26th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

I had two probability patterns this week on currencies....

Short the 5-day highs on Monday with the expectation that any down trend would continue from Tuesday.

Trade longs on Wednesday using the HOOK patterns with the expectation price would continue higher into Friday.

Both patterns started well but both failed the follow through.

Therefore there are no probability patterns for the next two days and into the close of the month.



AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Day-trading:- Below the Weekly 50% level but above the 5-day 50% level...conflicting patterns


Trade on the side of the blue 3-day filter...


Either AUD moves back above the Weekly 50% level and continues towards Thursday's highs, as it tries to rotate back towards the March 50% level.


Bearish pattern is a failure of the Weekly 50% level and break below the 5-day 50% level.


Euro Weekly and Daily


Weekly HOOK failure and below the 5-day 50% level.


Trade on the side of the 3-day blue filter & 5-day 50%.

No probability pattern but any weakness can continue down towards the 5-day lows.


GBP Weekly and Daily

GBP 5-day low support on Wednesday could see a swing towards the 5-day 50% level on Thursday :- resistance.

Below Wednesday's lows and price is pushing down into Thursday's lows.

Random support.