards the 5-day 50% level...

or dip back down into the Weekly level 98.30. (trend guide .9914)

Currently AUD remains stuck between 2 monthly levels, therefore it remains choppy

22nd Jan 2011, USD, AUD, EUR, Weekly

USD index

USD index heading down towards the 2011 lows... with a random support pattern around the 1st Quarter lows @ 77.65.

At this stage I would treat the trend based on the breakout of the single monthly lows and also the January 50% level, which could see an extension lower in February.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Breakout of the 3-week highs and also the January 50% level ,should see the euro continue back towards the 3-month highs.

First target the next week's highs.

Trailing support levels @ 1.3505.

We'll look for patterns in the 5-day range to help validate 12 hour cycles based on the current price action in the larger timeframe cycles

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD continues to consolidate between the monthly levels.

My expectation remains that price will move higher in 2011, but we need to see price trading above 1.0007.

once again we should look for 12 hour patterns to help validate support and the potential breakout pattern

Next Week's support @ 98.30

21st Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and daily range

Euro consolidating below the January 50% level, but above last week's highs.

Based on the current price action, it looks like the Euro is range bound between the levels (intra-day)

no high probability set-up:- random support as shown.

AUD Weekly and daily range

The trend so far is being dictated by the brown filter during each 12 hour period.

current price action suggests more weakness, towards Friday's lows.

However, above the brown filter would see a swing back towards the 5-day 50% level (random resistance)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The Euro has followed the double Weekly high pattern @ 1.3531 using Wednesday’s level as a trend guide and support (1.3370)

This completes the pattern, and the trend remains below the January 50% level.

The trend guide continues to be 1.3438 (weekly level), which may see the Euro remain range bound during the first 12 hours today, as there aren’t set-ups within the 5-day range to help validate further weakness.

No probability pattern on Thursday.




AUD Weekly and 5-day range


Yesterday saw the first 12 hours breakout of the 5-day high and Weekly 50% level @ 1.0033.

2nd support @ 1.0040 should have seen the AUD continue upwards, as part of a move towards the Weekly highs.

Instead it failed, and has seen the AUD move back below the key levels in the market @ 1.0007

Based on the current price action in the market there’s, no probability pattern for Thursday other than trading the levels:- short-term ranges

Random support @ 99.33

Trend guide 50% level @ 9971.

AUD looks range bound once again during the month of January

Footnote:- "
****** China GDP and other China news out at 1.00pm , big news , which will effect the AUD in the short-term

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th Jan 2011 Daily, AUD part 2

AUD has stalled at the highs and Weekly 50% level during the first 12 hours @ 1.0033

Whether it continues to trend upwards in the next 12 hours is anyone's guess,
however the dynamics are different compared to last Thursday.

If it clears those highs, trend bias is to move towards the Weekly highs by Friday

Primary target on AUD is 1.06

19th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro looks to be following a 2nd Weekly high pattern this week, however my expectation was that Tuesday was part of a 2nd day reversal after Friday's highs.

Currently the Weekly level @ 1.3480 is stalling the trend from moving back towards the January 50% level

Trend guide during the first 12 hours (after 11am) is simply the intra-day channels @ 1.3377

AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD continues to remain choppy between the monthly levels, as per Weekly report

This week's level @ 9882 is forming a higher lower, which can eventually break back above the January 50% level @ 1.0007.

If it's going to break above, then the trend guide is going to be 9978. during the first 12 hours (11am) , same pattern as last Thursday

There isn't any probability it will breakout during the 2nd 12 hours, and sometimes it takes until the last day of the week for that to happen.

Breakout is determined by Wednesday trading above the 5-day highs @ 1.0033

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

At the moment I'm treating the euro as part of a 2-day reversal pattern back towards the Weekly 50% level.

Random support:- 5-day 50% level and blue channels during the frst 12 hours.



AUD Weekly and daily range

As per Weekly report, AUD is trading below 2 monthly levels, without giving any clues which direction the market will take.

no probability pattern during the first 12 hours for Tuesday

5-day 50% level trend guide @ .9922

17th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

As per Weekly report...I'm looking for this week to begin with a 2-day reversal pattern because of Friday's high.

However, that might not happen until the 2nd 12 hour, using 1.3400 as the trned guide



AUD Weekly and Daily range

After last week's price action, I'm not sure whether AUD remains trading between the monthly levels, as shown in the Weekly report below...

or the trend continue down towards the Weekly levels.

No probability pattern on Monday (first 12 hours)

Random support:- .9882

15th Jan 2011, USD, AUD, EUR, Weekly

USD Index

USD Index is back below the Yearly 50% level after being rejected by the 3-Quarterly 50% level and monthly high.

I would normally treat this as a trending pattern, but for that to happen it needs to break support @ 78.76 and continue down towards the 3-month lows.

otherwise the USD index can move into a consolidation pattern between the recent highs and support.

Euro monthly and Weekly

How that's going to effect the euro is what we need to keep an eye on.

The Euro is either going to continue to trend upwards....

or it's going to follow a double weekly high pattern, but then reverse back down towards the #-Quarterly 50% level @ 1.3180.

Short-term pattern:- we have a Friday high pattern, which will often move into a 2-day reversal pattern

therefore the trend guide is 1.3438

Weekly 50% level support and Tuesday's 5-day lows

if above 1.3438 then it's following the move towards the 2nd Weekly highs.

AUD monthly and Weekly

After finding support this week I was looking for price is move above November's 50% level, but as pointed out yesterday , Thursday's 2nd 12 hour highs stalled AUD.

At this stage it's too early to tell whether the AUD continues down into next week's lows....

or it remains above monthly support, and then continues upwards during the last week of the current month.

At this stage I still favour higher highs in 2011.

14th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro was a lot stronger than expected based on Thursday's price action, as it didn't provide an ideal set-up to trade the breakout, or get onto the breakout using 2nd support.

currently trading around the Weekly highs.

There is a breakout of Thursday's highs, which should continue up into Friday's highs.

However, the Weekly highs could stop that from happening today.

no probability pattern for Friday.





AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Swing back towards 1.0007 failed to continue higher.

What I needed to see was the first 12 hour pattern breakout, as the 2nd 12 hour pattern had a change in cycle forming resistance around the daily highs and also the January 50% level.

no probability for Friday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

2nd support has sent the euro higher, and it now looks to be moving back into the Weekly 50% level, which matches Thursday's highs.

At this stage I would treat those highs and the Weekly 50% level as resistance during the first 12 hours.




AUD Weekly and 5-day range

Support as shown using the channel highs @ 99.37/51.

wirh the expectation that price is mvoing back into the January 50% level @ 1.0007.

however, I have no idea whether the AUD will break 1.0007 as it matches the Thursday high pattern (Resistance).

if it does it will be on the back of Employment numbers out at 11:30am today.

12th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Lower weekly open and rising up from the January lows.

Tuesday was choppy, and we find ourselves with Wednesday starting the day trading below the Weekly level @ 1.3013, but more importantly the 5-day 50% level and blue channel highs.

Therefore there are a number of resistance levels on Wednesday around 1.3010-13.

Wednesday is a random pattern, that could see the Euro continue the overall trend back down towards the Weekly lows, as part of the break and extend pattern from last week’s lows.

Or it’s going to break above those levels and continue back towards the previous breakout @ 1.3090.




AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD following the Weekly dynamics whilst below the January 50% level.

Break and extend pattern on Tuesday can continue down towards Wednesday’s lows.

Trend guide 9847/54 during the first 12 hours.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and Daily range

January lows currently supporting the Euro, along with the 2nd 12 hour support pattern, as mentioned in yesterday's report.

If the Euro is going to continue to swing back towards the 5-day 50% level @ 1.3049-1.3013 (Weekly level)...

Then the best trend guide is going to be the white channel high @ 1.2915 after 11am.

If below it becomes a random pattern using the brown filter.



AUD Weekly and Daily range

2nd 12 hour support wasn't as robust using the channel lows, but the Weekly level @ 9901 and then the brown filter provided Monday with an UP day.

Based on the current price action, it's hard to see whether Tuesday will continue to trend upwards and break back above the January 50% level @ 1.0007

Trend guide brown filter.

first 12 hour support as shown with the channel lows

Weekly 50% level resistance @ 1.0050 (if it gets that high)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th Jan 2011 Daily, EUR & AUD

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

Euro has reached the January lows, and this is our trend guide on whether there's a 2-day reversal back towards the Weekly level @ 1.3013

trend guide is based on the brown filter....

if Monday is going to continue upwards then we need to look at a possible next 12 hour support pattern using the white channels...

or 2nd support using the blue channels from 11pm onwards.

below January's lows continues the bear trend



AUD Weekly and 5-day range

brown filter @ 9958 on monday from 11am will determine whether AUD continues up towards the 5-day 50% level and January's 50% level @ 1.0005/7

or price dips down into the Weekly level @ .9901.

once again we look for 2nd support from 11pm onwards using the blue channel lows

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th Jan 2011, USD, AUD, EUR, Weekly

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

The USD index started the Primary cycle below the Yearly 50% level, whilst currencies started above theirs.

But over the past 5-days that has quickly changed.

The USD index is now above the Yearly 50% level @ 80.90....

This trend could continue to trend upwards and breakout of the January highs, and then continue for the next 3 months until the start of the next Quarter

or it could be a fake move... with next week's highs and the January 50% level sending the USD index back down.

At this stage I don't know what will happen until it happens, but I don't have a 'thrust pattern' set-up that suggests that the trend will breakout.

Thrust patterns normally occur when the 3-Quarter 50% level or 3-month 50% level aligns with the single monthly pivot...

at this stage price is simply moving back into the 3-Quarterly, and not away from that level.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Breakout of the Weekly lows can continue to extend down towards next week's lows...

but whilst the market remains below the 3-Quarterly 50% level @ 1.3180 the trend can continue down towards the first quarterly lows.

Random support @ 1.2880

AUD monthly and Weekly

My view is that the AUD will continue higher during 2011, but in the short-term it is moving down and likely to follow the Weekly low pattern towards .9827

Trend guide for the rest of this Quarter is the January 50% level @ 1.0007.

And we focus on the patterns within the 5-day range and 12 hour levels.

7th January 2011 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Monthly and Weekly

The Euro is breaking critical support levels this week, with Yesterday’s breakout of the 3-week lows @ 1.3090

The Euro is now trading below the Yearly 50% level @ 1.3279, and also the 3-quarterly 50% level @ 1.3180

There is random support around January’s lows @ 1.2888, but with the breakout of the 3-week lows it is likely to continue towards the first quarter lows @ 1.2648




Euro 5-day pattern.

Another breakout of the 5-day range on Thursday, and it’s likely to continue down into Friday’s lows

Brown filter trend guide.

Resistance:- 1.3090 to 1.3111



AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD trading below the January 50% level and heading down into the Weekly lows @ 9893

Possible price action is to follow a double Weekly low pattern next week (next week’s lows).

At this stage it’s too early to tell whether the AUD will continue down towards the 1st Quarter lows @ .9564




AUD 5-day pattern.

AUD can continue to follow the 5-day range down into Friday’s lows (random support) with matching Weekly lows..

Brown filter trend guide.

If above .9962 then there is a possible 2nd 12 hour (11pm) move back towards the 5-day 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT