1st October 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

First day of October and price is pushing up towards the monthly highs.

Trend guide @ 1.3660 (random)

As price can once again push the Euro down during the Asian hours.

Don;t trade longs below the 5-day 50% level @ 1.3571

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation of the trend moving upwards...

However, this week continues to trade around the Weekly highs:-  resistance.

trend guide 96.83

30th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

resistance levels in the lesser timeframes, as price continues to trend up towards the October highs next week.

minor support on Thursday @ 1.3581-90

Below those levels and price is moving down into the 5-day 50% level:- 1.3500-27

Note:- there still hasn''t been a retest of last week's breakout of the highs

Therefore don't trade longs below the 5-day 50% level 1.3500

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend guide and minor support @ .9667

Already trading around the Weekly highs.

Below .9667 and this could be seen as a retest of last week's breakout @  .535

29th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly & 5-day pattern

Breakout in the 5-day high on Tuesday and looking for a moves up towards the highs on Wednesday.

minor resistance @ 1.3636 to 13654

Support before it gets to those highs is 1.3515

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same 5-day high breakout pattern.

Trend guide @ 9660.

As per Weekly report AUD heading up into the 2010 Yearly highs.

28th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

                                                          Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend guide @ 1.3445

based on current price action the short-term move is down towards the 5-day 50% level @ 1.3404 (random support)

anything below 1.3404 is seen as a retest of last week's 3-week breakout @ 1.3191

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Each way bet on the direction during the next 6 hours

Trend guide @ 96.06

either AUD continue up into the blue channel highs @ 96.38

or it is reversing back down into the 5-day 50% level @ 95.70

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd August 2010 , Euro Daily

Euro Weerkly and 5-day pattern.

Support and trend guide @ 1.3449-52

upside target during the first 12 hours is 1.3499 to 1-3514

Below and trend bias is to move back down into 1.3382

25th September 2010 , USD, Euro AUD, Weekly

USD Index Monthly and Quarterly

Random support @ 79.37 September's lows.

However, this price action normally leads to an extension down into the next Quarterly lows in October.

If 79.37 can't hold, then the Index is driving lower in the last week of the Quarter towards 77.03

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro likely to continue to trend upwards, as part of a breakout pattern in September into October's highs.

Starting the Quarter at the highs (October) and I would eventually look for a reversal pattern back down into the 3-month 50% level in the last 2 weeks of October.

Any further gains thereafter is towards 1.4227 later in the Quarter

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD moving up into the 2010 Yearly highs @ 97.86.

There is a breakout of the 3rd Quarter highs in September, therefore there's an expectation that a break and extend pattern will try and continue up into October's highs before reversing back down into the 3-month 50% levels in the 4th Quarter.

24th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

trend guide @ 1.3327

Random support :- 1.3253

Random resistance @ 1.3406 during the next 12 hours

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend guide:- 95.01

for the next 12 hours

23rd September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

next level up in the euro is 1.3529.

Today is the first day since Friday that price is back below the filter.

Trend guide 1.3450

Random support 1.3238

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Trend bias is up towards Thursday's highs @ 9629-31.

support @ 9552.

Support will last for the next 720 minutes.

Support will last until 11pm, when the next level comes into play @ around 9588.

If price hits the highs @ 9629

and is then trading below 9558, this is seen as a reversal pattern back down into the 5-day 50% level @ 94.90

22nd September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

upsdie move into 1.3288 has completed

And likely to continue up towards 1.3357 and September highs

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

moving up into the Weekly highs.

Resistance @ 96.29

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st August 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro moving up into the Weekly highs @ 1.3211- 1.3238

however, I would have like to have seen Monday and Tuesday move down before price continued higher.

no probability pattern on Tuesday.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

My view on the AUD was the same as the S&P 500...

Friday 5-day high and use the 3-day high on Monday as resistance, as part of a 2-day reversal pattern back down into .9307

Instead Monday moved upwards and is likely to continue higher on Tuesday

Random support:- 94.18

17th September 2010 , Euro AUD, GBP, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is a Weekly breakout from last week that I'm expecting the trend to continue upwards this week.

There is also a 5-day high on Friday, which can lead to a 2-day reversal

There's no ideal set-up to short-trade the Euro on Monday

Trend guide 1.3056

Random resistance @ 1.3142

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Breakout of the monthly highs can see the AUD continue into higher highs in October.

However, there's a 5-day high on Friday, which can lead to a 2-day reversal pattern.

Either that reversal pattern is from the 5-day 50% level

or from the 3-day high @ 9428

Random support :- 93.07 and Tuesday's 5-day lows (tomorrow)

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

upside trend towards 1.5890

however, this week can start with a 2-day reversal.

Trend guide @ 1.5677 (3 day high)

18th September 2010 , USD, Euro AUD, Weekly

USD Index

Currently consolidating in the 3rd quarter and until the start of the 4th Quarter.

The 50% level of the 4th Quarter will determine the trend guide, with a likely upward bias towards the Quarterly high.

Currencies hit their 5-day highs on Friday, therefore next week should begin with a 2-day UP move

However, whilst price remains below the 3-month 50% level there is still the possibility that September continues back down into the lows, which will see currencies continues higher thereafter.

Monthly and Weekly

There is a 3-week breakout this week, which should continue higher next week.

However, there is a 5-day high reversal pattern on Friday, which should see next week start with a 2-day reversal.

If the Euro is going to go higher next week, then the ideal pattern would be to see the 5-day lows form support on Tuesday matched with the Weekly high breakout

 

17th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Preferred pattern in the euro didn't play out:- retest of Support.

upside target remains 1.3238

trend guide on Friday is 1.3075

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend above the Weekly and Monthly highs and I would think the trend would continue higher.

5-day 50% level is the trend guide:- 93.69

support:- 3-day low

16th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Breakout pattern in the weekly timeframe with an expectation that the trend is moving up towards 1.3238.

However, I would like to see the Weekly highs retested before the trend continues upwards.

Support as shown in the 5-day range @ 1.2882-95

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Wednesday found support at the weekly highs and the 5-day 50% level.

expectation that the Trend is moving higher.

3-day range high is the trend guide in early trading

@ .9379

15th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is a breakout of the weekly and daily highs on Tuesday.

This now has an upper target @ 1.3238.

Trend guide @ support:- 1.2963

Random resistance Wednesday's highs @ 1.3088

Note;- if below 1.2963

trned bias is to move back down into the support levels in the 5-day range @ 1.2875- 94

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies on the AUD...

Breakout and likely to move higher

could see a swing back down into the 3-day lows @ 9316

14th Sept 2010 ,USD, Euro AUD, Daily

Euro weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation the Euro would continue higher has played out, but is now trading around the weekly highs.

There are conflicting patterns...

Weekly highs resistance

or a 5-day high breakout can continue to trend up towards Tuesday's highs.

Trend guide 1.2873

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Has already completed the 2-week extend move with Monday's highs.

I would begin to look for a short-term pullback towards the 3-day lows.

.9313 is the trend guide

13th September 2010 , Euro & AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Weekly 50% level and the 5-day 50% levels are the trend guides for this week.

1.2742

As long as price is above the brown filter in the daily range the trend bias is up, with random resistance around 1.2764 in the first part of the day

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD coming into resistance levels around 93.13

Yellow filter the trend guide @ 93.15

There is still the possibility that the AUD is following a 2-month wave pattern upwards after finding support @ the August 50% levels, and the September highs is the first month @ 93.13

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th September 2010 , USD, Euro AUD, Weekly

USD Index

At this stage the USD Index  is consolidating within the 3rd Quarter after finding support around the Yearly 50% level.

There is a bias to continue higher, but that will need to be verified only after price is trading above the September 50% levels

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Consolidating above support levels and forming a support base.

At this stage price can continue to consolidate until the end of the Quarter, but what traders need to keep an eye on is  whether the USD Index continues higher and the Euro breaks below 1.2566.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

holding support @ 1.5264

1.5264 is either going to send GBP higher over the next 2-months

or it's going to break and move lower

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD moving up into higher timeframe resistance levels...:- 9392

but the strength of the trend should be determined by price trading either side of the 3-Quarterly 50% level @ 9189-98

10th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern
Euro moving back down into support levels:- 3-week lows and September 50% levels.
Also 5-day lows.
If this hold support then there's an expectation of the trend moving higher next week.
 
AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern
There is a breakout of the 5-day highs on Thursday, therefore there's an expectation that the trend is moving higher.
However, price has already reached this week's highs:- resistance
5-day 50% level is seen as support, but a move towards the September highs might not happen until next week.
• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend guide 1.2699.

for the Euro to continue higher it needs to break above the 5-day 50% level.

otherwise price can push down into support levels and the September 50% level.

no probability on direction

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend guide .9173

8th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern
I didn't factor in a 2-day reversal on Euro this week, but it has followed a move down into the 5-day lows.
Euro is either going to continue down into the September 50% level and 3-week lows, which is seen as major support @ 1.2628
or it can swing up from the 5-day lows and have a higher daily close:- 5-day 50% level to 1.2830
Trend guide:- 1.2693

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern
I did factor in a 2-day reversal on the AUD and that has now completed.
Trend guide is simply the 5-day 50% level:- either way @ 9118
no probability on whether price swing back into the 3-day highs or down into the 3-day lows (blue channels)

7th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on Monday's price action, Tuesday looks like it can remain tradign between the weekly levels of 1.2866 and 1.2746

Trend guide:- 1.2826


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

This week's view was to begin with a 2-day reversal back down into .9085, which aligns with the 5-day 50% level.

Trend guide .9151

6th September 2010 , Euro AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend guide is simply 1.2866.

It's either going to continue upwards and brerakout of the weekly highs

or reverse down and back into the 5-day 50% level, which price remains below the trend guide @ 1.2894.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

5-day high stall, would normally lead to a 2-day reversal pattern towards the 5-day lows or Weekly 50% level.

The first day would normally try and push back down into the 50% level @ 90.63 to 90.85

Trend guide .9175

4th September 2010 , USD, Euro AUD, Weekly

USD Index

Similar patterns in the USD Index as the price action that occurred in Equity markets during August.

The 3-week lows has moved upwards, which may provide some support, but if it follow the same pattern then there's an expectation of a double Weekly low for the following week

Euro Weekly

If the USD index is going down then the Euro must be going up.

Support:- 1.2866/ trend guide

Random resistance the weekly highs.

A breakout of those highs and expectation the trend is moving up towards the September highs

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Same applies on GBP:- trend guide 1.5431.

with the upside target the Weekly highs.

There has been a double Weekly low support pattern this week, therefore my view is up

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Heading higher during the 3rd quarter.

however random resistance around the 2nd Weekly highs @ .9239