AUD Monthly and WeeklyAfter last Week's rally I wasn't convinced that currencies against the USD would continue upwards.
Even though some were trading above their Monthly 50% levels, the failure to double bottom around the Monthly lows in February means there is a lack of probability that prices will move higher.
Last Week was about shorting the Higher Weekly open using the Weekly 50% level is a trend guide, with the view of price come back down into the February 50% level.
And the Weekly 50% level will be the trend guide for next week.
I'm still bearish on the AUD down into February's lows.
But there could be a Weekly 5-day rotation pattern that closes higher:- Monthly 50% level support, Weekly 50% level support, and lower Weekly open.
At this stage I would need some verifying patterns to confirm the latter, otherwise we still need to trade on the short side.
AUD 3-day pattern
The Weekly 50% level was the trend guide, and Monday provide a short trade but no follow through on the downside.
Tuesday ended up more ideal, because the 3-day filter along with the Weekly 50% level provided the short-set-up to continuation down with the break of the 5-day 50% level.
But what made it even more valid was the S&P's drop on Tuesday, sending all Index markets lower and the majority of currencies lower.
There is only 1 or 2 probability patterns per week, and Tuesday's trading was it.
GBP Monthly and WeeklyLast week's up move was verified by the Daily HOOK pattern over the Weekly 50% level, but I was still looking for a reversal back down.
And once below the Monthly 50% level along with a higher Weekly open, Tuesday provided the ideal set-up.
Next Week:- expectation of lower prices into February's lows, but the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide
GBP 3-day patternMonday pushed higher hitting the 3-day filter, and Tuesday followed with another short-set-up and sell-off down into Wednesday's lows:- 2-day pattern.
Besides Friday's late spike above the 3-day filter and failure, there was nothing to suggest higher prices on Friday compared to last week.
Euro Monthly and WeeklyStill expecting lower prices into February's lows, and the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide.
Last Week the Euro was choppy and not providing any ideal set-ups for day traders.
Even though the Weekly 50% level resisted price and the trend is down, compared to the AUD & GBP is wasn't a good spread to be trading compared to the others.
Euro just didn't have the same higher Weekly open as last week to drive a large trend down, unlike AUD and GBP.
And next week the Euro looks much the same as the past 2 weeks....Choppy
The best trades on the Euro look like shorting the 5-day high and holding.
Daily Reports out on Monday after 11am
