1st December 2010 USD, Euro, AUD, Daily

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

USD index still heading higher, whilst putting pressure on currencies

especially the euro, which fundamentally is wrecked

Euro monthly and Weekly

Moved down into 4th Quarter lows @ 1.2960

This could result in a minor swing back towards the December 50% level

however, price is currently below the Weekly lows @ 1.3067 (trend guide for the rest of this week

AUD monthly and Weekly

moved down into November's 50% level, but in the monthly chart it is below key support levels.

This may result in the next few days consolidating below those levels @ 9704.

Any further weakness next week is towards the 4th Quarter level @ 93.51

Euro and AUD 5-day pattern

euro looks to be moving down into Wednesday's lows

Trend guide 1.3037 (resistance around the 5-day 50% level)

AUD:- is a random pattern using the brown filter as a trend guide @ 9589

30 November 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro has continued down into the Weekly lows.

There is a breakout of Monday's lows that may see price continue down into Tuesday's lows

At this point if we are looking for more weakness, the best pattern would be to see a minor swing back towards the December 50% level:- resistance (tomoorrow)

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

moving into random support levels around the Weekly lows and November 50% level @ .9546

Trend guide @ .9599

29 November 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend bias is down, but we have a lower Friday close and 5-day support, which often leads to a 2-day reversal pattern:- target 1.3407 (weekly level).

Trend guide during Monday’s first 12 hour period @ 1.3246/56.

A 2-day reversal will then align with the start of the new month and December

Random support 1.3205

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

At this stage the trend bias looks to be moving down into the weekly lows, which aligns with the November 50% level.

However, based on the levels in Monday's range, i'm not sure AUD will drop below .9628 to .9642 during the next 12 hours.

And there's no Friday low pattern that favours a 2-day reversal upwards.

Resistance .9720

27th November 2010 , USD, AUD, Euro GBP, Weekly

USD index

Too many fundamental problems in Europe is putting pressure on currencies whilst supporting the US dollar.

At this stage the trend bias is to continue up towards 81.96+

EURO Monthly and Weekly

Trend bias is to follow the trend down towards 1.2960.

Resistance is based on the Weekly level @ 1.3407

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD just holding support levels, but looks to be moving down into the double weekly levels and November 50% level in the Weekly chart

At this stage the trend won't normally swing upwards until December.

There's a Dilernia Drop in forward month that can continue to push pressure on the trend during the current month

Therefore if support levels don't hold next week, trend bias is down towards .9351

GBP monthly and weekly

Random support around next week's lows and November lows @ 1.5411

if the market swings upwards next week, then the Weekly 50% level is seen as resistance, which is also the November 50% level.

26 November 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend remains bearish....

no probability pattern for Friday

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Random support around Friday's level @ 9737.

But there is the possibility that AUD can continue down into Friday's lows...

which matches the higher timeframe support levels, as shown in the monthly charts (Weekly report)

25 November 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day range.

Trend guide remains bearish as per the monthly charts, and currently trading below the Weekly lows.

At this stage there’s nothing to suggest upside other than short-term up moves.

Currently there has been Wednesday support, which may see a move back towards Thursday’s intra-day levels @ 1.3423 (resistance)

Trend guide 1.3355

Otherwise it is down towards Thursday’s lows



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday's expectation of moving down from the 5-day 50% level only lasted 12 hours until a change in the intra-day dynamics resulted in a move upwards.

AUD continues to look supported, and whilst price remains above the weekly level @ .9787

Trend guide @ 98.73 to 98.22

At this stage i'm not sure whether Thursday moves up from those levels...

or price once again moves down and retests the same Weekly level and channel lows @ .9787 to 9773

no probability in first 12 hour direction

24 November 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro Trading around the weekly lows, but it is below those support levels as shown in the Weekly report @ 1.3633.

Currently trading around the 4th Quarter 50% level @ 1.3415...

but in the 5-day pattern it suggests more weakness down into the 5-day lows 1.3298

trend guide @ 1.3452

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend guide is simply the 5-day 50% level @ .9802

If below this level and the Weekly level @ .9787...

The trend bias is down into the 5-day lows @ .9693

23 November 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro is back trading below key levels in the monthly timeframe.

currently the market is also trading below the levels in the 5-day range and also the Weekly level @ 1.3628.

I would like to think the Euro is moving upwards, but not unless  price is trading back above 1.3654.

At this stage it looks to be moving down into the channel lows @ 1.3523

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage price is supported at the 5-day 50% level, but being pushed towards the weekly level @ 9787

Random pattern for the first 12 hours using .9881 as the trend guide

22nd November 2010 , USD index Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

As per weekly report, the key support levels in the Euro are based on the monthly levels @ 1.3533-60.

Last week’s price action is important because of Friday’s close above those levels and this week opening above those levels.

At this stage:- Monday is above a number of important levels, and in the first 12 hours the support and trend guide is 1.3705

Even though there is a possibility that there could be a minor push down into the weekly level @ 1.3628 some time this week, I think the best set-ups would be looking for trades on the long side using support levels

Random resistance:- Weekly 50% level and Monday's highs





                                                           AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD is still trading below the Weekly 50% level, therefore there is a possibility that the AUD moves down into the Weekly level @ 9787


Random resistance and Monday's highs @ 9931 to 9940.

Don't hold short trades above those levels, because of the larger timeframe patterns which suggests further upside in the 4th Quarter.

Trend guide @ 9906 for the first 12 hours

20th November 2010 , USD, AUD, Euro GBP, Weekly

USD index

At this stage it is too early to tell whether the USD index will continue up or drop coming into the 3rd month of the Quarter.

normally when the market breaks above, as it did this week...

the weekly timeframe would continue to trend upwards over the first 5-days, and not reverse down.

The price action might end up providing the continuation of the downtrend, but it would need to be verified using the December levels.

Fundamentally I would say the USD index continues down because of the FED's decision to print money...

but with the problems in Europe at the moment, that might cause traders to flee the Euro and move into the USD

Euro monthly and weekly

Currently trading on major support levels and also a double Weekly low pattern this week

This is setting up for the euro to continue higher...

using the Weekly level @ 1.3638 as a trend guide.

The continuation of the trend won't be confirmed until the euro is trading above the 3-week 50% level

AUD Monthly and Weekly

I would have preferred the AUD to have hit .9641 this week and found support above the 3-month 50% levels.

At this stage it is too early to tell whether the AUD moves down into support levels...

or remains within the Weekly channels

GBP monthly and Weekly

looks to be consolidating until December

if GBP is going to continue higher, the ideal pattern would be for the Weekly lows and matching November 50% levels to be tested @ 1.5809 1.5853 

19th November 2010 , USD index Euro AUD, Daily

USD Index

USD index has failed to continue with higher daily closes, as the market remains below the single monthly highs…

And it won’t take much for the Index to close back below the November 50% level (weekly close) and continue down from next week.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

The Euro is trading right on key support levels as shown in the monthly chart @ 1.3633.

In the Weekly chart, the double Weekly lows this week and price trading above the November 50% level has to potential to continue higher in the short-term back towards the Weekly level @ 1.3724.

Yesterday’s expectation was that the 5-day 50% level would form resistance, but that changed during the US timeframe

At this stage there is nothing to suggest a lower Friday close unless price is trading below the 5-day 50% level.



                                                         AUD Weekly and 5-day range

I was looking for the trend to continue down into the Weekly lows @
9629, however a shift in intra-day dynamics on Wednesday during the
US timezone changed that, resulting in the Weekly level @ 9763 and matching filter push the AUD into a higher daily close

Thursday’s resistance @ the 50% level failed during European trading
hours and now the AUD looks to be moving back towards the Weekly
50% level and Friday’s highs.

I would look at Friday’s highs as resistance during the Asian timezone,
but that can change 12 hours later.

18th November 2010 , Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro finding support around the 2nd Weekly lows but below the November 50% levels, as shown in yesterday’s report.

Wednesday’s trading formed an inside day, which might see Thursday continue down.

Yesterday I was looking for the market to continue down from Tuesday’s breakout into Wednesday’s lows, but the Weekly lows has supported the euro and it now looks to be moving back towards the 5-day 50% level on Thursday.

If the trend is going down, then Thursday shouldn’t be trading above the 5-day 50% level.

Resistance 1.3617

5-day 50% level @ 1.3592

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation on the AUD of moving down into Wednesday’s lows, but the weekly level is supporting the trend and price is swing back into the 5-day 50% level.

5-day 50% level is seen as the trend guide & resistance @ .9847-56

don’t trade shorts above .9880

17th November 2010 , USD index Euro AUD, Daily

USD index:-

US dollar crashes through the Weekly highs, and this trend is likely to continue into higher highs by Friday putting pressure on Currencies to drop down into support levels.

Unless there is a weekly close back below the November 50% level later this month, the trend bias is to continue to trend towards 81.92

Euro Monthly and 5-day

Trading below the single monthly lows and 3-month 50% level is bearish. (break)

There is the 4th Quarter 50% level @ 1.3415 that may support the trend, but unless there is a weekly close back above 1.3633 the trend bias this month is down

Currently there is a 5-day low breakout, therefore there’s an expectation of further weakness towards the Daily lows @ 1.3400

Resistance @ 1.3529

AUD Weekly

AUD continues the rotation down from the November highs into the
lower weekly levels.

We have a similar pattern in October, but the market dynamics
has changed and I don't think November is going to find support at
this Weekly level @ .9763 and continue higher for the rest of the month.

What I want to see is how the Weekly timeframe (Friday) closes in
relation to .9641, as this is my support level for November.


                                                         AUD Monthly and 5-day pattern

The critical level on the AUD are the support levels @ 9704 & 9641 in the monthly chart.

In the 5-day range it looks to be moving down into Wednesday’s lows

Resistance .9774- 9793

16th November 2010 , USD index Euro AUD, Daily

USD index

Dollar index continues to rise and follow the 2nd weekly high pattern.

The extreme bearish pattern and ‘sell’ off from the November 50% level isn’t playing out at this stage.

The only way to confirm this would be for the 2nd weekly highs and Tuesday to reversal and close back below the November 50% level.

While that happens currencies continue to remain flat with a downward bias

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro has continued down with the weekly pattern and 5-day 50% level on Monday.

Tuesday can continue to push down into the lows.

At this stage it is too early to say whether the Euro will continue upwards until it is trading above 1.3724



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD trading below the Weekly 50% level and looks to be moving down into Tuesday’s lows and also the lower weekly levels @ .9763

This morning there was a breakout above .9905, which I went long on looking for a move back towards the 5-day 50% level @ 9962… (85 pips up)

but that failed, instead reversing down 85 pips

Trend guide on Tuesday .9850

Random resistance 5-day 50% level and channel highs @ .9912

if above .9912 it once again becomes a potential minor breakout during the 12 hours back towards .9964

otherwise the trend bias to continue down into Tuesday’s lows

12th November 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

                                                            Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Current price action in the Weekly charts favours a down move using last week's close below the 3-week lows as a trend guide & 1.3724....  towards this week's lows

However, if the USD index follows a reversal pattern down from the November 50% level, then the Euro will continue higher

Trend guide @ 1.3704
Would need to be trading above the 1.3766 during the US timezone to help see the euro move higher back towards the Weekly 50% level.

                                                               AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on the Weekly patterns and Friday's close below the 5-day lows, I would look for the trend to continue down from the Weekly 50% level into Monday's lows & .9763

However, based on the price action in the USD and potential weakness the AUD continue continue to swing back towards the November highs once again @ 1.0110

trend guide .9902

keep an eye on whether price begins to trade above the weekly 50% level & .9940 from 7pm onwards.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13th November 2010 , USD, AUD, Euro GBP, Weekly

USD index

You know my view on the USD index...

it is either going to reverse down next week and begin the next drop into November's lows starting  from Monday...

or there could be a slight push upwards into next week's highs.

Everything points to a bearish pattern unfolding using the past to predict the future.

However, as pointed out in the most recent book and in the Forex section....

 this price action often looks like it is setting up for the next leg downward only the see the following week move into a higher weekly close changing the entire quarterly cycle from bearish into bullish.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

If the Euro is going to follow a bullish pattern then it's going to move up on Monday and then continue towards the November highs using the November 50% level as support.

We don't want to see the euro trading below 1.3633 next week

AUD monthly and Weekly

looks to be moving down towards the November 50% level as shown in the left chart...

However, the AUD can also remain within the weekly levels and move into a consolidation pattern for the rest of the Quarter.

Note:- there is a breakout of the 5-day lows on Friday...

therefore there is the view the AUD is moving down into .9763

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Hard to find a bullish set-up on the GBP at this stage without testing the 3-week lows...

but it will follow the price action of the USD Index

12th November 2010 , USD index Euro AUD, Daily

USD index

USD index has decided to push upward and close on it highs around the key resistance levels in November.

If the trend is going to go down it look more likely to happen from next week’s open and resistance.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday’s view was that Wednesday had found support and price would swing back towards the Weekly 50% level using 1.3752 as support and the trend guide.

However, that failed and the current price action in the Euro looks weak.

At this stage I can’t be bullish again on the euro unless Friday holds support (5-day lows)

Because at this stage we have price trading below key levels (3-week lows)

As per previous Weekly report….(monthly chart)

The KEY support level is 1.3633

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Same expectation on the AUD using 1.0031-38 as support, but the monthly highs is driving the AUD lower towards a lower Weekly close.

And any further weakness on the AUD is towards Friday’s lows ..9919

There are two possible patterns using the monthly chart in the Weekly report as a trend guide…

Friday’s lows hold support and next week begins the next leg upwards using .9961 the monthly trend guide.

Or Friday breaks out and continue to trend downward into the November 50% level @ 97.04 (next Week)


Minor trend guides on Friday @ .9986

11th November 2010 , AUD, Daily Part 2

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern (12:00pm)

As mentioned yesterday….

It was how Wednesday’s lows were going to play out to see if the AUD
was going to swing upwards & continue towards the Weekly highs later
this week.

There was a breakout on Tuesday (intraday) therefore there was
an expectation that Wednesday would make lower lows, with the lows
@ .9983 providing support.

Wednesday remaining within it’s 85 pip range

The most robust pattern for the trend moving higher was then
Thursday’s open above 1.0031 and a continuation back towards
the Thursday highs.

There was an initial spike during the past hour of 41 pips…however it
looks like fake move, which could see more weakness in the short-term,
as price is being pushed down from the 5-day 50% level @ 1.0068

It doesn’t surprise me if there is more weakness, as the AUD is coming
down from the November highs, which can often result in a lower
weekly close.

Thursday's Trend guide 1.0031-38 (3pm)using the next 4 hour period

This week’s support remains around .9961 (Friday’s close)as per Weekly Report

11th November 2010 , USD index Euro AUD, Daily

USD Index

USD index has hit the November 50% levels and 3-week highs.

Let’s see how this going to effect currencies, because if the USD reverses down on Thursday and Friday currencies or going up.

Until the USD index hits the November lows

Euro Weekly and daily range.

Holding support, which was important on Wednesday.

We now look for long set-ups to verify the view that the Euro can continue upwards from these levels to new highs.

Support 1.3752




AUD Weekly and daily range.

Same view as the Euro…

Wednesday’s lows holding support

Support 1.0031  (1.0016)