USD Index
USD index has found support around October lows, but the 4th quarter low is stopping the index from rising, hence why currencies aren't falling from their October highs
I'm not sure what happen in the Index futures late on Friday, because the same spike upwards wasn't mirrored in currencies.
There is still the possibility that the USD index risings up next week, if price is above the weekly levels @ 76.57 to 76.89
Imo opinion, USD is setting up from further falls in the 4th quarter and going lower into 2011,
Which why I’m bullish on currencies to go higher, and it gives some reason why currencies haven't continued lower after the first 2-days this week, as the USD remains below higher timeframe breakout patterns in the 4th Quarter. (yellow)
But to help validate my long term views of the USD going lower and currencies
going higher, I would still like to see the next trends originate
from November
Therefore whilst we are in October, I will continue to focus on the
short of the AUD & Euro and filter out those expectations on a daily basis.
AUD monthly and Weekly
If the AUD is going to go down, then the simple trend filter is the weekly levels @ 98.49.
This is either going to push the AUD back up into the highs, which may result in another 5-days of sideways price action...
or it's going to sell of and begin to gather selling pace towards the Weekly lows
Euro Quarterly and Weekly
Same applies on the euro:- Trend guide 1.3895.
Either the Euro follows #9
or continues to consolidate until #10 and then pushes higher into 2011
GBP monthly and Weekly
GBP has shown more weakness.
Trend guide 1.5665
moving down into higher timeframe support levels, but at this stage it's too early to tell which support level in the quarterly and monthly timeframes will be valid
Random support 1.5585 (3-week lows)
