1st June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro's rise is based on the USD dropping...

Whilst above the Monthly 50% levels the trend is up...

how far it continues will now depend on whether Wednesday closes above or breaks the Weekly highs.

Random resistance the Weekly highs @ 1.4479

AUD Weekly and daily range

Tuesday didn't move up into the upper Weekly level, but continued down into the lower support levels.

There are two patterns that can play out for the rest of this week....

#1) Continue upwards

#2) follow the lower monthly 50% level in June, if the AUD is trading below the Weekly 50% level.

At this stage in the 5-day pattern, it looks like the market is following # 1

unless it's trading below the 5-day 50% level.

Note;- the channels in the 5-day range (white) favours focusing on 41 to 85 pips during each 12 hour pattern

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

31st MAY EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range


11am and the euro is aligning with the MAY 50% level, which will determine whether Tuesday continues higher, or it slips back into trailing support level.

AUD Weekly and Daily range

By the look of the first 12 hour pattern on Tuesday, it looks to be movign towards Tuesday's highs, which match the Weekly level :- random resistance.

trend guide 1.0727/29

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th MAY EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Whenever the trend jumps from Friday into Sunday's 5-day highs, I would normally look for the market to come back towards the 5-day 50% level...

which means a move back towards the Weekly 50% level...

Therefore my view is that the Euro is moving towards lower support levels (11am to 11pm)

AUD Weekly and Daily range


AUD is in a different cycle compared to the Euro, as it's above monthly 50% level, and it hasn't the same extenison pattern into the 5-day highs.

However, for the AUD to continue higher, it needs to come back into trailing support levels within each 12 hour pattern

Note:- 1.0731/35 is the 84 spiral high

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st MAY 2011, USD, EUR, AUD, Weekly

USD Monthly and Weekly

The US Dollar its looking likely it going to collapse in June and break the 2011 lows.

If next week begins to move down, then there is the possibility that could see the trend continue down in June and then extend towards lower lows in July, which will put the USD below 2011 lows, and then likely to extend lower in 2012.

If that occurs then currencies will continue to rise.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

The patterns in the Euro don't 'yet' provide clues that the Euro will trend higher, until it has broken out of the Weekly highs.

the ideal pattern would be to see the Euro test the single monthly low support in June, however if the next 5-days moves upwards then that won't happen.

Basically, any long set-ups from next week in the daily ranges we should look for 'hold' for breakout patterns.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

looks far more bullish for a move towards 1.17+

Next week could remain within the Weekly ranges...

or trend over the next 5-days towards the monthly highs


once again we should look to hold 'long trades' within the daily ranges

27th MAY EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

I would have thought that the euro would have continued higher in the 2nd 12 hour pattern on Thursday, but it failed, and it is now trading below the Weekly level once again.

the Euro could continue up into into Friday's highs, whilst it's above the 11am level after testing support in the 2nd 12 hours

But it could also fail and move down into the Weekly lows if it's below the 5-day 50% level.

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

AUD rising up, but it remains in a tight range.

Friday looks to be moving upwards, but once again there is a 84 spiral top that aligns with the channel highs.

if it continues up early (first 12 hours) then it's seen as resistance.

If the trend moves down into support levels (channel lows)...

then there's more reason to rise up towards Friday's highs late and continue up towards the Weekly 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th MAY EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The Euro is choppy within the 12 hour ranges, but continues to remain below the Weekly level.

I can't get bullish on the euro in the short-term whilst it is trading below the Weekly level...

Once again the Weekly level and 5-day 50% level and channels highs are seen as resistance.

Don't short trade above 1.4152

AUD Weekly and Daily range


is the AUD going to move upwards (above the MAY 50% level)???

Then it will need ot break out of the channel highs and begin trading above the 5-day 50% level.

Otherwise if it's going to go lower then in needs to be trading below 11am support.

Support @ 1.0513

11am random resistance @ 1.0587, matched with the r84 high

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th MAY EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro didn't move down into the Weekly lows, but instead up into the 5-day 50% level.

Wednesday's trading is simply based on the 5 day 50% level and the Weekly level @ 1.4131/52...

This is seen as resistance for a move down towards the random support levels in the first 12 hour range.

Note:- don't short trade above 1.4252, as the Euro could move back towards the Weekly 50% level

However, the overall trend is to continue lower:- don't trade longs below the Weekly lows




AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD found support on the Weekly lows and continues to trade above the MAY 50% level.

Yesterday rose back into the 5-day 50% level, without much weakness (41 pips)...

The Trend looks like it will continue higher, however during the first 12 hour, it continues to look like there is resistance around the 5-day 50% level, which could push the AUD back down into the 11am support @ 1.0521

Note:- AUD is trading below the Yearly highs @ 1.0612

Therefore there is still the possibility that the Weekly lows fail to hold

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th MAY EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Monday's breakout pattern (5-day lows) and then retest in the 2nd 12 hour pattern suggests that more weakness is possible this week.

The USD index is rising in the last week of MAY ,whilst currencies are being driven down into their Weekly lows.

Note;- these Weekly lows are random support zones, because the Euro is trading below the MAY 50% level and also the single monthly lows in the last week of the month, this could see the trend can continue to push towards the MAY lows and extend towards thew June lows

Random support @ 1.3937



AUD Weekly and daily range

Yesterday's price action set-up a move down into the lower weekly levels, and at this stage i'm not sure that these Weekly lows will support the AUD for more than 1 day.

A combination of Tuesday's lows and the Weekly lows could see a swing back towards the 5-day 50% level....but after that the trend becomes an each way bet coming into the end of the month.

As a monthly close (MAY) below the Yearly highs @ 1.0612 could see the AUD drop much further.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd MAY EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

As noted in the Weekly report, the Euro has a trend bias to continue lower, and whilst below the Weekly level the trend bias is down.

However, we have lower levels in the 5-day range, that could see the Euro swing back up towards the 5-day 50% level....


In conclusion:- there isn't a high probability short trade once the 84 pip completes @ 1.40798...

and at this stage, there isn't a high probability long trade whilst it is below the weekly level @ 1.4152

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

Friday high pattern and expectation that price is moving into a 2-day reversal pattern lower.

however, the yearly highs @ 1.0612 can continue to support the market, which could see Monday rise back towards the channel highs...

Bearish pattern would be the AUD trading below 1.0622 and the 5-day 50% level....

As part of a move down into the Weekly lows over the next 2-days.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st MAY 2011, USD, EUR, AUD, Weekly

USD Primary cycles

Does the USD continue to rise upwards in the last week of MAY and continue higher in June???

or does the last week of MAY reverse and close back below the monthly 50% levels, and the trend continues lower in June, breaking out of the Quarterly lows and extending lower into the 3rd Quarter.


Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro is currently in a monthly breakout pattern which should continue to extend lower in the last week of the month, if the USD decides to move upwards.

if not, then the Euro will move back inside the Weekly levels, and the next 5-days has up upward bias into the start of June.

Trend guide @ 1.4152

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD continues to remain above the Yearly highs @ 1.0612, after finding support @ the MAY 50% level

if it's going to continue upwards, then the last week in MAY will move above the Weekly 50% level and trend towards the upper weekly level.

Trend guide @ 1.0612 and also the Weekly 50% level 1.0695

20th MAY EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

the Euro continues to move upwards, as it rises up from the 5-day support levels, which match the R84 spiral lows.

Friday's trading is based on whether the trend continues up towards the Weekly 50% level....

or the MAY 50% level along with Friday's highs stall the market from rising, and next week begins with a 2-day reversal pattern.

Resistance 1.4372/75



AUD Weekly and daily range

higher timeframe support levels are pushing the AUD upwards, helped by the R84 spiral lows during the day.

However, the 12 hour patterns and levels have been choppy.

Friday's trading is based on whether the trend continues up towards the Weekly 50% level....(5-day high breakout)...

or

Friday's highs stall the market from rising, and next week begins with a 2-day reversal pattern.

Resistance @ 1.0705

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th MAY 2011 Euro, AUD Daily report

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

Euro moved down into support levels on Wednesday, providing a 84 pip reversal pattern upwards...

once again I don't know whether the Euro will continue higher...

or the Weekly level @ 1.4299 pushes the trend back down in..

no probability pattern for Thursday

AUD Weekly and daily range


Early rise upwards on Wednesday only lasted 41 pips, before weakness (84 pip reversal) back down into higher timeframe support levels (MAY 50% level).

Based on the current price action, I still favour a move up towards the Weekly 50% level

11am support based on the 5-day 50% level and channel highs

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th MAY 2011 Euro, AUD Daily report

Euro Weekly and daily range

Early resistance @ 1.42220 provided a 84 pip reversal on Tuesday...

And during the 2nd 12 hour pattern we can see a breakout of the channel highs and also above the 5-day 50% level.

However, it doesn't provide any clues on whether the Euro will continue towards the highs on Wednesday...

or whether the Weekly level @ 1.4299 sends the trend down, as part of a move towards the Weekly lows by Friday.

If you think the market is going to continues higher, then the 5-day 50% level and channel highs becomes a random support zone 1.4216 (41 pips +)  (1.4193  41 to 85 pips)

below those levels and the trend bias is down

AUD Weekly and daily range

AUD has consolidated above the support levels (MAY 50% level)... and is currently back above the yearly highs @ 1.0612...

if AUD is going to continue higher, then it's going to rise upwards from 11am using 1.0612 as support, which matches the levels in the daily range...

otherwise be aware of a 3rd day sell-off after the expectation of a 2-day rise from Friday's lows, as mentioned in the Weekly report

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th MAY 2011 Euro, AUD Daily report

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Monday didn't continue down into the Daily lows, instead it moved upwards, topping out at the r84 high and once again moving into a rotation pattern of 84 pips.

The trend bais is down, if we follow the larger timeframe cycles and weekly patterns...

However, on Tuesday there's isn't any ideal set-up to trade during the first 12 hour period.

Random pattern using the white channels as trend guides:- Resistance @ the 5-day 50% level @ 1.4220

AUD Weekly and daily range

11pm up move lasted 84 pips, but the important pattern is it is back above the MAY 50% level and Weekly level.

That level is the critical support on the AUD today, along with the channels...

Support 1.0551

don't trade longs below 1.0549

Note:- AUD is trading below the Yearly highs @ 1.0612, that could continue to resist the trend from rising

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

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16th MAY 2011 Euro, AUD Daily report

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

as Per Weekly report, there is an expectation that there could be further weakness at the start of this week, as the USD Index continues to move upwards

However, around Monday's lows is random support (Weekly lows), that could see a swing upwards in the 2nd 12 hour pattern

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

We have 5-day Friday low support that favours a move upwards (2-days)

but we have a Weekly close below the Yearly highs @ 106.12 and also trading below the MAY 50% level and Weekly level @ 1.05510...

in conclusion:- trend bias is down

however, if it's going to swing upwards, it will probably be after 11pm

14th MAY 2011, USD EUR, AUD, Weekly

USD Index

USD dollar continues to rise, as it is now above the MAY 50% level and also the Weekly levels.

Trend bias is to continue up into this week's highs, which will put continued pressure on the Currencies to fall

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Trend bias is to continue down into the MAY lows, which aligns with the 3-Quarterly 50% level.

Current expectation is to continue and follow the Weekly range in an orderly manner, whilst looking for ideal set-ups to trade and hold....

or intra-day patterns within each 12 hour pattern:- 41 to 84 pips

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD continues to remain above support levels (MAY 50% level) which also has a 5-day low pattern on Friday.

This will normally see the AUD swing upwards for the 2-days, and back towards the Weekly 50% level

However, the only concern that could see more weakness early next week is the Weekly close below the Yearly highs @ 1.0612....

That will only be confirmed by a breakout of the weekly lows

12th MAY 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

the MAY 50% level @ 1.4372 is seen as support (Yesterday's report)

1.4372 supported the trend during the first 10 hours, rising 41 pips, but then it failed, setting up a 11pm sell off down into Wednesday's lows.

Based on the current price action, the expectation is that the Euro is moving down into Thursday's lows and the Weekly lows.

Current resistance around the channel lows @ 11am

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Sadly the AUD didn't rise up into the Wednesday highs (R84 top), because it would have provided a short set-up for a move back down into the start of 11pm levels.

I wasn't expecting Wednesday's reversal on AUD to happen, but as pointed out in yesterday's report....

"I haven't factored in a reversal pattern into the 'dynamic' 5-day 50% level @ 1.0742, but it can happen this week"

It did after 11pm, and it has also broken support levels (Weekly 50% level)

Based on the current price action and below support levels (Weekly 50% level and Daily 50% level, I would think Thursday will continue down into the daily lows...

from there (Thursday's lows) may or may not support the trend..as it moves down into the lower Weekly levels.

I'll be wrong if the AUD begins trading above 1.0753

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th MAY 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

2nd 12 hour support help validate the move upwards using the weekly level @ 1.3332 as support.

current expectation is that price is moving towards the 5-day 50% level @ 1.4520.

whilst above the daily channels the trend is up...

however, if for some reason it dips below, the MAY 50% level @ 1.4372 is seen as support



AUD Weekly and Daily range

Weekly 50% level support, and 2nd 12 hour breakout pattern should see the trend continue up towards Wednesday's highs (random resistance)....

as part of a move towards the Weekly highs by Thursday/Friday

Support:- 1.0820 (11am)

Trailing support is yesterday's highs and also the R84 spiral top @ 1.0792, in case it dips down early in the first 12 hours



Note:-I haven't factored in a reversal pattern into the 'dynamic' 5-day
50% level @ 1.0742, but it can happen this week.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th MAY 2011, AUD, Daily part 2

AUD 15:38

Resistance and moving down towards the 5-day 50% level, which is 84 points down.

1.0723-28 is random support...

with the potential that the trend can move as low as the 2nd 12 hour support level

10th MAY 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The Question remains.... is the Euro rising up from the MAY 50% level..

or ,is it following the trend down into the Weekly lows.

If we look at Monday's price action and the 12 hour patterns on Tuesday, it favours a move upwards.

The channels match the Weekly level @ 1.43320.

the initial move will be to the channel highs, and then towards the 5-day 50% level after 11pm.

I could be wrong, therefore don't trade longs below 1.4332



AUD Weekly and 5-day range

The trend bias is up towards the Weekly highs...

However, Tuesday is opening around the channel highs, which also align with the R84 spiral highs, and that makes it hard to BUY the AUD..

Trend guide 1.0792-98

Personally I would wait until the AUD matches the 2nd 12 hour support zones, which are currently around 1.0707 to 1.0678

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th MAY 2011, AUD, Daily part 2

AUD/USD 15:33

Early resistance based on the morning report...

however, it is now following the view that the trend is following the larger price cycles and moving upwards.

I would partial exit @ 1.0766... (if long)

and hold...target 1.0805 to 1.0821

just in case it's a 4 hour choppy pattern until 11pm

9th MAY 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

There is a 5-day breakout of Friday which would normally extend towards lower lows on Monday

however, whilst it's above the weekly level, that might not happen...

Therefore the trend guide is going to be defined by 1.4418 at 11am

either it's pushed lower,

or it follows the swing back towards the 5-day 50% level

AUD Weekly and Daily range

my view is that the AUD is going higher in MAY, as per Weekly report

However, at 11am it will align with the 5-day 50% level and also an R84 pip high.

therefore trading longs has a risk element to it.....

there are two patterns that can play out..

#1) Weekly 50% level, 5-day 50% level, & r84 high pushes the AUD back down into the channel lows @ 1.0648

#2) continues up to 1.0822.

no probability in which direction it will go

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th MAY USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index Primary and Secondary cycles

As pointed out in last week's report...

My view is that the USD had found it's lows and would begin to rise upwards...

There are two possible patterns that can play out

#1) the trend continues up towards the 3rd quarter 50% level in July, as shown in the left chart.

#2) this current reversal pattern is going to fail to move higher than the MAY 50% level, and also the lows of the 4th Quarter in 2010...

The market consolidates for the next 4-weeks below these levels, and then there's the possibility that the larger timeframe support levels fail in the last month of the 2nd Quarter (June)

Euro Monthly and Weekly

We can see that the reversal pattern in the USD was going to have an affect on the Euro, but the Euro hasn't broken support during this 5-day reversal pattern (Weekly close)

This could lead into a consolidation pattern over the next 3-week's until the start of June

Next week's trend guide is @1.4332

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD found support on the MAY 50% level, and continues to remain above the 2011 Yearly highs @ 106.12

Based on the current price action , I would have to think that the AUD will continue higher, and move towards the monthly highs

Trend guide Weekly 50% level 1.0736

6th MAY 2011, AUD, Daily part 2

AUD Weekly and Daily range

11am rise upwards and back into the 5-day 50% level...

looking at the price action and the patterns in the Weekly and daily range....

There could be a continuation of the move back towards the Weekly level  @ 1.0796 after 11pm