1st December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Tuesday's trading is going to be defined by the single Monthly balance point(Red).

Once again, the spiral filter channels are providing an ideal set-up to trade longs.

If price test the balance point and is once again trading around these highs, i'm sure the AUD will continue to move higher on Tuesday

Euro Weekly and spiral filter

Them monthly balance point is lower, but based on the spiral filter Tuesday favours rising upwards.

As long as it's above the pink filter Tuesday should continue into the next pink filter 2x85 bars.

if price is below then it's coming down into the monthly balance point and 5-week 50% level (brown) @ 1.4919

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30 November 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral filter

AUD open above the Weekly 50% level, which has an upward bias.

However, based on the spiral filter it doesn't leave much upward room unless price is trading above 91.90

below the pink filter and dialy rotation down into the 50% level @ 9050

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Whilst above the 50% level & pink, the bias is to continue upwards 2x85 bars, towards the channel highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28 November 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

USD Index Yearly and Monthly

1 monthly left in 2009 and we need to keep in mind that the USD index is either going to continue down into the Yearly lows and December lows....

or Swing back upwards and move towards the Yearly 50% level in 2010.

That up mvoe is going to be dependant on the break of the 3-week highs and also the December 50% level.

I do favour that happening because I'm expecting the US equity markets to reverse down from these highs, as per US Index Weekly report

AUD monthly and Weekly

If that's the case we need to be focusing on shorting currencies using the levels in the market.

December starts on Tuesday but the Weekly timeframe won't until the following week, so there is still a possibility that next week can move upwards or remain in a sideways pattern.

Notice how each move begins around the red 50% level at the start of the month, but that won't be until the following week, and the 5-day therefater ends up a trending week.

Short-term:- with Monday opening below the Weekly 50% level I have to favour a push down (random pattern)

Any pullbacks are towards the December lows.

Monthly and Weekly

short-term the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide @ 1.4977.

any break of the 3-week lows and price is pulling back into the December lows @ 1.4417

GBP Monthly and Weekly

once again the best set-up on GBP will be the week after using the red monthly balance point as the trend guide.

Short-term:- weekly 50% level the trend guide.

27 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Coming into the end of the month and Friday should be about whether Currencies are going to be rotating back down into the monthly balance points or remain in a tight 5-day pattern around the Weekly 50% levels.

Based on the 5-day pattern, the AUD can rotate upwards....

But because of the pink filter and also the Weekly 50% level, trading below those can send the AUD into a much lower close on Friday.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern...

It's the same pattern for the Euro....

more rotation upwards using the 50% levels in the 5-day pattern

or a failure at the Weekly highs on Friday @ 1.5056 and a rotation down into the Weekly 50% levels

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD most likely to continue towards the november highs by Friday.

Whilst price is above the pink filter, the expectation is another 2x85 point rise higher.

Below the pink filter:- and price is back into the 5-day 50% level.

This is because price has closed above the 3-day cycle, which might see a 1-2 day reversal

Euro monthly and Spiral

Euro completes the move into the 4th Quarter highs.

I did have the Weekly highs as resistance @ 1.5050, with matching pink filter @ 1.5070, but this has seen the euro continue upwards into the channel highs.

For the next 2 -days should be about whether the Euro continues to trend in a higher Weekly close on Friday making double R85 moves upwards (pink to pink)

Or 1.5152 is a resistance level and price rotates back down into the 50% level @ 1.4980.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

no probability pattern on Wednesday...

trade on the side of the pink filter

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro moved down into the support levels on Tuesday providing a R85 support reversal and price should continue towards the channel highs.

Weekly highs random resistance.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Lower Weekly open and a move back into the 3-day cycle highs.

At this stage I'm favouring a 2nd day UP move to close above the 3-day cycle highs, but the price action in the 5-day pattern doesn't help.

no probability pattern on Tuesday.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday's early rise formed a higher HOOK pattern that once above the 50% level favoured a move higher. Helped by the lower weekly open and rising up from the Weekly 50% level support.

If the Euro is going to go higher, then the most robust pattern would be to see price come down into an R85 low and use the 50% level as support to trade a 2nd day UP move towards the Weekly highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD weekly and 5-day pattern( spiral filter)

Below Weekly 50% level and below pink filter and AUD is heading down...

Above pink filter and price is moving into the 50% level and spiral top (R85 range)

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

opening right on the Weekly 50% level and pink filter....

Therefore an each way bet in early trading on Monday @ 1.4845

If Euro is going to go down, then the R85 spiral top below the 50% level @ would provide an ideal set-up @ 1.4889

Note:- that's not a high probablility short set-up:- because Monday is a lower Weekly open and therefore rising up from a lower Weekly open using the Weekly 50% level support, which often can lead to a 2-day rise.

Same pattern as last Monday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21 November 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

USD Dollar Index

As pointed out last week, the USD index likes to rotate back towards the monthly 50% levels as it nears the end of the month

If Friday had closed above the Weekly 50% level, then I would favour a move back towards the November 50% levels.

Because of Friday's price action, the USD index can begin the week with a push back down.

We are coming into the end of the trading year, and the thing we need to keep in mind is whether the price is going to continue with the same trend in 2010, or actually rotate back towards the Yearly 50% levels for 2010.

If the trend is going to continue down then price will push back down from the December 50% levels.

If the yearly 50% level reversals are going to happen, then price will be above the December 50% levels and continue towards 80+

AUD monthly and Weekly

Because of the USD index, i'm not sure whether the AUD has a lower weekly open and rises back upwards from the Weekly 50% level over the first 2-days.

Or Monday opens below the Weekly 50% level and continues with the down move, as part of the 4th Quarter highs and price is rotating towards the 2010 50% levels at lower prices.

At this stage I have to treat AUD based on the Weekly 50% level, along with the 5-day 50% levels.

And I'd keep an eye on the price action in the S&P 500 over the first 2-days.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Sadly Euro didn't read the Weekly highs last week, and at this stage i'm not sure whether price is going to rise on monday and complete the move upwards, or continue down into the 3-week lows.

If monday is trading and closing below 1.4787, then this will put more pressure on the Euro for the rest of the week:- random pattern into a lower friday close.

GBP monthly and Weekly

larger timeframe support levels at lower prices, but those levels will need to be confirmed by a Friday close above those levels. (weekly lows)

Once again i'm not sure whether Monday will swing upwards:- 2-day back towards the 3-day cycle highs....

or price continues down below the Weekly 50% level and follows the last week reversal pattern back towards the monthly 50% levels.

20 November 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday's price action was bullish right until there was the R85 close below 92.66

Once that occurred the minimum move down was going to be 85 pips.

Friday's trading is about whether AUD continues down whilst below the Weekly 50% level and 3-day cycle lows and heads back towards the 3-week lows

There is also a breakout of the 5-day lows from Thursday @ 92.25, which in theory should remain below this level

There is a 3-day cycle breakout, which can often swing upwards and move into a 2-day stall pattern, but Friday isn't a BUY day based on current price action.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro currently consolidating and swinging within the spiral filters.

Yesterday I was bullish, as Price was trading above the 50% level, but once price was trading below 1.4941 the bias was to continue down 85 pips.

At this stage, price can move towards the channel highs and form a higher pink filter @ 1.4997.

trend guide is 1.4889

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19 November 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern and spiral filter

Yesterday I was looking for 5-day 50% level 41 pip resistance, which we got.

Then the AUD moved up and back down, retesting the 50% level @ 92.66 in the spiral filter.

Once again there could be resistance around the 5-day 50% level on Thursday, which might or might not lead to a large move down. (41 pips).

If the R85 closes below 92.66, this can put more selling pressure on the AUD.

After Wednesday's price action and support @ 92.66, I would also keep an eye on price trading above the 5-day 50% level during GMT trading..

As this can see a higher Weekly close near the November highs.

Euro Weekly, 5-day pattern and Spiral filter

A lot of resistance below the 5-day 50% level yesterday during Asian trading hours, but not a complete 41 pip reversal.

GMT hours has seen Weekly 50% level support on Wednesday, and if the Euro is going to continue higher on Thursday, then price should remain above 1.4941 and continue towards the Weekly highs.

If price is below 1.4941 and also the pink filter, then there is a bias to move down 2x 85 pips.

All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18 November 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

USD Dollar index



USD dollar index has November low support and now trading above the 5-day 50% level.



The more this rises the more pressure it's going to put on currencies, and as pointed out in the weekly report, there is a pattern that often see the last week of the month rotate back towards the monthly 50% level.



However, the Weekly 50% level is the key, as price can easily move back below the 5-day 50% level on Wednesday because of Tuesday's failure to close above.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday I wasn't bearish because of the price patterns in the market and I was hoping to see AUD hit the Weekly highs once again.

Looking at the price action AUD can continue higher, but around the spiral filter @ 93.20-27 might see a 4 hour resistance pattern that pushes the SPI back down 41 pips until GMT/USD time zone.

If price reverses down 85 pips and is trading below 92.66 that might see more selling on the AUD towards the Weekly 50% level and more.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro is currently supported around higher timeframe 50% levels, but trading below the spiral filter 50% level and also the spiral high.

Therefore there are conflicting patterns.

The trend guide is simply going to be defined by 1.4892.

if it's a spiral high and pushing downward and the USD index is rising, then Euro can begin to break key levels on Wednesday.

Personally I would have preferred AUD and Euro hitting the Weekly highs this week and using those upper levels as resistance.

Therefore at best these R85 highs in both the AUD and euro are only seen as 4 hour resistance and 41 pips resistance ,which may or may not lead to larger trend reversals.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral pattern

Weekly highs resistance....

No pattern set-up for Tuesday.

pink filter trend guide @ 92.94 (random support)

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on Monday's trading and 50% level support, there is a bias to continue higher on Tuesday.

Trend guide 1.4974

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bias is to continue higher, however price is already trading around the spiral highs.

support as shown.

no probability pattern on Monday.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation of higher prices, but not from today's higher open.

Support as shown:- pink filter and 50%

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14 November 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

USD Index


Trading around support in November and as seen in the past, price likely to consolidate around these levels and even rotates upwards the closer it gets to the end of the month.

It will also start in the middle of the 5-day range, which is either going to see price down into the Weekly lows, or push upward for 2-days

AUD Monthly and Weekly

At this stage AUD looks like it's range bound around these highs, which could see a push up into the Weekly highs and November highs next week.

If USD index moves down into the Weekly lows and the AUD moves up into the Weekly highs, then I would begin to look for moves back down into the Weekly 50% level on the AUD, using the 3-day filters as levels to short-trade from.

A close below the 3-day lows and Weekly 50% level will put pressure on the AUD back down into the 3-week lows.

Euro monthly and Weekly

bias is to continue towards the highs...where Weekly highs and November highs are resistance.

This will complete the 3-month wave pattern upwards from the September high break

If Euro pushes down early next week because it's currently below the 5-day 50% level and hits the red monthly support levels (balance points), then we should look for Weekly HOOK patterns for a rise upwards into friday.

GBP monthly and Weekly

GBP is following the 3-week range and should be view as such. (Weekly 50% level support)

Stick to trading the 5-day patterns as it rotates up and down

13 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly highs resistance and reversal down into 3-day lows, and also trading below the 5-day 50% levels.

Bearish pattern will need to see the 5-day 50% level on Friday reject the AUD down into Friday's lows and send the AUD in the Weekly 50% level.

Friday's 5-day lows are important, because if the S&P 500 begins to rise upwards on Friday, then could end up higher.

Therefore two patterns:- early rise into resistance and a push down into Friday's lows, if price breaks then it's going lower.

If AUD is still supported around Friday's lows during US timezone, then price can close around the 5-day 50% level or higher.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern...

Sadly on my part the Weekly highs didn't reach on the Euro.

Same expectation on the Euro:- 5-day 50% level resistance.

However, if it's not breaking Friday's 5-day lows and the S&P 500 moves up on Friday, then the Euro can break the 5-day 50% level and close higher:- Weekly 50% level support.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral filters

Weekly highs resistance with an expectation of a pullback into the Weekly 50% levels.

However, based on the price action in the S&P 500, this pullback might not happen until Friday at the earliest.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Thursday could end up another consolidating trading day, and any reversals down into support can align with the 5-day highs and matching weekly highs on Friday.

Weekly highs resistance

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD and Euro Weekly

Resistance Weekly highs

10 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD continued up, but not from my preferred pattern of the Weekly 50% level.

However, once above the pink filter it was going to follow the price action of the S&P 500.

At this stage the bias is to continue higher....

Tuesday's short-term pattern should be defined by the pink filter @ 93.13

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Tuesday might see resistance around the weekly highs, which also match the spiral high (top) @ 1.5063...

however, there is a bias to continue higher, and because price is above the pink filter @ 1.4988, price can follow a double r85 range upwards.

Eventually there is going to be a short-term reversal down this week, and if it's going to follow a similar pattern as the S&P 500, that reversal down might be from a higher Wednesday close and Thursday reverses back down into the Weekly 50% levels.

At this stage i'm treating any resistance levels as minor intra-day resistance levels over a 4 hour period until Thursday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral filter

Bullish on currencies to start the week off, but ideally I would like to see AUD come down from the pink spiral and back into the 50% level.

This is based on the change of the 3-day cycle and expectation of a 1-day reversal into support.

however, above 92 cents and it's pushing higher.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bullish on euro, as long as it remains above the weekly 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7 November 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

AUD monthly and Weekly

Support and rising up towards November highs.

Weekly 50% level support, after Friday's 3-day cycle change over.


Euro monthly & Weekly

As long as price is above the Weekly 50% level next week price is heading towards the November highs & (Weekly highs).

3-day cycle change over and 2-day stall should be pushed upwards on Monday and heading higher

GBP Monthly & Weekly

Trend up towards November highs.

There are the 3-week highs that might resist price, but a Daily close above 1.6741 sohuld continue to move upwards for the rest of the week.

6 November 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD moved down into support in the 5-day pattern, but I would have expected more upside on Thursday and followed the breakout of the 3-day cycle

At this stage the bias is to continue higher ...pink filter is the trend guide.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

euro looks well supported, but it will depend on how the S&P responds to it's own change of the 3-day cycle.

I would normally look for a reversal pattern the day after, and if that is the case it might put pressure on Currencies on friday (US time zones) to close back around their Weekly 50% levels and support, and the continue higher next week.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT