1st November Weekly AUD, EURO, GBP

AUD Monthly and Weekly charts:-

Breakout of 4th Quarter and October lows:- expectation of a move down into November's lows.

Could occur early next week:- Monthly balance point sell down into November's lows.

Whilst price is below Monthly balance point then that's the only view I have.


AUD 3-day pattern

Trade the filters and trend direction:- If November is going to continue down we should know very early next week:- 3-day filter should push AUD down...

Higher Weekly open, below 50% levels, breakout of higher time frame lows, and 3-day filter resistance

Everything is pointing DOWN....

Above 3-day filter and it's obviously not happening in the short-term


Last Week I modelled the market simply using the 3-day levels, but more often than not my spiral filters weren't matching price action even though the intra-day filters defined the trend quiet well.

7 trades

4 winners 211 pips
3 losses 32 pips

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Same expectation on Euro as the AUD!

EURO 3-day filter...

A bit early to say whether the euro will sell down or not, as I would like to see a 3-day filter HIGH Sell....

However the 5-day 50% level should define the trend next week.

Confirming sign will once again be a breakout of the 3-day lows.

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When the AUD spirals don't align I can bet the Euro spirals will during Asian trading hours.

The previous week I struggled with the Euro only trading 5 times for 165 pips.

This week :- more rotation than trending = more frequency

27 trades

21 winners 953 pips
6 losses 61 pips

Note:- IF currencies drop next week and move down towards November lows, this will once again translate into a trending period, which will result in less frequency using spiral filters.

Therefore If I get a decent set-up next week, I'm going to try and hold 1 LOT using a 2-day trending period.

2-day trend period:- thrust pattern leads to a breakout of the current day and extends down into the next day.




GBP Monthly & Weekly

The same expectation on the Pound as others:- below 4th Quarter lows and expectation that price is pushing down into November lows.

This week trade on the side of the Weekly 50% level, along with using the 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

31st October 2008 AUD EURO Daily part 7

AUD 15:15

Push back into the brown filter:- random resistance that could push the AUD back down into the 5-day 50% level...

However no spiral filter set-up to short trade as yet....

Euro:- I expected the completion of the pink to pink move by now... but still in the game...

31st October 2008 AUD EURO Daily part 6

Euro 13:55

Euro has taken off on the same pattern...

For those you want to keep an eye on this pattern in the future:- Make sure there is a cross over of the pink and brown with a reverse spiral.

It normally moves away from the pink spiral and move about 30 pips and then comes back to re-test the level before completing the first 41 pip...


More often than not the 2nd r41 pip won't reverse down but continue with:- 3X41

I currently see this reversal, and price could actually drop back down into the pink once again but still holding.

Readded 2nd lot @ 1.2807 exit 1.2842 + 35

Holding open with breakeven stop @ entry 1.2808:- target remains pink to pink

31st October 2008 AUD EURO Daily part 5

EUR:- 13:35

The best trading set-up all week has been this exact set-up....

however I don't know how well it's going to follow through below the 5-day 50% level

Long 1.2808 partial exit 1.2828 +20 (stops 1.2796)

holding for a pink to pink move...

31st October 2008 AUD EURO Daily part 4

AUD: - 12.00pm

AUD pushed down at the start of the new day, and now it looks like it's going to range trade between the brown filter and the 5-day 50% level.

Short .6651 stopped 6661 -10


Euro:- break of the 5-day 50% level

Wasn't exepcting that even though I shorted the Spiral filter.

Long 1.2772 stopped 1.2761 -11

Even though it's hooked back above the pink filter.... it's trading below the 5-day 50% level so going to sit it out...

Look at both closer to 3pm

31st October 2008 AUD EURO Daily part 3

EUR:- 10:23

Short 1.2891 exit all 1.2855 + 36

normally I would hold this trade for a pink to pink trade, but it's trading above support...

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

31st October 2008 AUD EURO Daily part 2

AUD 9:32

Long 6733 partial exit 6759 + 26

Coming into 11am and each way bet on the direction of AUD:- brown filter

Using the spiral filters at this stage I favour an up move

holding pink to pink move (stops breakeven entry)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

31st October 2008 AUD EURO Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern:- 7:40am

AUD came down into the 3-day filter on Thursday (Wednesday's high) and found support.

No probability on Friday's direction:- but if AUD is going to continue upwards on Friday towards the highs, then it should be trading above the brown filter...

Below and it's slipping back down into the 5-day 50% level, which closes out the month and the possibility of more downside into November's lows.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

There was a major spike upwards on Thursday during Asian hours which surprised me....

The ideal pattern on Thursday was to stall at Thursday's highs and rotate back down into the 3-day filter high support zone:- Yellow.

Friday:- 3-day high support verified

and now it's all about the brown filter:- Above and it's moving towards Friday's highs.

Below the 5-day 50% level is a random outcome, as it's not part of this 5-day pattern for more weakness.

I would think more selling has a greater probability from a higher Weekly open and selling down from either a Monthly 50% level or a 3-day high filter

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 6

Euro 19.30

Expectation of a pullback into Thursday's highs...

Short 1.3225 exit 1.3173 + 52

Any further push down would be from an R41 rejection top and continue down into Thursday's highs:- pink to pink move

30th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 5

Euro 17:35

Euro push down towards Thursday's highs....

Long 1.3138 exit 1.3185 + 50

no more trades on Forex today...

Next Report tomorrow

30th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 4

Euro 15:00

I certainly wasn't expecting such a drive upwards during Asian Trading hours, but a move towards the October low breakout coming into the end of the month isn't unexpected.

I would think that sometime during Thursday price will come down and retest Thursday high @ 1.3091

30th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 3

EURO 12:00

Euro continues up into Thursday's highs....

Short 1.3081 partial exit 1.3055 + 26

Last trade for today before I step out....

Breakeven stops from entry and holding down 90 pips from today's high @ 1.3005 Back into Brown filter.

30th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 2

AUD 9:25

Pushing back down into the 3-day filter amd moving pick to pink.

Random support blue filter on THursday:- confirmed @ 11am.

Short .6683 covered .6626 + 57

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th October 2008 AUD, EURO Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern


There is an expectation of a push higher towards the Weekly 50% level....

If AUD is going to continue towards Thursday's highs, then it should in theory find support above Wednesday's 3-day filter:- and Blue filter

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Euro reached the Weekly 50% level on Wednesday, which can be a major resistance level in any downtrend.

But there is also the view that Currencies and Index Markets are looking to rotate back towards their November 50% levels next week.

Thursday:- currently there is a breakout of Wednesday's highs, which favours a continuation upwards

Thursday is simply defined by the 3-day filter:- random support

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 10

EURO 18:10

Pink to pink Exit @ 1.2790 + 93

No more trades today...

29th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 9

Euro:- 15:07

Bounce off support and looking to move towards Wednesday's highs.

Long 1.2697 partial exit 1.2730 + 33

holding Pink to Pink...

Stops trailing 1.2707

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AUD exit .6412 + 72 (double R41 range).

Last trades for today...

29th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 8

AUD 16:45

Spiral and Brown support:-

Long .6341 partial exit 6375 + 34

holding for a double... (breakeven stop)

It's either going to reverse down or finally show some love and complete a move upwards.

Note:- any further gains could see AUD around Wednesday's highs on any rate cut by USD

29th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 7

Euro 16:25

Continues down into Support...

Long on Spiral @ 1.2657 stopped .47 -10

More than likely to continue down into 1.2616

29th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 6

AUD 15:10

reverses down below the 5-day 50% level and looking to move down....

Takes my stop out and the AUD continues to show me no love this week.

Random support Brown and blue filters:- keep an eye previous 5-day 50% level, which matches blue filter @ 6302

Euro 15:10....

Below 50% level and heading down into support levels shown......

29th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 5

Forex 13:30 AUD & Euro

AUD:- trading below the 5-day 50% level, but no matching spiral filter...

Each way bet:- Short 6415 (stops 6425)

Exit 1 X44 (higher risk trade)

AUD is showing me no love this week, as filters not aligning with price action that well during Asian trading hours.


EURO:- completes the R41 up move, but it had taken my trialing stop. (breakeven @ entry)

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Stopped on AUD .6425 -10

29th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 4

Euro 12:13

Long 1.2720 partial exit 1.2735 + 15

gut feeling say's Euro might not swing upwards because of this 4 hour pattern...

That's why the partial cover here and not holding...

Breakeven stop from entry and exit on 1x41 completion.

29th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 3

Euro 12:00

Euro Reversing down into the 5-day 50% level....

Support should be verifed with 3pm support, as this 4 hour timeframe could continue down into 3-day filter support around 1.2635.

Short 1.2795 exit all 1.2735 + 60

On sidelines

29th October 2008 AUD, EURO part 2

AUD and EURO 11:00am

Three hours is a long time in forex and both the AUD and Euro have continued higher on Tuesday.

This has pushed the levels higher on Wednesday.

As per previous report:- 50% level random support and 3-day filter and Wednesday's highs random resistance.

29th October 2008 AUD, EURO Daily

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern 8:00am

Currencies like Indexes have rallied off Tuesday's lows and looking to move into the Weekly 50% level, and probably go looking for the November 50% level next week.

Wednesday:- 3-day filter resistance

5-day 50% level random support.

If the AUD is going to go higher then it makes it difficult to be trading longs around Wednesday's highs.

Ideally pattern would be to see the AUD move down into Tuesday's 50% level once again:- brown filter, and then continue higher once again.

Keep in mind the US FED could be cutting rates today, and if that is the case it could weaken the US dollar, which favours the AUD rising.

Note:- I haven't been trading the AUD much this week because the Spiral filters haven't been matching the price action, which often occurs during Asian trading.

When that happens, as pointed out before, the Euro is much more robust

Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

Tuesday rally hitting the 3-day filter.

If the Euro is going to go higher:- ideal pattern would be to see price rotate back down into the 3-day filter support on Wednesday and then continue higher towards the Weekly 50% level.

Spiral Filter:-

When I stopped trading yesterday there were a couple of nice intra-day swing patterns, whilst Tuesday was supported before rallying into the close:- break above 5-day 50% level.

The late push upwards into Tuesday's 3-day filter provided a 7am spiral top...

Short 1.2736 covered 1.2680 + 56

On sidelines until 11am

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th October AUD, EURO Daily part 8

Euro 17:34

Exit last 1.2554 + 69

Euro will probably continue towards the 5-day 50% level:- random resistance

no more Updates today....

After 10 hours of trading it simply does your head in

Next Report tomorrow

28th October AUD, EURO Daily part 7

EURO 17:10

What was resistance in the first 4 hours becomes support in the next....

Long 1.2485 partial exit 1.2520 + 35

Breakeven stop holding for double and exit..


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Last trade today no more Updates after this exit

28th October AUD, EURO Daily part 6

EURO :- 16 35

Euro moved up into filter resistance and spiral filter...

Short 1.2480 stopped 1.2490 -10

looks like a bias to move upwards, similar price action to Index markets...

Random resistance 5-day 50% level, but could go as high as the 3-day filter

28th October AUD, EURO Daily part 5

Euro 15:15

long 1.2401 exit all 1.2430 +29

Trading below the 3-day filters but above the Spiral:- exit and wait

28th October AUD, EURO Daily part 4

Euro 13:40

Short on filter with the expectation price was continuing down:- 1x41

1.2379 stopped 1.2389 -10

Price now looks like it's moving back towards Today's highs once again...

Random support and resistance shown...

28th October AUD, EURO Daily part 3

Euro 12:05

Exit pink to pink @ 1.2385 + 94

And probably continue down into Tuesday's lows.....

28th October AUD, EURO Daily part 2

AUD 11:40

Trading on the side of the 3-day filters:- 6082...

Short first spiral @ .6048 stopped 6060 -12

Short at filter @ 6080 covered @ 6057 + 22 (brown filter).

There is an expectation of further weakness, but not aligned with spiral filters.

AUD price action and filters haven't been aligning that well this week, whereas the Euro has been much better in this timezone. (Asian)

Euro and CHF

Short 1.2479 partial exit 1.2448 + 31

and holding for pink to pink move. (stops breakeven entry)

EUR/CHF:- was a hedge bet if Both AUD and Euro trades failed, at least CHF would make up for the losses if wrong...

Long 1.4418 exit all 1.4444 + 26

28th October AUD, EURO Daily

AUD Daily

AUD looks to be pushing down into Tuesday's lows, which goes close the the Weekly lows...

Trend guide simply use the brown filter.

Ideally I wanted Monday to move higher and back into the 5--day 50% level and then trade down, but at this stage price looks to be pushing lower and the rotation back towards the Weekly 50% levels could occur from tomorrow.


Euro Daily and 3-day pattern

Weekly lows reached on Monday, and at this stage there isn't a breakout on Monday to confirm more weakness into Tuesday's lows.

But the trend guide should still be defined by the Filters:- below and it's heading down into Tuesday's lows. Above and it's rotating

EURO: spiral filter

Yesterday I had the view of support and a rotation back into the 5-day 50% level, but once the levels broke price pushed down into the Weekly lows.

I stopped trading, but there were a number of Spiral rejection patterns on the way down and the reversal upwards during GMT and US trading hours.

and once it reached 1.2574 again (resistance) price has pushed down:- confirmed with the filter.

Therefore the brown filters are trend guides, and it's simply about trading and using spiral filters to trade the direction of the market each day

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
  

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th October AUD, EURO, Daily part 9

Euro 16:05

Short 1.2620 exit all 1.2589 + 31

Long 1.2577 (stopped 1.2547 -10)

If euro was going to go higher it would have bounced off support and moved upwards in this 4 hour period.

At this stage it's heading down.

No more Trading on Forex today.

Next Forex report tomorrow

27th October AUD, EURO, Daily part 8

Euro 14:35

R41 ended up a Hook pattern and bounced off 1.2574....

Went short 1.2579 stopped 1.2589 -10

At this stage Euro is trading above support and below the Friday's lows....

There is still the potential of a rise towards the 3-day filter, as a bearish pattern would have reversed down and be trading below support @ 3pm.

On sidelines...

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Not Trading AUD today..

27th October AUD, EURO, Daily part 7

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th October AUD, EURO, Daily part 6

Euro 14:00

Exit 1.2546 + 28

If it swings back up into another R41 top going to short it again...

After 3pm I won't short Euro again.

27th October AUD, EURO, Daily part 5

Euro 13:35

Short 1.2574 and target is down 41 pips and exit.

Price is trading around support, and could find buyers appearing after 3pm....

However because of the price pattern and spiral filter I've taken another 'short' with the expectation price is moving down into Monday's lows.

Friday test and reject pattern.....


stops 1.2584 (-10)

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No AUD trades today....

27th October AUD, EURO, Daily part 4

Euro:- 12.30

Euro moved down support reversed upwards and formed a rejection.

Short 1.2619 exit all 1.2594 + 25

I wanted to go long off 1.2574 earlier but it didn't hit support and reversed upwards.

Even though 1.2574 is a valid support zone, the rejection pattern favours a downside move

On sidelines......