FOREx EUR/USD 4th August 2008

Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

After reading the Weekly report the expectation is that the Euro is heading down into the Weekly lows, but the most robust pattern would be a test and reject pattern around the August 50% level.

A bit to early to trade the Euro, as most moves occur during the GMT hours, but the 3-day filter is the trend guide on Monday.

Normal Monday pattern is a test of the 5-day 50% level and reject down 41 pips and then move higher, as shown above.

However this time:- the 3-day highs aren't matching the 5-day 50% level, which is when this most often occurs.

Therefore:- euro traders trade on the side of the 3-day filter and I can't discount Monday moving lower into Monday's lows, which isn't a probability pattern.