31 October 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

USD Index

Work out what the S&P 500 is going to do and you can often do the opposite in Currencies.

S&P 500 hasn't closed below the 3-week lows and the USD hasn't closed above the 3-week highs, therefore November can continue to consolidate and move.

Based on Friday's close and October, it's hard to have a concrete conclusion that the dollar will continue to rise and the S&P continue down.

AUD monthly and Weekly

October closes above Ocrober highs, and November will be opening around the Weekly 50% level and a lower weekly open, which could see the AUD back around the Weekly highs by Friday.

Monday opens below support, and there could be another weekly timeframe that trends down.

Based on current price action the latter isn't a probability.

monday's 5-day patterns will give a much clearer view on direction next week.

Euro and Weekly

3-week low support would need to be above the Weekly 50% level can see a swing up towards the weekly highs again.

Would nned to see a weekly HOOK pattern ( Daily close above the weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level on the same day)

Breaks 3-week lows can see the Euro trend down all week.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

As per my view a couple of weeks ago, if GBP can consolidate above the monthly 50% level it is more likely to continue higher next month.

Support 1.6398

target Weekly highs and November highs

don't trade longs below 1.6282

30th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and monthly


Currencies follow the US Equity markets closely, and as I expected US markets to continue down and not up, I wasn't expecting Currencies to continue higher on Thursday.

I was bearish on the AUD below the Weekly 50% level, but no follow through from .9040, instead price has moved back into the previous 3-day cycle breaout @ 92.00

Once again currencies will follow Index markets closely on Friday (read US recap Report)

Either Friday opens higher and swings down from 92 cents and into a lower close...

Or Friday continues to rally up from the 50% level and completes another R85 point rise upwards.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro far more orderly.Weekly 50% level is the critical level on friday:- either higher daily open and Sell down from the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level (min 85 points back down into the pink)

or price continues higher, back towards the previous 3-day breakout @ 1.4944 and higher (3-day cycle high)

No probability on direction on Friday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral

precise top on Wednesday matching spiral and 5-day 50% level has resulted in the continuation down into the Weekly 50% level and a close below.

At this stage whilst price is below, AUD's line of least resistance is down into the Weekly lows

resistance 90.40

Ideally I would like another R85 rise on Thursday during GMT hours...

But Thursdaycan continue to trend down without a swing because of the breakout of the 5-day lows.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is less room to move on the euro on the downside because of the Weekly lows.

resistance the Weekly 50% levl.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day patterns (spiral)

Yesterday's view was for currencies to move into the 5-day 50% level and continue down because of the same expectation in US equity markets.

With the Dollar Index now above the 5-week 50% level, there is an expectation that currencies should continue to rotate downward on Wednesday.

Resistance:- R85 high and spiral filter levels @ 92.12

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro breaking the Weekly 50% level but trading around 5-day support.

R85 high will be the trend guide.

if price is going down it should reject from this level, as it matches the Weekly 50% level.

If price is rising above 1.4856 and above the Weekly 50% level, then I wouldn't be trying to pick shorts on Wednesday (until next pink filter match)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

I'm basing my total view on currencies based on the price action in US equity markets.

If Tuesday follows SET-UP A then currencies will drop considerably on Tuesday and over the next few days.

That means the 3-day filters and 5-day 50% levels are the trend guides on Tuesday:- resistance.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

The same applies on the Euro:- currently supported around the 5-week 50% level, and could remain so during the day, but during US timezone if below the weekly 50% level...

price is heading down into the 3-week lows.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

looking for pullbacks into the Weekly 50% levels...

however, at this stage trading around support levels and above the 50% level doesn't provide the ideal set-up.

Random resistance 9243-64

Euro Weekly and spiral filter

Same expectation of a move down into the weekly 50% level ,but not the ideal set-up to trade shorts.

Random resistance 1.5026

24th October 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

USD Index

USD dollar index is trading around the double monthly lows in October, and if the S&P decides to to drop the USD will rise.

First sign on any reversal is price trading above the Weekly 50% level.

Short-term will be next week rising up from the 5-day 50% level towards the Weekly 50%



AUD Monthly and Weekly

If any selling occurs in the AUD it will begin from the 5-day 50% level with the potential to move back down into the Weekly 50% level.

At this stage the Weekly 50% level is going to be a random support zone.

Below the Weekly 50% level and it's down into the 3-week lows.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Exact same pattern expectation on the Euro as the AUD.

There is nothing to suggest the Euro will reverse down, but early next week needs to be defined by the 5-day 50% levels

GBP Monthly and Weekly

As per Previous Weekly report..." the 3-month 50% level support and trend guides next week, and the best set-up on GBP would be to actually see GBP close out October and then use the Monthly balance point as support and trade upwards from November"

Last week saw early support and rise upwards, and now the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide for next week.

Either GBP finds support and more sideways rotation until the end of the month and November, or price breaks the Weekly 50% level and continues down into the 3-week lows.

23 October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Push down into the 50% level on Thursday, and with price trading above the spiral filter levels this favours a move towards the highs.

Whilst above 9262 upside target is the R85 bar & Weekly highs (9338)

Euro Weekly and spiral filter

50% level support but trading below the spiral filter (pink)

either Friday continues to consolidate and move in 85 point rotations using the Weekly highs as resistance

or price continues to move upwards and follow the 5-day pattern higher towards 1.5088

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral filter

Based on the price action in the filter, price is pushing down into the 50% level.

Around the 50% level is a random pattern:-

either price is supported, or it follows the move down into the lows and support



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

50% level random support

but as part of the Weekly high resistance and spiral top, I can't discount a pink to pink move down into the 3-day lows @ 1.4828

21st October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Currencies moving in a 5-day pattern rotation with an upward bias until the end of the week.

There's no high probability set-ups other than using the levels in the 5-day range and the spiral filters

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Even though the AUD isn't providing robust swing points, the Euro is.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

bias to continue higher, but at this stage it looks like more R85 rotating patterns


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro provided a nice set-up with the push down into the spiral low and 50% level.

Tuesday will start around the highs, and once again any higher moves would ideally begin around the R85 low for a push towards the Weekly highs.

Currency those highs are seen as resistance until the R85 range completes.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage currencies are seen as range trading between the Weekly 50% levels and the Weekly highs.

The first two days should be viewed as whether currencies will contrinue higher or pullback into support.

At this stage the spiral filter @ 9191 is the trend guide:-

At this stage it's viewed as a pullback and a pink to pink move down.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same set-up on the euro, trend guide will be the R85 top and pink filter @ 1.4934

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th October 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

AUD monthly and Weekly


AUD continues from the previous 3-Quarter breakout into the highs of the next Quarter.

There is a potential continuation up towards 95cents which is the Yearly pivot highs.

However, in the short-term I would treat AUD as range bound and supported (October highs)



Euro monthly and Weekly

Euro completes the breakout pattern from September into October.

There is a potential move towards the Quarterly highs @ 1.5152

However, treating Euro as range bound (October resistance) and using the Weekly 50% levels as support.

GBP Monthly & Weekly

I was surprised by GBP this week, simply because a 'precise' double low pattern didn't play out.

Didn't reach the 2nd monthly lows or the 3-week lows to get support, and now there is a Weekly close above the 3-month 50% level.

This is bullish, as price is trading above the 3-Quarter 50% level and there is a potential move towards the 3 Quarter highs @1.725.

However, because price has hit the 3-week highs and stalled, it's still early to tell whether GBP will continue higher, or next week actually drops back below (higher Weekly open)

In the short-term:-

5-day 50% level support and the 3-month 50% level support and trend guides next week

The best set-up on GBP would be to actually see GBP close out October and then use the Monthly balance point as support and trade upwards from November.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD continues to rise and will probably continue towards 95-cents and the Yearly pivot high in the 4th Quarter.

Yesterday continued to rise into the next spiral filter without any short-term reversal around .9191.

Random resistance around the highs on Friday

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern


Spiral filter top on Thursday matching October highs and a reversal back down into the 5-day 50% level (& Weekly highs).

Based on this pattern looks like Euro will be moving upwards on Friday.

Random resistance @ 1.5007, but it can still continue to move up another pink to pink move (extra 85 pip range)

Friday support @ 1.4910

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD continues upwards and into the Weekly highs.

Because most currencies are now trading around their 3-month highs patterns, it should be based on using the spiral filter to confirm or validate any continuation of trends or reversal of trends.

Next pink filter @ 9192


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

October high completion and next pink filter and 'spiral' top @ 1.4955

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD remain range bound, and could remain range bound for the rest of this week.

Resistance Weekly highs.

Once again if the R85 close below the filters (unlike Monday) I would view that as part of a reversal towards the 3-day lows.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

My ideal pattern of moving down into the R85 low and then heading higher didn't play out.

Price has completed the Weekly highs.

I won't have a view on the euro until next week, because at this stage the euro can remain range bound until Friday or it can continue to push up towards the October highs.

That latter move can happen when the Weekly highs sihft higher next week.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral filter

Yesterday was an each way bet using the October highs as a guide along with the R85 close below the filter support levels with the view that price would push down.

Instead the R85 reversed back upwards and looks to be pushing higher on Tuesday, whilst above 9048



Euro Weekly and Spiral filter

Bias to continue higher, ideally the most robust pattern would be to see the R85 close down and then use the R85 spiral low as a trend guide on any potential higher moves on Tuesday.

From 4pm EST onwards.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral filter

This week is about whether the AUD continues up into the Weekly highs or reverses down into the Weekly 50% level, and it will be based on the October highs @ 9048

higher Weekly open can follow SET-UP A, but it will need a R85 pip close below intra-day support.

Unless there is a R85 pip close below the current intra-day support levels, the bias is to continue higher.




Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Normally I would look for price is come back into the Weekly 50% level support levels, but with the spiral filter, Monday can push higher.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th October 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD has completed the move into October highs and the will start around resistance and a higher Weekly open.

Because Friday didn't reach the 5-day highs, there could be a push upwards early in the week, but if looking for 'short' trading patterns price needs to be trading below the October highs and below the 5-day 50% level.



Euro Monthly and Weekly

September high breakout should continue up towards the October highs.

Normally a 3-month high breakout will continue higher based on each Quarterly timeframe, because the 3-month cycle breakout occured in the last month of the Quarter, then expectaton is that price can only last 1 month:- from 1 quarter into the next Quarter.

GBP Monthly

Following the 2nd month pattern down into October support.

9th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD completes the move into the October highs. At this stage the move into the 3-month highs has completed in the first 4 days.

Next pattern will be after this week ends and next Weeky begins (weekly report out tomorrow)

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trading around the Weekly highs with the expectation that price will complete the October highs.

Friday will be simply defined by the red filter.

Above and it's following the 5-day pattern and higher friday close.

Below it's a random pattern, but below the 5-day 50% level and it's a pullback into next week's 50% levels.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD remains above the previous 5-day high break, with the expectation that price is heading towards the October highs.

Thursday's highs random resistance.

If US index markets reverse down on Thursday, then it will put pressure on currencies during the US timezone.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro reversed down once below the 3-day filter.

I wasn't expecting this to happen because of Wednesday's 5-day high break, but I was expecting a 2-day reversal back down because of the chance in the 3-day cycle on Tuesday.

At this stage I'm not sure if Euro will remain above the 5-day 50% level, or the 2nd day reversal continues back down into the 3-day cycle low (white)

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

2-day UP move completed from the Weekly open, but there is a 5-day high breakout that should see another 84 pip up move complete on Wednesday.

Expectation is a move towards the October highs, but the 5-day highs on Wednesday are a random resistance zone.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro has followed the same pattern and expectation is that price is heading towards the October highs.

There is a 5-day high breakout on Tuesday, so price should push up on Wednesday.

The 3-day filter is the trend Guide.

normally when the 3-day cycle breaks I would look for a 2-day stall or reversal and then continue higher later, however because of the 5-day high breakout, that might not happen on Wednesday.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT