Euro Monthly and WeeklyThis week has seen the Euro rally into the Weekly highs which matched the November balance point:- Resistance.
Once price reached the highs early on Tuesday, there was an expectation that price had to come back down and retest the Weekly 50% level:- this has now occured.
What we also notice is the shift in the monthly balance point in November from above (resistance) to matching in December.
If price is above this December BP, then the expectation is that over the next 4 weeks the Euro will consolidate in a tight trading band, which will result in Higher weekly closes followed by lower Weekly closes.
The trading range will probably remain supported between the December BP and the Decembers 50% level.
However, below the December balance point and the Euro can push down into December's lows.
Euro 3-day patternAnd what we notice on Friday is actually a breakout of the 3-day range, which favours further down moves :- breakout & resistance @ 5-day 50% level.
In conclusion:- at this stage based on a number of patterns and Friday's breakout, I favour a down move early December.
That can obviously change if Monday moves down, but Tuesday reverses upwards and 'HOOK's above the Weekly and Monthly BP, which will favour a higher Friday close.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
