AUD Monthly and WeeklyLast Week's view was for the AUD to continue up towards the quarterly 50% level and January highs, simply because of the Friday support above the January 50% level:-
Pattern using Support:- lower Weekly open and rising upwards.
However, Monday opened lower and changed the entire Week's set-up, resulting in no Weekly set-up for the entire week.
As a trader we need to analyse the data and then make conclusion using pattern recognition techniques and probability patterns.
Next week:- This week price has closed below the Weekly lows (breakout), therefore the probability is that price will continued down into the Weekly lows, as it follows the trend down towards the Monthly lows.
As Traders we should be trading down from the Weekly balance point or Weekly 50% level and down into next Week's lows.
Of course, if it's above those levels then the probability pattern has failed and traders need to adjust using the 3-day pattern set-ups....
AUD 3-day patternEven though last week's trading set-up didn't go to plan, as a trader I still need to use levels in the market that will help me define trends:- support and resistance, and likely entry points.
The rest of last week was left to day-trading the levels within the 3-day pattern, along with 1 higher probability pattern shorting the 5-day 50% level confirmed with a 4 hour top on Wednesday.
But the rest of the trading days I already knew the direction I should be trading and should not be trading simply based on the 3-day closing price at midnight.
This is ideal for Asian based traders in trending markets, as it allows random length ranges over the course of the first 4 hour timeframe:- 1x 41 pip ranges or multiples x 41 ranges.
It also tells us what not to be trading if price moves in the opposite direction
For example:- Monday and Thursday down.
Even if you shorted Wednesday and were stopped out, you already had a view where the market was heading (5-day 50% level) .
A day trader can adjust to the price action unfolding and switch to trading long up into the 5-day 50% level and exit. And then re-adjust back into 'shorts'.
Wednesday was the high probability pattern for any trading week:- rotation into the 5-day 50% level and extend outwards, as the Weekly trend moves lower
Friday:- was above the blue but the 3-day filter was seen as probability resistance, but it failed.
Not every trade will be a winner, not every level will move in the direction you want it to go.
And not every trader has the luxury to pick up all the major moves in the market, simply because of the Timezone they are trading
By the Time US based traders are trading in their own timezone, then hopefully a pattern that Asian based traders didn't trade, is part of the 3-day pattern analysis, whether it's rotation or extension.
Euro Monthly and Weekly
Last's Weeks view was for the Euro to continue down into the Weekly lows.
However once again the high probability set-up didn't go to plan :- early rise up into the Weekly midpoints and short-trade down.
Next Week:- trade on the side of the Weekly balance point @ 1.3254
Either price continues down into the Weekly lows, or moves upwards and back into the Weekly 50% level & January 50% level next week.
At this early stage I favour a move down.
Daily report out on Monday after 11am
GBP Monthly and Weekly
GBP's view was for price to move upwards, but first I wanted to see Monday move down.
Monday had to find support around the Weekly 50% level, and then we would look to trade longs on Tuesday.
However Monday failed to hold breaking timeframe 50% level support.
Then the pattern changed:- look for a move back into the 5-day 50% level matched by the Weekly 50% level and short trade down into the Weekly lows.
Once again that didn't happen.
It finally did move back into the Weekly 50% level on Friday.
Next Week:- Short trade the Weekly 50% level down into the Weekly lows
Daily report out on Monday after 11am
