1st September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Change in timeframe dynamics has the euro trading above the monthly 50% levels but below the 5-day 50% levels

At this stage there's no probability in the direction.

5-day 50% level is the trend guide

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide this week @ 89.68

the 5-day 50% level is the trend guide for today

no probability in today's direction

30th August 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Monday began the 2-day reversal and today is part of that reversal.

Trend guide @ 1.2655.

Random support around Tuesday's lows 1.2594

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

5-day 50% level didn't hold and Tuesday has a random pattern based on the Weekly level @ .8968.

Whilst below the Yellow filter and .8968, the trend bias is towards the 3-day lows and Weekly level @ 8837-42

30th August 2010 , Euro AUD, GBP Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, my view is a 2-day reversal from august 50% levels down into the September 50% level starting on Wednesday.

This is also helped by Friday's 5-day high.

Trend guide @ 1.2755.

Random support the 5-day 50% levels on Monday

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

heading up towards 90.95

A number of resistance levels around Monday's highs:- 90.69-80

support:- 89.39

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

28th August 2010 ,USD Euro AUD, GBP Weekly

USD index

USD index looks well supported, however it's is too early to tell whether price is going to breakout above the September levels (50% levels)...

 or whether it's going to remain range bound and revisit the Yearly 50% level

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro has closed higher on Friday but right on the August 50% level.

It also stalled at the 5-day high on Friday.

I would look at the current price action and have the view that next is going to start with a 2-day down move.

And that decide from Wednesday whether the trend is going to continue lower or not (September start)




GBP monthly and Weekly

Currently looks well support....

Trend guide:- 1.5523.

it is either going to move back down into the Weekly lows, or follow the higher timeframe support levels and continue up towards 1.5829



AUD Monthly and Weekly

Looks well supported around the 3-month 50% level.

Trend guide:- .8968

upside bias is towards 90.95

27th August 2010 ,USD Euro AUD, GBP Daily

USD Index and 5-day pattern

Is the US index going to rally up towards the weekly highs on Friday using the 10-day 50% level and 3-day cycle low as support?

If so it will send currencies down.

or is it going to drop whilst price is below the 5-day 50% level?

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

looking at the euro and failure to break above the August 50% level , this can set-up a Friday that moves down into the Weekly lows.

however, the current price action in the daily range doesn't support that.

Trend guide 1.2707

don't hold shorts above Friday's highs (1.2776)

AUD weekly and 5-day pattern

no probability pattern based on the current 5-day patterns and Weekly ranges.

Trend guide the 5-day 50% level

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

26th August 2010 , Euro AUD, GBP Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trading in on man's land at the moment, as it tries to move down into the Weekly lows.

Trend guide 1.2662

if above price is moving back towards the August 50% levels.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

currently looks supported...

but the trend guide is the 5-day 50% level

if above it's a higher daily close towards .8933

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

25th August 2010 , Euro AUD, GBP Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Resistance @ 1.2714-20

Trend guide @ 1.2624

no probability on whether Wednesday continues down into the Weekly lows or swings upwards.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

3-week low support matched with the August 50% level should in theory swing back towards .8933, as a short term target.

trend guide .8868 (Yellow)

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

24th August 2010 , Euro AUD, GBP Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Trading below August 50% level @ 1.2757

Weekly lows @ 1.2567 (random support)

Trend guide on Tuesday @ 1.2652

Based on current patterns the trend guide is to continue down, however if above 1.2652 there is a possible swing back towards 1.2701-27 (random resistance)

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern.

After Monday’s failure to move up (fake break) above .8933 the trend bias is to continue down towards Tuesday’s lows and also the Weekly lows @ .8818

Around those levels are a number of support levels:- 5-day lows, Weekly lows, and August 50% level.

If the trend is going to move upwards then Tuesday needs to find support and then look for Wednesday/Thursday BUY patterns.


Trend guide on Tuesday is the 5-day 50% level @ 8925-8933

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

23rd August 2010 , Euro AUD, GBP Daily

Euro Weekly anmd 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, there is a possibility that the USD index begins this week with a 2-day down move, therefore the Euro could move upwards...

However, there is no Friday pattern support in the Euro, therefore the probability of the next 2-days rising back above 1.2822 is less likely at this stage.

Monday's Trend guide is 1.2684

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Election result has put pressure of the AUD, and whilst below 89.13 looks like it is moving down towards this week's lows @ 8818

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

14th Aug ,USD, Euro, GBP, AUD, Weekly

USD Index monthly and Weekly

USD index finally continued upwards, however the delayed nature based on Friday's rally doesn't help the trend moving upwards at the start of the Week.

Friday's 5-day high can start next week with a 2-day reversal back down.

If the trend is going to go higher then I would look at the price action from Wednesday.



EURO Monthly & Weekly

If the USD index is going to go down and currencies have found Friday 5-day support patterns then the bias is upwards over the next 2-days.

If the euro struggles to rise higher than 1.2882 in the first 2-days then it is likely to continue down later in the week.

Therefore the first day needs to close above 1.2882 to help validate Tuesday moving higher





GBP monthly and Weekly
Same Friday low pattern suggests a 2-day up move to begin the week.

Support 1.5532

AUD monthly and Weekly

Same 5-day low pattern suggests a 2-day up move towards the 5-day highs as the first target.

Support 89.33 (Trend guide)

20th August 2010 , Euro AUD, GBP Daily

Euro Weekly & 5-day range

I was expecting more upside in the USD index this week, which would put pressure on currencies, but at this stage currencies remain range bound between weekly levels.

There is no probability in Friday's direction other than trading in the side of the 5-day 50% level.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies on the AUD.

5-day 50% level is the trend guide

GBP Weekly and 5-day range

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th August 2010 , USD, Euro AUD, GBP Daily

USD index currently holding support after the 5-day 50% level pushed the market down into the lows and a reversal pattern back upwards

I have an upward bias for Friday, but Thursday could see a rise upwards and then a drift back down before continuing higher on Friday


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Higher timeframe support levels, but failing to remain above the weekly level @ 1.2893, and now price is below the 5-day 50% level.

Trend guide is to move down into Thursday's lows, as long as price remains below 1.2833





AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage AUD is range bound within the weekly levels.

The 3-week low support and currently above 89.54 suggests a higher move.

However, if below 89.54 the bias is to move lower.

Trend guide the 5-day 50% level @ 89.69



GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern.

18th August 2010 , USD, Euro AUD, Daily

USD Index

After a 2-day reversal down from last Friday's highs and the Weekly 50% level as supported the trend, my view is for the USD index to continue higher, as long as price is above the 5-day 50% level on Wednesday NY time.

 Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

If that's the case then the Euro will continue to drop....

However, there is nothing to really verify the trend moving lower, as price remains above the 3-month 50% levels in August and currently above the 5-day 50% level.

What would need to happen is a breakout of 1.2799

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

3-week low is normally seen as robust support and a continuation of the trend upwards...

However, I'm not sure whether the current price action is just a 2-day counter-trend move and Wednesday drops.

Random support the 5-day 50% level @ 8994

17th August 2010 , USD, Euro AUD, Daily

USD Index Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly high reversal down into the 3-week 50% level should continue higher this week using the 3-week 50% level as support, which should also align with the 5-day 50% level.

That's not going to occur until USD index kicks over at midnight.

The only concern on this occuring is Friday's 5-day high, which normally leads to a 2-day reversal.




EURO Weekly and 5-day pattern

Currently supported at the 3-month 50% level in August

Trend guide 1.2844 (intra-day)

If above then around the 3-day high and 5-day 50% level becomes resistance, also based on the Weekly level at the same price, with a possible move down towards the Weekly lows.

This pattern has been optimised to the price action in the USD Index.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Stalled at the 3-day high (blue) and looking to continue up towards today's 3-day high, whilst above the 5-day 50% level.

But there are a number of weekly 50% level that can play a resistance role.

3-week low pattern support above the 3-month 50% level can often continue to move higher during the current month

16th August 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend guide @1.2743

either price swings towards the 3-period highs @ 1.2861

or continues down into the Weekly lows @ 1.2682

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trading around the Weekly lows, but nothing to help verify support, unless trading above the Yellow filter:- 4- hour close.

14th Aug ,USD, Euro, GBP, AUD, Weekly

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

USD index following the 2nd weekly pattern upwards and into the August 50% levels.

Around those levels I'm treating the trend as resistance with a possilbe swing back towards the 3-week 50% levels.

At this stage I'm not treating the Index of continuing the rally upwards without a retest of the 3-week 50% levels.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

If that's the case then the Weekly lows are seen as rando support

With the trend guide being 1.2893

Below the Weekly lows is bearish because of the price action in the larger timneframes.

Euro has moved upwards into the 3- quarterly 50% level and now selling down, which could lead to more weakness, if the USD index is rising upwards from the Yearly 50% level.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Double monthly high in august was helped by the Friday high pattern and reversal down, which should see more weakness towards the Weekly lows and August 50% levels.

Note:- 3-Quarterly 50% level is @ 1.5432, which will play an important role for the rest of the 3rd quarter (random support/ Trend guide)

AUD Monthly and Weekly

This week's reversal pattern would confirmed with the higher timeframe resistance levels and last friday's 5-day high pattern and the start of a 2-day reversal.

The trend should continue down into the Weekly lows, whilst price is below .8954

Major support @ 8797