Weekly Forex AUD, EUR, 30 MAY 2009

I would have preferred text book set-ups to trade the moves upwards:- BUY MAY support, but it's not always the case.

Once the MAY high breakouts occurred last week the view was to continue with the break and move into the June highs.

Think of the MAY high breakout like a 5-day high break:- price moves from the break and hits the new 5-day high and stalls, with the potential that price can reverse down into the 5-day 50% level.

But that reversal down into the Monthly 50% level has more chance happening in July than June, simply because MAY high breakout can support price.

I expect the June high to stall price from rising much further, but a larger reversal down might take a number of weeks to play out.

For traders we simply look for and trade high probability patterns.


AUD Monthly and Weekly

Heading higher into June highs after the breakout of MAY highs.

Looking for a high probability pattern to trade longs didn't play out was hoped for when you compared the Euro and NYMEX OIL.

Those two moved down into the 5-day lows which matched the MAY high breakouts, providing the ideal set-ups.

Whereas AUD didn't.

AUD 5-day pattern

Being a higher Weekly open last week there was an expectation of a 2-day reversal pattern.

The 3-day filter provided robust set-ups to take pips out of the range, as this was part of the view.

The rest of the Week wasn't even on Friday because the lack of moving down into support earlier in the Week.

Next Week:-

Friday high breakout, expectation a push up into the highs on Monday and a move back down over 2-days to retest Friday's breakout.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Everthing about the euro last week was precise and played out withtext book patterns, even Friday's higher close

Euro 5-day pattern

Ideal resistance zones played out all Week until Thursday's 5-day lows, which matched the MAY high break.

And once again, the Red 3-day filter gave clarity of the trend and Weekly close, by simply waiting for the cross-over on Friday.

If that's one pattern you have to wait for all week to happen, then wait until the 3-day filter breaks.



Note:- I've dropped the GBP/USD from all future reports, as there are enough opportunites to trade in AUD & Euro