1st Jan 2011, USD, AUD, EUR, Weekly

USD Index:- Primary and Secondary cycles

The end of the 2010 Primary cycle, and we begin a new Primary cycle for 2011 in a bearish trend.

USD index is currently below the 2011 50% level, therefore the overall trend bias is to move lower, with minor intermediate and lesser cycles providing short-term counter-trend moves from support levels.

Euro Yearly and monthly

The euro will begin 2011 above the Primary and Secondary 50% levels...

therefore the trend bias is up..

first target is the 3-year 50% level, and above that it's the 3-Quarterly highs.

To confirm further gains towards the highs, price needs a weekly close above the January 50% level and single monthly high @ 1.3544.

if for some reason there's weakness in the first Quarter for 2011, then support levels are based on the 3-Quarterly 50% 1.3180 (single monthly lows @ 1.3090)

if the euro moves down into those levels and find support, then it could provide a THRUST pattern upwards for the rest of the Quarter.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Because there is a breakout of Friday's highs, I don't have an expectation that next week will begin with a 2-day reversal pattern...

Next week is simply defined by the weekly level @ 1.3375

AUD Yearly and monthly

Trading above the 2010 highs @ 97.86 should continue to push up towards the 2011 highs @ 1.0612

a number of resistance levels in 2011 :- 1.0612 & then the .618 of the Yearly range @ 1.0871

The Primary cycle is a long time, therefore we continue to focus on the lesser timeframes (Monthly and Weekly), whilst looking for trading set-ups using the 5-day range and the Weekly levels.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

My view was for the AUD to continue higher in the first Quarter for 2011, with the most robust setting using the 3 week lows as support (late December or early January)

In the short-term, the trend remains up, as long as price remains above the Weekly level @ 1.0132.

There is a breakout of Friday's highs, which should continue to push up towards the Weekly highs:- break and extend pattern from last week's highs @ 1.0111

Trend guide:- 1.0208, 1.0222 on Monday

If below the Weekly level there is still the possibility that price moves down and finds support at those 3-week lows @ 98.93

My preferred pattern would be price coming down from next week's highs into the Weekly lows first before the January highs have been reached @ 10367

If the January highs @ are reached first without moving down into the Weekly lows, then the support levels will differ later in the January, as they won't be as valid.

January's highs completes the 2nd month wave pattern from the December 50% level.

31 DEC 2010, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

The Euro has moved back towards the December 50% level @ 1.3307.

This could stall the euro from rising upwards, but there is a possibility that the euro continues towards the January 50% level.

However, for Friday the trend guide is brown filter.

Support as shown around the 5-day 50% level.

above the brown filter and it continues towards Friday's highs.

If the euro continues towards the friday highs, those highs will then determine if next week begins with a 2-day reversal pattern that can lead to far more downside (below the Yearly 50% level)

or as we have seen many times in currencies....

the following week continues to trend upwards, as illustrated in the book.



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

December highs reached precisely @ 1.0197... and that completes the entire 4th Quarter pattern.

My expectation continues to be, there will be higher highs in 2011 ;- minimum
move (January highs)

Why?

AUD is currently trading above the 2010 highs @ 97.86, therefore it is trying to extend up towards the 2011 highs.

Secondly, AUD tested the December 50% level, therefore there's an expectation that the trend is following a 2-month wave pattern into higher highs. (January)

However, once these December highs have been reached the trailing Weekly
levels come into play from next week.

If there's any weakness in the short term, then the next long set-up
would be based using the Weekly lows.

If that happens, this can then provide the next support level for a
move towards higher highs in 2011 later in January.

Today:- 5-day 50% level support, which matches the Weekly highs @ 1.0111

I can't be bullish on AUD in the short-term with the market coming down from the December highs and trading below the daily channels.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30 DEC 2010, EUR, AUD, Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD should complete the December highs matched with Thursday's highs.

Trailing support @ 1.0148



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

My view was for the Euro to continue down in the first 12 hours yesterday, but instead it consolidated into the next 12 hours, and then continued upwards.

Trend guide once again the white channels...

Based on the current price action it looks like moving towards Thursday's highs, and could be moving back towards the January 50% level, next week.

Trailing support the 5-day 50% level (brown filter)

29 DEC 2010, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

After yesterday's spike up into the Weekly 50% level and reversal back below the Weekly level...it now looks like moving down into Wednesday's lows using 1.3117-9 as the trend guide.

if for some reason the Euro is above those levels, then it's a minor swing back towards the 5-day 50% level and brown filter

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Continues to look like it is moving towards the December highs.

Trend guide @ 1.0098

random resistance @ 1.0134 .

Note:- AUD has already reached the Weekly highs, therefore below 1.0098 could see intra-day weakness

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28 DEC2010, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Quick turn around with the euro back above the weekly level, and with a trend bias to swing back towards the Weekly 50% level.

however, for the first 12 hours my view is for the Euro to remain range bound between the trailing support levels (brown filter) and Tuesday's highs

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend bias is to continue towards the Weekly and December highs.

I would use the brown filter as a trend guide on Tuesday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27 DEC2010, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Trend bias is down whilst below 1.3117

however, there is random support around 1.3085 during the first 12 hours.


AUD Weekly 5-day pattern

short-term bearish pattern whilst below 1.0034, with a trend bias down towards the Weekly 50% level @ .9917.

however, random support @ 1.0006 during the first 12 hours

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25 DEC2010, USD, AUD, EUR, Weekly

USD Index Quarterly and Monthly

We are coming into the end of 2010 and the start of a new Primary cycle that aligns with the Yearly 50% level in 2011.

Basically the next trend will be pushed away from this level, start from the weekly after next.

At this stage we don't know exactly which direction it will go, and which opposite direction currencies will go.

Euro Quarterly and Weekly

If I was a betting man I would say the Euro will continue lower, as it follows the 2nd wave pattern into lower lows for 2011.

therefore over the next 5-days we need to keep an eye on how the Euro reponds to the Weekly levels, and if there's another tight 5-day trading range keeping it below those higher timeframe 50% levels

AUD monthly and Weekly

At this stage my view is that the AUD will try and push up towards next year's 2011 highs...

and in the short-term continue to trend towards the December highs next week.

24th December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

Euro continues to remain choppy within the intr-day channels, whilst being supported above the Weekly level

There's no probability pattern for today's trading.


5-day 50% level is creeping lower and should be today's trend guide



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

My view on the AUD is to continue higher in December

Trend guide from 11am today is 1.0030

don't trade longs below that level after the Weekly highs have already
been reached.

Merry Christmas!

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro remains supported around the Weekly level, but choppy within the 5-day range.

There is 2nd support during the 2nd 12 hour period, which often pushes the next 12 period upwards.

Trend guide brown filter @ 1.3114





AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD continues to trend upwards using the trailing support levels within the daily range.

Trend guide @ 9991

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage I would continue to concentrate on using the levels in the daily range, as the Euro doesn't look like it going to move upwards.

Yesterday's rise up into the 5-day 50% level and reversal down during the 2nd 12 hour perios looks to be moving down into Wednesday's lows

Whilst Wednesday remains below 1.3109 trend bias is down into the daily lows.




AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Tuesday's price action should continue to trend upwards and hopefully follow a move towards the December highs over the next few days.

however, the only problem has been Tuesday's failure to breakout of the 5-day range.

Wednesday:- brown filter the trend guide @ 9977 approx

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro remains weak and heading lower, as per weekly report.

Random support/trend guide 1.3089

no ideal set-up in the daily range.

Whilst below the brown filter the trend bias is to continue down into Tuesday's lows

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

I continue to be bullish on the AUD for the rest of December.

My ideal set-up on Monday was to test 2nd support (blue channel) in the following 12 hours, but that didn't play out as the up move began earlier.

As this stage the trend bias and support is based on the white levels @ 9915 then 9923

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro trend is down and looks to be heading towards support levels, as described in the weekly report.

however, the Euro could continue to consolidate within the 5-day range coming into the end of the end.

If it's the latter, then the next 12 hour range would need to be trading above the brown filter.

no probability pattern for Monday





AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per weekly report, my view is that the AUD will follow and orderly pattern upwards using the Weekly 50% level as support.

The first sign will be price trading above the 5-day 50% level @ .9911

or we keep an eye on the blue channel low during the next 12 hour period for support, as it dynamically rises up from currently low @ .9847

18 DEC2010, USD, AUD, EUR,GBP Weekly

USD Index

looks to be range trading between the levels in December, and with a possible move up towards the Quarterly 50% level @ 81.96


AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD is either going to remain choppy over the next 2-weeks until the end of the year...

or follow an orderly pattern upwards after testing the 1st 3-week highs...

and then continuing towards the December highs using the Weekly 50% level as support and a trend guide for the next 2-weeks


Euro monthly and Weekly

The euro is trading below a number of important higher timeframe 50% level (3-Quarterly and 3-month 50% levels).

current price action suggests a move down into December's lows @ 1.2960- 1.2931.

I can get bullish on Euro unless it breaks out of the 3-weeks


GBP Monthly and Weekly

currently holding some support around the December level.

It may follow a doubly Weekly lows pattern into next week's lows.

I'd would still treat the weekly 50% level and December 50% level as resistance until the end of the month.

17th December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

based on the current trends and where price is trading on Friday...using 1.3275 as a trend guide.

my view is that it can push price back down during this 12 hour period and towards a lower Friday close.

I could be wrong if it begins trading above, as Friday can see a swing back towards the channel highs @ 1.3365, but that's not a high probability set-up


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same pattern with the 5-day 50% level and channel highs @ 9921 can push price back down during this 12 hour period.

first target 9886

16th December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

higher timeframe levels are driving the Euro lower, and based on current price action it looks like moving down into Thursday's lows (random support)

Trend guide:- 1.3270

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same view on the AUD:- down into Thursday's lows

Trend guide the brown filter @ 9884.

If the AUD is going to rise upwards, then the next 12 hour period might provide that if price is above the next brown filter.

15th December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

If the Euro is going to continue higher, then it's going to rise upwards from the 5-day 50% level and Wekly level @ 1.3325-30

However, the larger timeframe 50% levels as illustrated in the Weekly report, continue to resist the trend from rising higher :- 1.3415-1.3447


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern


Expectation that the AUD is continuing towards the December highs.

However, I'm not sure how much upside will occur during the next 12 hours, as the market dynamics in the Daily range and the Weekly highs doesn't provide an ideal set-up for more 'long' trades.

maybe things will change during the US timeframe zone.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day

current price action suggests more gains on Tuesday using the Weekly 50% level and the brown filter as support:- 1.3336

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

trend guide is simply based on the brown filter during the first 12 hours @ .9947.

I would think price will try and continue to move towards Tuesday's highs...

however, there are a number of weekly levels that may hinder that happening

13th December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

As per Weekly report the trend bias is down, as it's trading below higher timeframe 50% levels.

At this stage the Weekly and December 50% levels are seen as resistance levels.

Whilst Monday's 5-day 50% level is seen a resistance for the first 12 hours @ 1.3247-55


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

My view is that the AUD is trying to rise up towards higher highs in 2011, but as shown in the weekly report, there are a number of higher timeframe levels that are resisting the trend.

Based on the current price action, I would treat AUD as range bound between the blue channels (right chart), using the 50% levels as the trend guide

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11 DEC2010, USD, AUD, EUR,GBP Weekly

USD Index

There are no clues as this stage as to whether the USD index will continue higher...

or remain trading below the 2010 50% levels until the end of this month.

AUD Yearly and Weekly

Based on the Monthly levels in December my view is that AUD is heading higher.

however, when we look at the Primary and Secondary cycles, the current price action in trading around upper resistance levels, as shown in the left chart.

There is the potential move towards the 2011 highs the closer we come to the end of the month and start of January

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Currently trading below the 3-quarterly 50% level and also the December 50% levels.

unless next week closes above those levels...

The trend bias is down or more consolidation between the Weekly levels

GBP monthly and Weekly

GBP looks in a more robust position compared to the Euro, as it's trading above the 3-Quarterly 50% level (Yellow @ 1.5565)

At this stage next week's 50% level is a support zone for the trend to try and rise upwards

10th December 2010 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Normally Thursday's price action would continue to push upwards, especially when the first 12 hour timeframe breaks the 5-day 50% level...

However, as shown in the Weekly report, the Euro is trading below the 3-month 50% levels in December.

Based on current price action, there isn't a robust trade set-up for Friday


AUD Weekly and Daily range

looking for more strength in the AUD on Thursday, but it failed to continue upwards in the 2nd 12 hour timeframe.

My view is that the AUD is moving upwards, and the 5-day 50% level is the trend guide.

However, it won't surprise me to see AUD pushed downward on Friday to lower support levels if trading below the 50% levels.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

6th December 2010 USD, Euro, AUD, Daily

USD Monthly and Weekly

Is the USD index going to continue back towards the Weekly highs, with a first target the 3-day cycle highs @ 81.06

or is Wednesday's reversal and retest of last week's breakout of the 3-day cycle lows going to send the USD dollar index lower, whilst currencies rise????

I ask these questions because I don't know the answers

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Weekly level support @ 1. 3205, with the trend guide shown in the right chart.

for the Euro to move higher it will need to break the 5-day 50% level and also the channel high.

At this stage it's not a high probability it will do that, simply because the 5-day 50% level and blue channel high can send the Euro down in the 2nd 12 hours, as price is trading below the 3-month 50% level.

AUD Weekly and Daily

Similar pattern as the euro....

Weekly 50% level currently supporting price, and as per Weekly report my view is that the AUD is going higher....

Therefore the trend guide is 98.01

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT