Expectation that the AUD was going to down into February's low hasn't played out, with the Weekly close above the Monthly 50% level.
If the double Monthly low pattern had played out into February's low then I would begin to look for a move up towards the Quarterly 50% level.
At this stage I'm going to treat AUD based on the Weekly highs next week:- resistance
And for any higher move occur, I would use the Monthly 50% level as support.
Therefore next week our view is for price to come back down into the Monthly 50% level from resistance, until proven wrong
AUD 3-day pattern
Last week there were 3 high probability patterns based on the higher timeframe trend and text-book patterns
Tuesday's up move with the break of the 3-day filter and heading higher:- exit on higher daily close
Wednesday's reversal down from the 3-day filter.
This pattern is your holding set-up:- Monthly and Weekly trend down and reversing from the 3-day high filter. Even though price didn't continue down this week, that was a 'holding' set-up with the expectation of lower prices.
Thursday's:- Day trading set-up.
A bounce off the 5-day 50% level, but only confirmed with a move back above the 3-day filter @ 64.61 heading back towards Thursday's highs
Friday's rally , wasn't a trading set-up, simply because of higher timeframe dynamics.
There weren' t any Daily HOOK patterns over the higher timeframe 50% levels, unlike GBP.
In fact is was short set-up because of the higher timeframe set-up, which mirrored Wednesday's reversal down.
But we would have known that the trade was failing simply because price was above the 3-day filter. Euro Monthly and Weekly
Expectation that the Euro is heading down into February's lows, and at this stage there isn't anything to disapprove this won't happen.
Next Week:- Weekly 50% level the trend.
If trading above, then the expectation is price is heading towards the Weekly highs.
I would say only 2 higher probability trading set-ups last week.
Tuesday's 3-day filter breakout and rally into the close.
Wednesday's reversal down from the Weekly 50% level, but the trade could only be confirmed with the break of the 5-day 50% level.
The rest of the week was to manage the trend based on the 5-day 50% level.
Friday's UP move wasn't part of any set-up.
Expectation of lower prices in February.
This week saw a Weekly Hook pattern on Tuesday and continuation higher into Friday.
It was the only currency that had a 'holding' BUY set-up.
AUD had a BUY set-up on Tuesday and Thursday, whereas the Euro only had 1:- Tuesday.
Next Week:- Weekly highs resistance with an expectation of a push back down, into the February lows.
Price could also reverse back down from the monthly 50% level, but i'll have a look in the daily report on Monday for any set-ups.
It obvious that a break above the Weekly highs and above the Monthly 50% level the potential to move back towards the Quarterly 50% level is a high possibility. But I would only make that conclusion after a double bottom , not based on this current price action.
Monday probability started with a thrust pattern down from the Weekly 50% level.
Traders didn't have to wait until the 5-day 50% level, because price was also coming down from the 3-day filter.
Tuesday:- Even though both the AUD and Euro had BUY set-ups (3-day filter breaks), GBP didn't. The trend or trade had to be manage by the 5-day 50% level.
All the rest of the set-ups were mainly BUYs, simply because of Tuesday's HOOK pattern over the Weekly 50% level up into a higher Friday close.