1st MAY USD, Euro, GBP, AUD, Weekly

USD Index

There is still the expectation that the USD index is going to continue towards the MAY highs, which should continue to put pressure on currencies in early MAY.

As long as price remains above the MAY 50% level

Once price completes the MAY highs there are a number of higher timeframe resistance levels:- 3 month highs and 3-year 50% level

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Break and extend pattern complete from the January breakout into the April lows.

However, the last week reversal pattern upwards has limped back into the monthly 50% levels in MAY

At this stage the MAY 50% levels are seen as resistance, but that might change once the USD index reaches the MAY highs.

GBP monthly and Weekly

GBP has support around the Weekly lows, but what we need to keep an eye on is the Weekly 50% level next week and the MAY 50% level.

This is either going to set-up a rejection pattern downard into the MAY lows and a break of the 3-week lows will verify that.

An up move is a possibility, however I'm not bearish on the USD Index therefore my view is a push down using 1.5306 as resistance.

5-day 50% level @ 1.5295

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Trend guide the Weekly 50% level....

My view at the start of the 2nd Quarter was a move towards the 2nd Quarter highs @ 98 cents, but only if price moves down into the 3-month 50% levels first:- test support

That might happen early next week.

30th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I would have thought the Euro would have had more strength yesterday with higher timeframe support and a cross-over of the Yellow filter.

Currently below the 5-day 50% level, but it gives less reason to 'short-trade' the Euro whilst the current support levels are in place in April.

Those levels will move lower next week in MAY.

If above the 5-day 50% level then treat Friday as a higher daily close towards the 5-day highs.


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

With Thursday's price action and closing above the 3-week 50% level, the AUD looks to be moving towards a higher Friday close and then continue higher next week towards the MAY highs.

if Friday moves down and find support @ 92.74 and takes out 93.12....

Then my view is a move towards Friday's highs (Weekly highs) and a continuation upwards early next week.

29th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro hitting major support levels.....

Trend guide the Yellow filter and Weekly lows (1.3181)

Looking at the pattern I would try and pre-empt a move upwards and back towards the MAY 50% level.

However, there is still the possibility that Friday can close lower if there's another push downward (below 1.3181)



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD has 3-week low support, but it’s too early to tell whether AUD will continue upwards this week or remain in a 2-day sideways pattern until next week and then push down into the 3-month 50% level in MAY

If AUD had closed on the highs around .9274 then a higher daily open using the 3-week 50% level would provide a short-sell pattern back down towards the 5-day lows on Thursday


Currently there’s no probability pattern for Thursday.

Trend guide the 5-day 50% level @ 9227

28th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro completing the 3-month break and extend pattern from January's lows into April's lows.

Once that completes I would be looking for a large counter-trend move back towards the 3-month 50% levels in MAY....

However, that price action doesn't favour Tuesday's 5-day's breakout...

As the trend should continue down into the Daily lows on Wednesday.

Ideally Friday's close will help verify whether a swing pattern will take place from next week


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

2-day sell off into the 3-week lows....

There is a 5-day pattern breakout, which in theory should continue down on Wednesday..

Two possible patterns for this week...

#1 continues to trend down into a lower Friday close towards the April 50% level

#2 Weekly low support & a short-term counter-trend move upwards and then another down move into the Weekly lows next week, which coincide with the MAY 50% levels.

Note:- As you are aware from my previous AUD reports:- I'm bullish in the 2nd Quarter but I would like to see the trend test the 3-month 50% levels first, and this is happening now

27th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

currencies trading around their 3-week 50% level without any clear direction, as it's coming into the end of the month that's going to align with a number of MAY 50% levels.

Still trading below the 3-week 50% level.

Yellow level the trend guide (resistance) during 4 hour periods.

At this stage I would focus on taking small ranges of 41 to 85 pips.




AUD weekly and 5-day pattern

no probability on direction....

Yellow filter the trend guide.

Potentially a move down, as Monday failed to move higher and close above the 3-day high cycle.

26th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

Euro continues to trading below the 3-week 50% level and has a bias to continue down into the Weekly lows.

Trend guide the 5-day 50% level @ 1.3372



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, the trend guide is the Weekly 50% level .9274

24th April USD, Euro, GBP, AUD, Weekly

USD Index

USD index still has a bias to continue towards the April and MAY highs during the 2nd Quarter.....

which should continue to put pressure on currencies, as long as it remains above the Weekly 50% level.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Break and extend pattern from January until the April or MAY lows are still in play.

Friday's counter-trend move has put price back into the Weekly 50% level, which is the trend guide on any continuation down into the 3-month lows.

There isn't a break out of the 5-day highs that's going to help the euro continue to move upwards next week.

GBP monthly and Weekly

If the USD index is going to move up then GBP should continue down instead of consolidating between the Weekly levels.

This could occur at the start of MAY using the 3-month 50% level, verified by a break of the 3-week lows.

If price moves down into the 3-week lows in the last week of the month and bounces, then there is a possible move upwards in MAY.

trend guide the 3-week 50% level @ 1.5342

AUD Monthly and Weekly

3-week 50% level is the trend guide for next week.....(.9274)

And if above, price can continue towards April highs and then into MAY's highs the week after.

23rd April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

euro completing the break and extend pattern from January's lows into April's lows.

There is a breakout of Thursday's lows:- resistance Yellow filter and Weekly lows.

And probably extend down into Friday's lows.

Weekly report out tomorrow

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD consolidating above support levels...

At this stage I'm trying to work out which direction the weekly range will close....

Higher:- it will need to see price trading above Yellow.

Lower, it would need to break the 3-day lows.

In the middle of the 5-day range:- range between the 3-day lows (blue) and Yellow filter.

no probability in which direction

22nd April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

Trend down and bias is to continue down whilst below the Yellow filter...

Thursday's levels random support.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Currently trading above the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level, which in theory should continue higher.

However, I still believe that AUD needs to revisit the monthly 50% level.

Trend guide:- 92.56 (41 pips)

random resistance Yellow.

Below the 5-day 50% level could see a lower daily close towards Thursday's lows

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Overall trend is to continue down towards the Weekly lows and April lows.

Random support Wednesday's low.

Trend guide Yellow filter @ 1.3443





AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Continuation of the UP trend once above the 5-day 50% level, but price didn't continue towards the 5-day highs.

No probability pattern for Wednesday.

5-day highs:- resistance.

20th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day range

Minor Hook pattern can see a swing back towards the 3-day highs....

3-day highs:- Blue @ 1.3564.

Note:- this is not an offical HOOK bar, as the Daily hasn't closed above the 5-day 50% level

At the moment I'm treating Tuesday with an upward bias (4 hour patterns):- 1 day counter-trend move as long as it's above the Yellow:- 41 to 85 pips

However, I still continue to be bearish overall.

If it was an offical HOOK bar then the target would be the white 3-day highs @ 1.3658.

Note:- Higher daily open and weekly 50% level can still see a move down as part of the overall trend

Trend guide 1.3489


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same pattern as OIL last week....

This could see a swing back towards the 5-day highs by Wednesday...

However, price is still below the 5-day 50% level and Yellow filter (.9258-65)

This could result in a 4 hour resistance patterns of 41 to 85 pips until the US time zone.

Random support:- Weekly 50% levels (.9210-23)

19th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bearish on the Euro and whilst below the Weekly 50% level the bias is to continue down.

At this stage it's hard to be trading longs and holding.

However, be aware that a Monday low support could result in a daily HOOK back upwards .


Yellow filter:- trend guide


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly 50% level support....

Trend guide .9226

As per Weekly report, AUD could swing back towards the highs, however it would need to have a daily close above the Yellow on Monday.

17th April USD, Euro, GBP, AUD, Weekly

USD Index

3-month 50% level support with an expectation that the trends is heading back towards the highs, which should then put pressure on currencies.


Euro monthly and Weekly

With the euro failing to move towards the 3-month 50% level it makes it hard to have the view that the trend will continue down next week.

It will if it's below the Weekly 50% level....

but it could also consolidate until MAY, and then the 3-month 50% level in MAY becomes the trend guide for the next move down.

GBP monthly and Weekly

Whereas the GBP is providing a far more robust set-up to complete the move down into 1.4544 during MAY.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

My view has been a move towards the quarterly highs....

however it has always been related to the 3-month 50% level, and this might occur in MAY.

In the short-term the trend guide is the Weekly 50% level.

And a lower weekly open and above the Weekly 50% level could see a swing back towards the April highs once again.

Daily reports out on Monday

16th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

3-day low support:- 5-day 50% level support could see a higher Friday close back towards April's 50%...

It could also set-up a Friday sell-off and break of support.

Simply use the 5-day 50% level and Yellow filter.

At this stage the patterns suggest UP, however the larger trends in the market can override the patterns and send the Euro Lower.

My Hunch at the moment is Down

AUD Weekly and 5-day

No probability pattern:- trade on the side of the 5-day 50% levels

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Whilst above the 3-week highs the Euro can continue to trend upwards into a higher Friday close towards the April 50% level.

I would have expected more buying on Wednesday if that was going to happen.

The trend guide in the Yellow filter, which matches 85 points from yesterday lows.

Random support 5-day 50% level and 3-day lows @ 1.3556.

Don’t trade longs below support.




AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Continuation of the trend back towards the highs using the 5-day 50% level as support.

Resistance:- April highs and Thursday’s highs.

Minor trend guide (3-day highs) 93.83.

14th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

didn't move down into the 5-day 50% level but back above the Weekly highs.

Whilst above the Weekly highs there's an expectation that price is moving towards the April 50% level.

Yellow level the trend guide.

Support:- 3-day lows and 5-day 50% level.

High risk to be trading longs below those levels because of the large gap:- Weekly 50% level and retest of the 3-day cycle breakout from last week.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly 50% level support should continue towards the Weekly and April highs by Friday.

5-day 50% level trend guide.

Don't trade longs below yesterday's 5-day 50% level.

Price will need to verify a continuation upwards with a 4 hour close above the Yellow filter.

13th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Monday closed back inside the 3-week highs.

I would have expected at least a retest of the breakout of the Daily range and 5-day 50% level.

At this stage the 5-day 50% level is viewed as random support, but whether Tuesday moves higher than the Weekly highs is not known.

Resistance:- Yellow

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

I wouldn't have factored yesterday's price action because of the Friday high breakout.

Normal pattern of a 5-day pattern breakout would be for price to move back down and retest the breakout (5-day 50% level) the next day, and then continue higher the day after (today)

Tuesday's 3-day lows and Weekly 50% level:- support.

Yellow resistance.

Bearish on the break of the Weekly 50% level and 5-day lows

12th April 2010, Euro, AUD, Daily

EURO Weekly and 5-day pattern

I wasn't expecting this week to open above the 3-week highs.

Whilst above the 3-week highs, the move is towards the April 50% level, but whilst above the 3-week highs the euro can move into a break and extend pattern until the following week's highs:- continue trending upwards.

Short-term:- Monday's highs random resistance.

5-day 50% level random Support


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage Weekly and April's highs are viewed was resistance:- 9402

With a potential move towards .98 cents during this Quarter

Sunday's level is the trend guide (yellow) 9360

5-day 50% level support and matching Friday's high breakout @ 9314

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th April USD, Euro, GBP, AUD, Weekly

USD Monthly & Weekly

With the USD Index moving down and not up in early April there is more chance that the Index is going to move down into the 3-month 50% levels and then continue higher later in the Quarter

This should put pressure on currencies once again later this month.

If price can continued into the highs, there would have been a greater chance that the Index would have had a larger 'sell' reversal pattern down later in April.

Euro Monthly and Weekly...

As pointed out in Friday's report there was a probability short-term swing towards the 3-day highs.

That occurred but it also moved beyond the highs and back into the monthly 50% BP (Red)

Looking at the price action I would think that the Euro should move towards the 3-week highs (green) and stall:- range bound between the highs and the Weekly 50% level.

A swing back towards the 3-month 50% level is still a possibility later in April.

GBP monthly and Weekly highs

Supported but treat the Weekly highs next week and the 3-month 50% level as resistance.

I still have the view that GBP is moving towards the 3-month lows.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Should continue towards April's highs next week:- resistance.

With an expectation that the trend is moving towards 98 cents during this Quarter.

9th April USD, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

With Thursday's reversal and break of the Yellow filter, then Friday has a random pattern that could see a continuation of a counter-trend move back towards the 3-day highs (blue channels).

It could also see the 5-day 50% level stall the market and send the euro back down into Friday's lows and Weekly lows.

Trend guide on Friday is the Yellow filter...

At this stage I favour a move towards 3-day highs

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Retest of Tuesday's breakout and higher daily close it most likely going to continue towards a higher Friday close towards the April highs.

Friday's highs:- random resistance:- 41 pips

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th April USD, Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation of heading down into the Weekly and April lows....

Yellow filter trend guide.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

With the AUD already trading around the Weekly highs I won't have a view of the short-term direction until next Week.

Medium term trend is to continue towards the April highs....

5-day 50% level Random support:- 41-85 pips.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT