1st July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD reversed down from the 5-day highs and back into the 5-day 50% level.

AUD will start the next Month and Quarter trading above all 50% levels, including the 5-day 50% level.

IF the AUD is going to continue higher this week, then it needs to remain supported above the 5-day 50% level and rise up from today's lower daily open....

Confirmed with another 3-day filter breakout (yellow).

If today fails to rise up, then the expectation is AUD is rotating towards the 3rd Quarter 50% level.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on a trending Weekly range, the 3-day filter (red) should have supported Euro and closed higher not break lower on Tuesday

Support was valid for a 4 hour period but it failed resulting in a move back down into the Weekly and Monthly BP levels (red)

Today is all about the lower daily open and whether the Euro rises up from the 5-day 50% level or continues down.

The 5-day 50% level along the Monthly and Weekly 50% level should be used as a strong trend guide today.

along with the levels in the 5-day pattern.

I haven't factored in a down day because I'm looking for a higher Weekly move....

But don't trade longs below the 5-day 50% level @ 1.4026

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report I'm bullish on currencies in this last week of the Quarter.

With Monday's trading and now confirmed with the break of the 3-day cycle, my expectation is a continuation upwards.

Personally I wouldn't go looking to short currencies (position/ medium term) until this weeks completes.

If long stay long, until it either reaches those June highs, or run stops accordingly


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro started Monday with a move down into the 5-day 50% level, but the confirming pattern was the 4 hour HOOK back above the Weekly 50% level.

As per Weekly report:- Above the Weekly 50% level and my expectation is a trending week upwards.

simply trade on the side of the 3-day filter.

Note:- nothing is guaranteed when analysing the markets therefore run stops accordingly

29th June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Higher Weekly open moving back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 8012...

At this stage the Weekly 50% level is a trend guide, but if it's going to follow any continuation upwards this week, it will need to be trading above the Yellow 3-day filter on Monday

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Higher Weekly open and pushing down from the Yellow filter @ 1.4070 and back into the 3rd Filter @ 1.4017

In the Weekly report I mentioned that I'm bullish on the Euro, but price needs to find support above 1.4017 and get back above the Weekly 50% level...

Otherwise, it's following a higher Weekly open 'sell' down pattern, and looking at the Monday levels, I'm starting to feel that it might be a 'sell' down pattern towards the July 50% levels

27th June 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly

This Week saw the Weekly HOOK pattern continue higher into a higher Friday close, and next week's trend will be defined by the Weekly 50% level.

Higher timeframes:-

Price is trading above the Yearly 50% level and above the MAY high breakout...

The expectation is that price is moving towards the June/July highs.

However, we have a higher Weekly open which could send the market down towards the 3rd Quarter 50% level before any potential up move occurs, using a lower Weekly open and monthly 50% level support

What do I think will happen next week?

My Gut feeling tells me that we have just had a 3-week sideways move, and based on friday's close and trading above the higher timeframe levels, there could be a 5-day rally towards the June highs next week.

I think trying to trade any shorts next week whilst above the Weekly 50% level could be open to rise, as a higher Friday close could see AUD @ 84.80.

At this stage the 5-day 50% level and the Weekly 50% level should be used as support, and deal with it if it fails to continue higher with tight stops below those levels....

Daily report out on Monday around 9am

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro trading below the Yearly 50% level, but above the MAY high breakout.

Once again we have an each way bet on the direction next week:- higher Weekly open could see prices back down towards the 3rd Quarter 50% level...

However, the Euro could follow a last week rally towards 1.4528, if trading above the Weekly 50% level.

Euro 5-day pattern

I expected higher prices on Friday, but not much more that the 3-day filter...

However, on Monday the 3-day filter drops down, which is what I've been looking for to happen before any UP trend continues.

And that happens on Monday

Next Week is simply going to be defined by Monday's trading...

My gut feeling says a last Week rally upwards....

But it won't happen if price is below the 3-day filter and the Weekly 50% level on Monday

26th June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD continues to be supported around the Weekly 50% level, and I would think price will conrinue up into the 5-day highs and 3-day filter...

3-day filter random resistance....

But we need to keep in mind that a Weekly HOOK pattern can continue into a higher high on Friday

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on price action and a 2-day stall pattern after Tuesday's Rally...

I would expect the Euro to continue upwards on Friday towards the 5-day highs.

I mentioned that my view was Euro to move towards 1.4302 by Friday, but because the Red 3-day filter is still above price and it's not rising up from the 3-day filter...

I would view Friday's highs as random resistance.

Limit any longs below the 5-day 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD has followed the Weekly HOOK pattern rising up from the Weekly 50% levels and 5-day 50% levels....

However, after completing the 85 pip move and hitting the 3-day cycle high (white) price has reversed back down.


A Weekly HOOK pattern should continue to be supported above the 5-day 50% level on Thursday, but the failure to close above the 3-day cycle could see a choppy trading day either side of the 5-day 50% level.

Because of this is there is no probability pattern on Thursday.....

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

"We have a 5-day breakout on Tuesday, therefore there is the expectation that price should continue towards Wednesday's highs.

However, Tuesday is breaking the 3-day cycle (White)

When that happens often price stalls for 2-days and then continues higher on the 3rd day.

Basically I would like to see the Euro move back down towards the 3-day filter (Red) over the next 1-2 days to trade longs towards a higher Friday close" ......Yesterday's Report

Euro on Wednesday played out precisely, except it didn't precisely hit the Wednesday's highs, failing my entry by 2 pips.

In any normal 5-day breakout as was the case on Tuesday, we would normally think that price will remain above the break and the 5-day 50% level would support price.

That normally happens if price is rising up from the 3-day filter on Tuesday (red), but that wasn't the case.

Instead the view is for price to come back down and retest the filter, which it did, along with Weekly 50% level support.

Now does the Euro continue towards Friday's highs?

Based on the 5-day pattern and Thursday trading below 5-day 50% level, it makes it hard to be confident that the Euro will move higher:- Weekly 50% level support.

We might get another 1-day consolidation until the 3-day filter drops from Thursday's highs into lower prices on Friday.

No probability pattern on Thursday because of where price is trading to the 5-day 50% level, at this stage

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday I was looking for a move back into the 5-day 50% level, which matched the Weekly 50% level and short trade down...

This lasted the usual 41 pip reversal, but then it reversed back towards the 3-day filter.

We have a couple of patterns at play on Wednesday and both are as valid as each other....

1. Price is still above Monthly balance point, and we have a potential Weekly HOOK pattern based on Tuesday's trading.

Weekly HOOK:- moves down on Monday but reverses up and closes above the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level.

If price is going to HOOK and continue higher, then it needs to be trading above the 3-day filter:- (4 hour close) towards .8120

2. higher Daily close, sell down from the Weekly 50% level and pushed down by the 5-day 50% level.

In conclusion:- it's a each way bet

Trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level.....

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I certainly wasn't expecting the Rally on the Euro, even though there was support around the monthly balance point.

I personally like to trade longs using the 3-day filter as support:- RED

In the Euro we have two plays on Wednesday.

At this stage the view is to move towards the 3-week highs @ 1.4302 by Friday

We have a 5-day breakout on Tuesday, therefore there is the expectation that price should continue towards Wednesday's highs.

However, Tuesday is breaking the 3-day cycle (White)

When that happens often price stalls for 2-days and then continues higher on the 3rd day.

Basically I would like to see the Euro move back down towards the 3-day filter (Red) over the next 1-2 days to trade longs towards a higher friday close.

Wednesday:- trade on the side of the Yellow Filter.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Monday didn't rise higher enough to hit the 3-day filter, and the 4-hour close below the 5-day 50% level sent the market down.

Tuesday:- Currently supported around the 5-day low on Monday but below the Weekly 50% level.

If the AUD is going to continue down then I would like to see a rotation back upwards into the Weekly 50% level matching the 5-day 50% level and short trade down towards Tuesday's lows.


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

3-day filter sell down, but currently range bound between a number of higher timeframe 50% levels.

Once again, trade on the side of the 3-day filter

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Monthly & Weekly

At this stage AUD looks like it's moving towards the 3rd Quarter 50% level, but trading in a narrow range around the Weekly 50% level.

AUD 5-day pattern

I would treat AUD like last week:- use the levels along with the 3-day filter (yellow) and look for 4 hour pattersn:- 41 pips -85 pips

EURO Monthly and Weekly

EUR is currently trading above the MAY high breakout but below the Yearly 50% level....

I have the same view that the EURO is consolidating until the 3rd Quarter.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trade on the side of the 3-day filter

19th June 2009 AUD & EURO Daily

"We could end up in a tight sideways pattern over the next couple of weeks until the 3rd Quarter begins.

If the Euro or AUD remain in a tight sideways pattern supported above the Weekly 50% level, then over the next couple of weeks there will be a number of daily patterns that rotate up and down within the 5-day range.

And the 3-day filters should be used accordingly:- 4 hour patterns and 41-85 pip ranges"

Previous Weekly Report

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per previous Weekly report that's how this week has played out.

Friday:- no probability pattern, use the levels in the 5-day range


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies in the Euro:- 5-day 50% level matches the Weekly 50% level and lower daily open, but trading below the 3-day filters.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th June 2009 AUD & EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD still remains supported around the 5-Week 50% level, but it being influenced by the 3-day filter this week.

And the same applies on Thursday...

Trade on the side of the 3-day filter: yellow

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern


Above the Yellow and above the 5-day 50% level will probably see a move back towards the 5-day highs:- 85 pips up.

Below the red 3-day filter along with a higher daily open and sell down from the 5-day 50% level, will see a move down into Thursday's lows (5-day)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17 June AUD & EUR Daily

AUD Weekly 5-day pattern


AUD still trading around the 5-Week 50% level.

Once again no probability on direction.

Use the levels in the 5-day range for 4 hour & 41 pip ranges


EURO Weekly and 5-day pattern

I wasn't expecting an UP day on Tuesday because of the 5-day breakout on Monday.

I was expecting the same pattern that occurred in the DOW and S&P:- break and extend down into Tuesday's lows.

Wednesday:- no probability pattern

trade on the side of the yellow filter, if it's below then it is part Monday's breakout and move below the weekly 50% level down into Wednesday's lows

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th June 2009 AUD & EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly 50% level support, but whether it holds on Tuesday is another matter.

There is no probability pattern, but I would think that Weekly 50% level should push price back towards the 5-day 50% level.

Tuesday's levels:- blue, green & Yellow should be used as random 4 hour resistance levels:- 41 pips

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Monday's 5-day lows failed along with the Weekly 50% level.

This favours more weakness on Tuesday using Monday's 5-day lows as resistance along with the Yellow filter.

There is now the view that price is coming back towards the single Monthly pivot lows: shaded.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

AUD & EUR Daily 15th June 2009

AUD & EUR 5-day pattern.

As per Weekly report, this week is about the trend being defined by the 5-week 50% level as was the case last week.

Levels shown in the previous report(brown dotted)

Monday: trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level.

If shorting then look for 4 hour patterns of 41-85 pip ranges.

A bounce off the 5-week 50% level and above the 5-day 50% level can hold

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Forex AUD, EUR, 13 June 2009

AUD Monthly and Weekly.

MAY high breakout, expectation price is moving up into the JUNE highs.

This week set-up was based on an early push down into the Weekly 50% level, and then higher prices, as they go look for JUNE highs.

Next week is about how prices react to the JUNE highs, and whether currencies begin to rotate back down towards the July 50% levels, and go look to retest the MAY high breakout over the next 2 –months.

Weekly 50% level is the Support and Trend guide

EURO Monthly and Weekly.

As pattern as AUD, and same expectation as the AUD over the next couple of weeks.

Weekly 50% level the trend guide, with the expectation price is moving towards June highs

But we need to keep in mind that the Euro is struggling to remain above the Yearly 50% level at this stage, and we could end up in a tight sideways pattern over the next couple of weeks until the 3rd Quarter begins.



Euro 5-day pattern

If the Euro or AUD remain in a tight sideways pattern supported above the Weekly 50% level, then over the next couple of weeks there will be a number of daily patterns that rotate up and down within the 5-day range.

And the 3-day filters should be used accordingly:- 4 hour patterns and 41-85 pip ranges.

12th June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

On Thursday there wasn't any probability patterns other than using the levels in the 5-day range and trade 4 hour patterns and 41 pips.

Friday:- there is a 5-day breakout on Thursday which will continue higher into Friday's highs.

There are two patterns at play here:-

1. moves up into Friday's highs and reverses back down into the 5-day 50% level.

2- continues to trend higher into June highs:- higher Friday close

A higher Friday close can play out after this week's bounce off the Weekly 50% level.

Trade on the side of the Yellow filter.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday I was bearish in early trading around the 5-day 50% level and Yellow filter, but I was only bearish for 4 hour patterns because price is rising up from the Weekly 50% level

Friday:-

If it's above the red filter it's going up into Friday highs to finally complete the move into the 3-day cycle high @ 1.4268.

Simply don't short trade above 1.4268, as it's a Friday high breakout looking for a move into the June highs.

There is no guarantee it will go up on Friday, as this week seems to have daily bars that are closing in the opposite direction :- higher into lower.

Today being higher open can move down, but it's hard to be trading any shorts at this stage.

Ramdon resistance 1.4268

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern


AUD completes the move into the 5-day high .8122 and stalls.

Based on current price action there is no probability pattern for Thursday.

I would use the levels in the 5-day range and look for 4 hour & 41 pip ranges.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I was expecting more upside on Wednesday, especially once the Euro began rising upwards from Wednesday's 5-day 50% level and completing a double 41 pip move.

However ,I also mentioned in yesterday's report that price often comes down into the 3-day filter the next day.

The most robust patterns always move down early in the first 4-8 hour period and then rise higher from support, instead price moved up in the first 8 hour period and then moved back down into support.

Thursday:- Based on the current 3-day sell cycle and price trading below the 5-day 50% level I would look to short the 5-day 50% level down and use the Yellow filter as a trend guide.

The only thing that's stopping the move down is this week's support:- Weekly 50% level.

Based on the current price action I would look for 4 hour and 41 pip patterns.

No probability pattern on Thursday

• All Daily forex reports are written before11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is a MAY high breakout and our expectation is that currencies will continue higher towards the June highs.

This week we have seen prices move down into the 5-Weekly 50% level and find support, and the expectation was that Tuesday would continue higher towards .8122

There is nothing to suggest that Wednesday will move down.

Price is trading above the 5-day 50% level and in theory should continue higher.

Simply don't trade longs below the 5-day 50% level.

The 3-day filter could provide 4 hour resistance (41 pip) down move, but it should remain above the 5-day 50% level and push towards .8122

Note:- never discount a higher Daily open sell down when any price pattern is in a 3-day 'sell' cycle.

AUD is currently in a 3-day sell cycle @ .8122, that's why limit any longs below the 5-day 50% level today.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro should continue higher on Wednesday towards 1.4268.

That can happen from the 5-day 50% level and continue higher (41 pip as first partial exit)

or there could be a push down into 1.3980 (3-day filter) and then continue higher.

A move down into the 3-day filter and then a higher move would provide an ideal set-up towards the 5-day highs.

Note:- Euro in 3-day sell cycle

don't trade longs below 1.3980

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th June 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD push down into the 5-Weekly 50% levels.

The expectation is now that price will swing up from these levels, along with Monday's 5-day lows and head back towards 81.22 over the next 1-2 days.

Random resistance the 5-day 50% level

However, things needs to be confirmed if looking to go long now or today:- price needs a 4 hour close above the Yellow filter.

Otherwise price can easily be pushed back down on Tuesday:- 41 pips and random length

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Same pattern on the Euro and same expectation as the AUD.

Price needs to be above the Yellow filter and heading back to the 5-day 50% level and or higher.

If price moved up into the 5-day 50% level on Monday and then sold off, then there could be another move down towards Tuesday's lows.

At this stage the view is price is moving back to retest the Friday 5-day low breakout:- 1.4020-1.4064

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th June 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation currenices are moving down into the 5-week 50% levels (brown)

Monday is a lower Weekly open that can see prices move towards the 5-day 50% level if rising up from support or trading on the side of the Yellow filter.

However, at this stage AUD isn't rsing up from support and trading below thew Yellow filter



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trade on the side of the Yellow filter.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

6th June 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly



Currencies are coming down into their 5-week 50% levels.



These levels are viewed as support for a continuation towards the June highs.



That's the view at this stage because of the MAY high breakout.



Like a 5-day day breakout extends higher into the next 5-day high, the same is played out in the monthly range.



Daily report out next week, but with the break of the 5-day lows on Friday, the expectation is that price will pus down on Monday


Euro Monthly and Weekly


Same expectation on the Euro, pushing down into the Weekly 50% level

5-day pattern

Froday breakout and should push down into Monday's lows, ideally from a higher move and sell down from the Friday' break.

Daily report next week around 9am Monday

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

5th June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Thursday 11am selling in the first 4 hour period and 41 pip down move, and then the rest of the day consolidated.

Friday:- At this stage I would stick to trading on the side of the 5-day 50% level with the bias to push down into the Weekly 50% levels.

That will obviously change on any move above the 3-day filter on Friday



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Thursday:- 5-day 50% level support back into Yellow filter, and then a stall around the same level @ 1.4230.

Friday:- Each way bet using the Yellow filter as a trend guide.

If price is trading below the Yellow filter and the 5-day 50% level, then the expectation is a move down into the Weekly 50% level (5-day lows).

Above the Yellow filter confirmed with a 4 hour close, would look to push back up into the Red filter

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

4th June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Reversal down from the 3-day filter and breaking the 5-day 50% level and closing below.

At this stage I don't know Thursday will end up a small range day consolidating or whether price continues down and moves back towards the 5-day lows.

Therefore Random resistance levels are the 5-day 50% level and 3-day filter.

If it's going to continue down then 11am and the 5-day 50% level should send it down.

If it's going to be a sideways Thursday, then it's going to push up into the 3-day filter

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation of a pullback down into the 3-day filter played out eventually.

3-day filter initially had a 41 pip support, but failed to bounce closing below.

This isn't a good sign that Thursday is going to be an UP day, but price can still rise up into the Yellow filter.

no probability pattern:-

5-day 50% level and Yellow filter are the trend guides

Below 1.4101 and expectation price is moving back down towards 1.3916

• All Daily forex reports are written before11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT