1st November 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

At this stage i'm treating the euro as hitting resistance around the weekly highs, namely @ 1.4022.

however, to verify a reversal pattern price needs to be trading below the white level @ 1.3943-52.

At this stage the 3-week lows are seen as random support, simply because I still have the view that currencies are trying to move towards the November 50% levels.

AUD Weekly and daily range

Trend guide brown filter @ 9848.

possible continuation up into .9920, which is seen as resistance.

To verify any weakness price needs to be trading below .9818

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29 October 2010 ,USD, Euro AUD, GBP, Weekly

USD index

Continues to be supported at the October lows, but the 4th Quarter levels are stopping the Index from rising

Even though next week begins November, the wekly timeframe opens on Sunday on the last day of October, which might see another 5-days of sideways price action between the weekly levels

Euro Weekly and Daily range.

Continues trading around the October highs after a break and extend pattern in the quarterly timeframe.

What this means is, I still have the view that price is still trying to move down into the 3-month 50% levels.

How server a reversal pattern is always dependant on whether the 3-week lows breakout or not.

Therefore the Weekly levels @ 1.4022 & 1.4096 are seen as resistance, and any ideal pattern in the 5-day range (short) should be held just in case there's a 1-day trending pattern that does break support.

AUD monthly and Weekly

Same view as the euro.

9920 is seen as resistance

GBP monthly and Weekly

Weekly levels are simply the trend guide

Either next week drops considerably or there's another 5-days sideways price action.

In conclusion:- I feel currencies are going higher because I believe that the USD index is going  lower.

However, I haven't factored in next week being a timeframe that suggests the trend is going higher

29th October 2010 ,EURO AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Based on the current price acton in the euro, it's hard to see weakness on Friday unless it drops back below

1.3887-97

At this stage the Thursday HOOK pattern could see higher highs on friday

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Whereas, the AUD looks to be pushing back down towards .9714...

as long as it remains below .9808 during US time zone

28th October 2010 ,EURO AUD, Daily

Euro weekly and Daily range

trend guide is 1.3796.

Trend bias is to move down as part of Wednesday's breakout of the 5-day lows.

Random support:- Thursday's lows and the Weekly level @ 1.3704-10

Above 1.3796, and there is a possible swing back towards the 5-day 50% level, but I'd be surprised that happening during the first 12 hours

AUD Weekly and daily range

Weekly level support, but currently there's a breakout of the Wednesday's lows.

Trend guide @ .9715

Resistance :- 9786 to 9797

27th October 2010 ,EURO AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Tuesday has continued down but it hasn't broken the 5-day lows.

Whilst price is below the Weekly levels 1.3892-1.3905 

the trend bias is to continue down

resistance 1.3904

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

I would have preferred more selling on Tuesday, as it has failed to breakout of the lows, and is still above the Weekly 50% level.

Random trend guide/support @ 9834-39

26th October 2010 ,EURO AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

to verify weakness there needs to be a breakout of the lows, and then 1.3892-95 becomes resistance.

At this stage I continue to view the Euro as going down, whilst price remains trading around the October highs.

Trend guide;- 1.3996

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD continues to form resistance around .9979.

If the AUD is going to show any sign of more weakness price will need to be trading below .9889 and moving below the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th October 2010 ,EURO AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

moving up towards Monday's highs @ 1.4078

Trend guide 1.3964.73

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Whilst above .9849 trend bias is back towards monday's highs and the weekly level @ .9960

23 October 2010 ,USD, Euro AUD, GBP, Weekly

USD Index

USD index has found support around October lows, but the 4th quarter low is stopping the index from rising, hence why currencies aren't falling from their October highs

I'm not sure what happen in the Index futures late on Friday, because the same spike upwards wasn't mirrored in currencies.

There is still the possibility that the USD index risings up next week, if price is above the weekly levels @ 76.57 to 76.89

             Imo opinion, USD is setting up from further falls in the 4th quarter and going lower into 2011,

               Which why I’m bullish on currencies to go higher, and it gives some reason why currencies haven't  continued lower after the first 2-days this week, as the USD remains below higher timeframe breakout patterns in the 4th Quarter. (yellow)

But to help validate my long term views of the USD going lower and currencies
going higher, I would still like to see the next trends originate
from November

Therefore whilst we are in October, I will continue to focus on the
short of the AUD & Euro and filter out those expectations on a daily basis.

AUD monthly and Weekly

If the AUD is going to go down, then the simple trend filter is the weekly levels @ 98.49.

This is either going to push the AUD back up into the highs, which may result in another 5-days of sideways price action...

or it's going to sell of and begin to gather selling pace towards the Weekly lows

Euro Quarterly and Weekly

Same applies on the euro:- Trend guide 1.3895.

Either the Euro follows #9

or continues to consolidate until #10 and then pushes higher into 2011

GBP monthly and Weekly

GBP has shown more weakness.

Trend guide 1.5665

moving down into higher timeframe support levels, but at this stage it's too early to tell which support level in the quarterly and monthly timeframes will be valid

Random support 1.5585 (3-week lows)

22nd October 2010 ,EURO AUD, Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trading around higher timeframe resistance levels, but it’s not dropping and breaking support levels.

There is a bias to continue down on Friday, as long as it remains below .9724

However, I’m not sure whether it’s going to breakout of Friday’s lows…

Or simply find support @ .9622 and then swing back upwards early next week.



Euro Weekly and Daily range.

My view is for the euro to continue down, but there isn’t an ideal ‘short trade set-up based on the current price action:-

Resistance @ `1.3971 to 1.4003

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st October 2010 ,USD,EURO AUD, Daily

USD Index

This week's expectation was a 3rd Week reversal beginning with 2-days.

However, as pointed out in the weekly report, the 3-quarterly levels will have a big bearing on whether the USD goes up, or it remains range bound.

One thing for sure, it looks like it's going lower into 2011

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The price patterns in the USD index helps somewhat in giving reason why currencies haven't gone lower.

The euro can go lower on Thursday or at least remain range bound below 1.3993.

but it can also continue to push upwards.

no probability in which direction the euro takes.

Use the levels for the next 12 hours.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Wednesday failed to continue down as part of the larger cycle
reversal pattern from .9979 and Tuesday’s breakout

My Preferred pattern was for AUD to move up into .9814 and the spiral
top during the first 12 hours and get sold down during the US time zone.

Except the opposite occurred, and the US time zone pushed price higher
85 pips

I would like to think price will continue down based on the larger
cycle patterns, but based on the current price action Thursday can
push upwards.

Because of the October high patterns I'm reluctant to trade any longs

Trend guide 98.90

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th October 2010 AUD, Daily PART 2

AUD part 2 15:40

There is a breakout in the 5-day low on Tuesday, therefore there is an expectation that the AUD is moving down into Wednesday's lows, as part of a larger timeframe reversal pattern

Whilst price is above 97.05 is it moving upwards during the 12 hour period.

There are two possible patterns:-

#1 hits the daily 50% level @ 9777 stalls and then moves back down into .9705  (and lower)

#2 or it follows a spike upwards into the next spiral filter @ .9814, which will then be an ideal level to short trade from....

As it matches the breakout from Yesterday's lows, retesting it and hopefully moving back down with a spiral top.

if short or holding shorts from Yesterday, you don't want to see price above .9815

20th October 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Breakout of Tuesday's lows and heading down into Wednesday's lows

Random support @ 1.3625-43. (first 12 hours)

Trend guide @ 1.3772 (first 12 hours)

Note;- we are trading a larger trend reversal that has a bias to move down into a lower Friday close.

This could see the 3-week lows support the euro @ 1.3449.

Or it can see the 3-week lows breakout and continue to trend lower this week, as part of a larger reversal pattern towards the 3-month 50% levels.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Same applies on the AUD:- trend guide 9725-31

random support Wednesday's lows, which matches the weekly lows

There is a larger trend reversal pattern that can see the AUD much lower this week by Friday, as per Weekly report

19th October 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

current price action on Tuesday is part of a 2nd day reversal pattern down from the October highs.

Trend guide @ 1.3979. (5-day 50% level on Tuesday)

if the trend is going to follow a reversal pattern, then Tuesday needs to breakout of the 5-day lows and continue to trend lower:- below the Weekly 50% level

If Tuesday's 5-day lows support the market (Weekly 50% level), then this week could move into another tight 5-day range pattern.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies in the AUD

needs to be trading below .9876 and breaking out of Tuesday's lows .9798

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th October 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, the expectation is to move down, whilst below the Weekly levels.

i'm not expecting Monday to breakout of any support levels, but if the trend is going down, then Tuesday should be the day that breaks out of the 5-day lows

Trend guide Monday's 5-day 50% level and 1.3993

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Sam applies on the AUD ....

Trend guide .9890

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15 October 2010 ,USD, Euro AUD, GBP, Weekly

USD Index

my view is a swing upwards during the 3rd or 4th Week of this month.

The first sign will be price trading above 77.85

target will be the November 50% level.

or price can continue to consolidate for the rest of this month below the 4th Quarter lows @ 78.36.

however, what we see in most currencies is the 5-day Friday patterns, which can start the week with a 2-day reversal pattern that may break support levels (5-day range)

Euro monthly and Weekly

Friday 5-day high, can lead to the next 2-days moving lower.

Trend guide @ 1.3993.

AUD monthly and weekly

Same 5-day Friday highs.

trend guide .9890

GBP monthly and Weekly

Same pattern:- trend guide 1.5973

Eur/USD 15th October 2010

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

trend is simply defined by 1.4025.

If above it can move back towards the friday highs and Weekly highs @ 1/4164

however, whilst below the trend guide is down into support @ 1.396-73.

If it breaks out of that level, then the trend bias is to continue down into a lower Friday close.

This is based on the possibility that the USD index begins to climb upwards during the 3rd week of the month, which hasn't been confirmed as yet.

AUD/USD report below

AUD/USD 15th October 2010

AUD monthly and daily range

AUD currently stalled around the October highs @ 9979, and I would have

preferred Thursday to have moved down further and be trading around

.9840 (#3) then where it is now.

Trend guide for the next 12 hours as shown in the right chart

@ .9945/54.

 

As mentioned two days ago… “at this stage I

would focus on 41 to 85 pip ranges”

What we can see in the bottom chart is a 85 pip reversal from the highs in the left chart on Thursday, but as the trend is reversing down we have.... (right chart)

41 pip spiral tops occurring providing traders with amply opportunities of getting back into the trend (if you were screen trading overnight)



The idea is to find ‘observed phenomena’ and use it to your advantage

once the parameters align:- sell higher opens using resistance & buy

lower opens using support, whilst optimizing the daily price action within

the larger timeframe cycles.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th October 2010 , USD Euro & AUD, Daily

USD Index

USD index trading around the October lows and my view is that the Index will try and swing back towards the November 50% level and then continue down again.

If that's going to happen then it's going to align with the 3-Week of the month, with price trading above next week's 50% levels.

At this stage there is still the possibility that the Index can push down into the Weekly lows

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

The euro can continue to trend higher towards the Weekly lows, but there's isn't an ideal long trade today.

Support remains 1.3949.

much less so if the market is reversing down from Thursday's highs in the US timezone.

Bearish pattern would be trading below support on Thursday

AUD monthly and Weekly

Target on AUD will complete @ 9979, which aligns with Thursday's highs.

My view is a potential 3rd week reversal pattern (next week), but I need to see lesser timeframe patterns to help verify the pattern.

I think AUD will continue to trend upwards and break parity, but the most robust trending pattern (after .9979) is to see the market reverse down and then continue higher from November's 50% level

13th October 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

based on the current price action and Tuesday's 5-day low reversal...

Trend bias is to continue upwards

Support:- 1.3876-86

Note;- trading around October highs, therefore it price is trading below intra-day support Wednesday's trend is bearish

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

Trend guide in the first 12 hours is 9868, with a bias to move upwards.

If below, then there is more intraday rotation of 41 to 85 pips

random support @ 9795 to 9800

12th October 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

higher weekly open and reversing down into 1.3772

before it gets down into random support levels...

 the resistance levels are...1.3893-97

Note:- as per Weekly report I'm looking for larger reversal patterns in currencies, but at this stage it is too early to tell unless Tuesday's 5-day lows breakout

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD testing the previous weekly breakout @ 98.17

support as shown @ 98.09

this could send AUD back into a higher daily close and towards 9948...

verifed with price trading above 98.35

however, below support and it is a 2nd day reversal pattern towards 97.60 

(support .9727)

11th October 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Monday's trading is simply based on the trend guide @ 1.3980 (next 12 hours)

AUD weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies :- trend guide @ 9876

9th October 2010 ,USD, Euro, GBP, AUD, Weekly

USD Index

moving into support levels on October around the lows, but there support levels need to be verified with price trading back above the 3-week 50% levels and the Quarterly levels (Yellow)

At this stage my view is that any potential reversal might not happen until the 3rd or 4th week of this month.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Trend around resistance levels in October with the view that price is moving back down before it can continue higher

We look for patterns in the 5-day range to 'time' the short trades.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

moving upwards next week into the highs (resistance)

AUD monthly and Quarterly

Target @ 9979  (resistance)

reversal of the trend will begin with price trading below 97.60