1st March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

The euro continues upwards, but the monthly close above 1.3766 is a critical pattern, as it places the Euro finally above the 3-year 50% level (1.3766)

Because of this, there is now the view that the euro should continue towards the March highs.

If it follows the trend of being above the 3-year 50% level, then the support levels @ 11am are the key zones :- 1.3800

Random resistance (Tuesday's highs)

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Monday's support provided a 41 pip move upwards, and the following 12 hour pushed the AUD up into the Weekly highs.

These Weekly levels, have constantly stall the AUD during the first Quarterly cycle (1.019), and may do so again today.

Trend guide 1.0178

otherwise, if above 1.0178 after 11am, it's following the daily range upwards, as part of a weekly trend towards the MARCH highs 1.0352

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

This week's trading is simply trying to define whether the 3-year 50% level continues to resist the trend from rising, and it's push back down towards the MARCH 50% levels & support.

or whether price moves up towards the Weekly highs.

Weekly level is the trend guide for this week @ 1.3759.

The daily pattern at 11am and the brown filter will define the short-term trend guide, on whether Monday moves upwards...

or continues to move back down towards lower intra-day support levels, as shown (blue channels).

no probability in which direction Monday will go.



AUD Weekly and Daily range.

There isn't a high prbability set-up for Monday...

Random support around the channel lows @ 11am :- 1.0121 ( 41 pips)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th FEB 2011, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

USD index likely to continue down into the MARCH lows, as it is now trading below the first quarterly level (Yellow)

But in the short-term, there could be a minor counter-trend move upwards, depending what side of the Weekly level the Index is trading

EURO Monthly and Weekly

My view was that the Euro would remain above the Weekly level @ 1.3766 and continue towards the highs.

That could still happen early next week, if above 1.3757, but it's having a hard time getting above the 3-year 50% level @ 1.3766

That means we could see see the trend move back down into the Weekly 50% level & support.

Note:- we can see the shift in the 3-month 50% levels in MARCH, towards a lower secondary support zone around 1.3496

AUD monthly and Weekly

Trend moving upwards, and my overall view is for the price to reach the yearly highs @ 1.06 during 2011.

However, I'm not sure that next week will continue to trend upwards....

or whether the Weekly highs & the single monthly high @ 1.0262 stalls the market from rising.

Any longer term view is optimised with 12 hour patterns within the 5-day range.

25th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro moving up towards the Weekly and Daily highs on Friday:- random resistance.

Any resistance is only seen as short-term, with the weekly level @ 1.3766 providing support on Friday.

However, if it does stall, then we once again look for a 2-day reversal next week towards the Weekly 50% level

Note:- there is a larger trend pattern that's rising up from the February 50% level that's moving towards the MARCH highs.

Therefore, the highs are Friday have less probability of stalling the trend.



AUD Weekly and Daily range.


12 hour trend guides pushing the AUD higher, with the 2nd providing the move above the weekly 50% level @ 1.0053

My expectation is that the trend is moving higher on Friday, using the support levels from 11am.

Note:- Friday's highs are seen as random resistance, with an overall target the Weekly highs

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro didn't retest the support levels on Wednesday, but it has continued up into the Weekly level @ 1.3766, which has formed resistance.

Because the Euro is trading above the monthly 50% level, the expectation is for the trend to continue towards a higher Weekly close by Friday... (weekly highs)

helped by Wednesday's close above the Daily highs, and probable extension up into Thursday's highs.

However, as seen over the past number of weeks, these weekly highs (white) have often formed resistance, pushing the trend back down into a large consolidating pattern during the first Quarter.

Therefore:- don't trade longs below the brown filter, as price is moving back down into the intra-day random support levels @ 1.3699.


AUD Weekly and daily range

Expectation that the AUD would have a better chance of moving upwards during the 2nd 12 hour pattern failed to play out, as first support @ 1.0015 failed...

Price then moved down into 2nd support, which often provides the best set-up for the next leg upwards in the following day.

My view is that the AUD is above the 3-month 50% level and trying to move upwards, however at this stage it's still below the Weekly 50% level.

If the trend is going higher, then Thursday should begin the next leg upwards, and remain above 1.0053

Note:- my view is for the AUD to continue higher, however I can never discount AUD selling down on Thursday and back towards the February 50% level @ .9912 and Weekly lows.

This view isn't pattern of today's set-up, based on Tuesday's price action.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22rd FEB 2011, AUD, EURO Daily

Weekly and Daily range

AUD has completed the 2-day reversal back down into the 5-day lows, finding support.

This could lead into the AUD moving higher on Wednesday, but i'm not sure how much higher price will move during the first 12 hours, as the channel lows and the Weekly 50% level could stall price from rising.

If there are more gains on Wednesday, it might happen during the 2nd 12 hours.

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Based on the first 12 hours on Tuesday, my view was that price would continue down into Tuesday's lows beofre finding random support.

With the daily close above the Weekly and monthly 50% levels, I would now think price will continue to move higher this week.

Ideally price would revisit Support and the channel lows @ 1.3631/33 before the trend has the potential to move towards the Weekly high @ 1.3766

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd FEB 2011, AUD, EURO Daily part 2

AUD Weekly and daily range

AUD has continued down on the 2nd day and is now trading below the Weekly 50% level.

Any upside won't be verified unless Tuesday closes back above this level (after 2-days)

Based on the current price action, the trend looks to be moving down into Tuesday's lows:- random support.

Note:- with all the trouble coming out of the Middle East, there could be a flight to the USD that might strengthen that currency against others.


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies with the Euro...

Below the Weekly 50% level and also a break in the 12 hour range can see price continue down into Tuesday's lows.

22nd FEB 2011, AUD, EURO Daily

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Expectation that the AUD would move into a 2-day reversal pattern towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0053.

That weekly 50% level might or might be reach precisely, as the first 12 hour levels from 11am will be the trend guide if Tuesday begins a move towards the Weekly level @ 1.02 by Wednesday/Thursday.

Trend guide @ 1.009

Keep in mind that an R85 pip low @ 1.0073 might be reached first.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

my view is that the Euro will continue higher, but at this stage it's gone into a consolidating pattern.

The levels on Tuesday don't look like providing a robust trending day, but if the Euro is above the white channel highs @ 1.3688 then the bias is up.

However, my most robust pattern would be price touching the Weekly 50% level, as it will also align with a R84 pip low (spiral low and rising up from higher timeframe support)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Friday breakout should continue to move towards Monday's highs and the Weekly level @ 1.3766

Those highs are seen as random resistance levels.

As per Weekly report:- the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3631 is seen as support.

AUD Weekly and daily range

My view is that the AUD is moving higher, but starting this week with a 2-day reversal pattern.

Trend guide is simply based on the level @ 1.0132

otherwise the AUD can continue to follow the daily range towards the highs on Monday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19 Feb 2011 USD, EUR & AUD Weekly

USD Index:- Monthly and Weekly

Remains range trading between higher timeframe monthly levels, and may continue to do so next week, if it remains between the weekly levels.

That will effect the trends in currencies like the Euro.

If the USD follows the trend and breaks the Quarterly support (Yellow) then the USD Index will continue to trend down into February's lows, whilst the Euro continues higher.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

The Euro has continued into a higher Weekly close, helped by the breakout of Friday's highs.

This should see the Euro continue towards next week's highs, with random resistance @ 1.3766.

Support:- Weekly and monthly 50% level, if there is any minor weakness early next week.


We just have to look for patterns that favour more upside during the current Quarter (towards the highs) using the levels in the Daily range towards the single month highs @ 1.3935


AUD Monthly and Weekly

Higher high by Friday using the Weekly HOOK pattern should continue to trend up towards next week's highs.

However, Friday's 5-day high formed resistance, and that may see a minor reversal of 2-days early next week.

If that's the case, then the Weekly 50% level is used as support for another 5-day pattern that continues upwards.

18th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro swing back towards the monthly and Weekly 50% levels.

Based on the current price action, it's too early to tell whether the Euro will break higher or hit resistance.

Therefore:- friday's highs are seen as random resistance & range bound between the daily levels


AUD Weekly and Daily range


Daily HOOK pattern Yesterday above the Weekly 50% level, and higher highs by Friday.

Expectation that the AUD is following a double Weekly high pattern into next week's highs.

However, Friday's highs and the matching Weekly level @ .10154 is seen as random resistance today.

HOOK patterns don't normally close lower on Friday, therefore any resistance is seen as only temporary:- 41 pips (max 85 pips)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Choppy trading day on Wednesday, with 2nd support providing the pattern that has seen the daily range close upwards and back above the key levels in the Weekly range.

The February 50% level @ 1.3156 is now the trend guide for the rest of the week, as the Euro continues back towards 1.3623 to 1.3657.


11am support in the daily range @ 1.3539

Thursday's highs random resistance

AUD Weekly and daily range.

Wednesday didn't follow the trend down into .9921, instead it has remained above the February monthly 50% level @ .9974, as shown in the Weekly report.

There are two possible patterns for Thursday....

#1 Continues up from the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0016 once again (-5day 50% level @ 1.0013), and towards and higher high by Friday. (random resistance Thurday's highs)

Ideally, this is also part of a Weekly HOOK pattern, as the daily range closes above the Weekly and 5-day 50% level.

#2 or remains choppy once again, revisiting the daily support levels @ 9968-74

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily part 2

Euro Weekly and Daily range

first 4 hours has moved up into resistance levels @ 1.3533.

This can set-up Wednesday moving back down, as per morning report.

Don't trade shorts above 1.3545 after 7pm, as the set-up is likely to fail and Wednesday could actually swing back towards the Weekly 50% level.

Current expectation is further weakness, based on the higher timeframe patterns.

AUD Weekly and Daily range


My view was that the AUD would hit .9978/85 and continue down towards Wednesday's lows.

Instead there is a 4-hour close above the intra-day level @ .9985 @ 3pm

This could see more upside during the first 12 hours, however it could also simply be a retest of the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0016.

not a high probability set-up to trade longs, but .9985 is now the trend guide

16th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Euro currently consolidating between the Weekly levels during the first 2-days this week.

However, after 2-days of not moving upwards, but closing below the monthly 50% level @ 1.3516, there is now the potential for the Euro to continue down towards the Quarterly level @ 1.3180.

The Trend guide is going to be the brown filter at 11am in the daily range.

The white channel highs are seen as resistance @ 1.3533

and the first sign of the euro going lower is a break of the channel lows and continuing down into Wednesday's lows :- random support.

my view is that the Euro is going lower, simply because of the first 2-days trading below monthly 50% level.

If I'm wrong, then the Euro will be trading above 1.3527 (Weekly level) and above daily channel highs (resistance)

AUD Weekly and Daily range

We have a similar pattern as last week, the AUD can't remain above the 85 pip highs, and is now rotating down towards .9921 and Wednesday's lows.

As noted in Yesterday's report... it next leg upwards was based on 2nd support, and 2nd support failed to hold

Based on the daily range:- my view is that the AUD will continue down, and follow the daily range

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Monday failed to remain above 2nd support (from 11pm), after the first 12 hour pattern pushed upwards.

My view was that the first 2 days will try and move upwards, and that might still be the case after the Weekly lows provided support on Monday....

However, the Euro is now trading below the monthly 50% level @ 1.3516, which confirms more weakness.

In conclusion:- the trend guide is simply based on the 11am level @ 1.3492.

no probability in which direction Tuesday will go

AUD Weekly and Daily range.

As per Weekly report, my view was that the AUD will swing back towards the Weekly highs, however Monday's price action didn't provide the follow through during the 2nd 12 hour pattern (above 1.0051)

And once again we find the AUD trading around the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0016

Tuesday:- the brown filter and 1.0016 could once again provide another push upwards...

but we should keep in mind that there might not be further gains in the AUD until price tests the support channels intra-day. (blue)

That might not happen until the 2nd 12 hours (2nd support).

If AUD fails to make any gains on Tuesday, and we have 2 choppy trading days around the Weekly 50% level, then there could be further weakness towards the February 50% level @ 9912.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

As per Weekly report, we have monthly support @ 1.3516 and also the Friday 5-day low pattern, which often suggests that the start of the week will move upwards during the first 2-days.

Trend guide using the Weekly level @ 1.3527.

Based on the levels in the daily range, it might not move up until the 2nd 12-hour pattern (above 1.3527) during the US timezone.

at this stage price could continue down towards the Weekly lows. (blue channels)

As per Weekly report:- don't trade longs below the Weekly level and Monday's lows

AUD Weekly and daily range

As per Weekly report I'm looking for the trend to continue upwards, as long as it is above the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0016

target is the Weekly highs over the next 2-days.

This is based on the monthly 50% level support and Friday's low pattern @ .9974/76

Trend guide @1.0011 at 11am

don't trade longs below support @ .9977

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12th FEB 2011, USD, EUR, AUD, Weekly Report

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

USD Index is currently supported above the 1st Quarterly level (Yellow), which isn't allowing the US Dollar to drop.

Next Week

There is a 5-day high pattern on Friday which suggests next week will move downward over the first 2-days.

if there is sustained weakness then the USD index downside target is the February lows.

If that occurs the Euro will continue to rise.

if the USD moves down 2-days but finds support and the Weekly 50% level and once again begins to trade above 78.40..

then there is the possibility that the USD dollar could rise later in the week.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

As noted in Friday's report...

Expectation that the 2nd 12 hour pattern could provide Friday low support, which it did.

Therefore next week my view is that the Euro will try and rise upwards over the first 2-days, with a target being the weekly highs.

however, if the first 2-days struggle to rise higher than the Weekly 50% level @ 1.36570....

Then traders need to look for patterns from Wednesday onwards, that may result in the euro breaking the Weekly lows, and moving back down into the Quarterly 50% level (Yellow) @ 1.3180 

AUD Monthly and Weekly

higher timeframe support and Friday 5-day low pattern...

suggests next week will begin with a 2-day rise...

target the Weekly highs... as long as it remains above the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0016

11th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Whilst the euro remains above 1.3516 the trend bias is to continue upwards..(February 50%)

However, in the Weekly timeframe we have seen the past 5-days consolidate after an early rise upwards this week.

If the Euro is going to continue higher, then Friday's daily lows need to hold support.

This will help validate support and we begin next week with a  2-day rise

Euro Weekly and Daily range.

Today:- during the first 12 hours my view is that the market will likely remain below the trend guide, which is seen as resistance, and once again push down into the lows on Friday.

any weakness down into Friday's lows @ 1.3497 could occur in the 2nd 12 hour period.

it's those lows that are going to determine whether the Euro continues higher next week.

AUD monthly and Weekly

My view was for the AUD to continue upwards this week, whilst above 1.0117...

 but the price action has changed in the short-term & reversed back down towards the February 50% level, which is a similar pattern as last December, and also a similar pattern as the Euro earlier this week.

If the trend is going to move upwards, then these 50% levels (Weekly also) need to hold...

 and we then validate support by next week's open

AUD Weekly and daily range

Yesterday had an early rise # 1 ...

But then it failed, confirmed with a Thursday low breakout #2

Expectation is that price is heading down into Friday's lows @ 9972  #3

These lows also match the Monthly and Weekly 50% levels @ .9974/76

Therefore if these hold support then there is the expectation that next week will begin with a 2-day rise... that can see further gains later in the month towards the highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Euro has continued into the Weekly level @ 1.3748 by Thursday.

As per Weekly report, the Euro can continue towards the Weekly highs once again (from the February 50% level)...

however, the Weekly level can act as resistance during the first 12 hour period and see price back down into trailing support levels.

Note:- Trend guide is used, as if the Euro is continuing towards Thursday's highs.

This can be based on the 12 hour breakout @ 1.3682 that extends into the next 12 hour highs.

but once again it will depend on the Weekly level.

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Expectation of more upside has failed to materialise, as the price action continues to consolidate around the Weekly level @ 1,0117.

My view hasn't changed.

i'm still expecting the break and extend pattern to continue towards this week's highs by Friday.

Trend guide remains @ 1.0117

Support @ 1.0101

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro has continued to push upwards, but it failed to close above the 5-day 50% level.

Officially it's not a Weekly HOOK pattern, because Tuesday would normally close above both the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level, and then continue up towards higher highs by Friday.

Wednesday is simply defined by the filters and support @ 1.3613 @ 11am

any upside and the target is towards the Weekly level @ 1.3748 by Thursday.

Note:- if Wednesday moves down, then random support around the channel lows @ 1.3548.

AUD Weekly and 5-day range.

AUD still supported, but it can't rise more than 85 pips.

This has resulted in a 2-day consolidating pattern at the start of the week above 1.0117

There is still the expectation that the AUD will follow a break and extend pattern into this week's highs.

ideally from the 5-day 50% level once again.

any minor weakness early on Wednesday, and 2nd support as shown is once again used.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.


The euro is trading between two February 50% levels, as shown in the Weekly report.

 1.3516 (FEB 50%)  is supporting the current price action along with Monday’s lows.

And as shown in the above chart, 1.3623 (FEB 50%) is resisting the trend.

At the moment it’s inclusive which way the euro will go.

Trend guide @ 1.3568 at 11am

If it’s going upwards it will need to break out above the 5-day 50% level @ 1.3650

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern.


I was looking for more upside on Monday, but it has consolidated above 1.0117.

Whilst price remains above this level, my view remains that the AUD will continue upwards based on the break and extend pattern from last week’s highs towards this week’s highs (& February highs).

The 5-day 50% level is the trend guide for today @ 1.0129 from 11am.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range.

As per Weekly report, the key levels are based on the February 50% level in the monthly chart @ 1.3514 & and the Weekly level @ 1.3595.

We are filtering the price action using the levels in the 12-hour ranges.

Starting with the brown filter @ 1.3595

My view is that the Euro will try and move upwards, however based on Monday’s level, which matches the Weekly 50% level, the Euro will try and push down towards Monday’s lows.

Note:- Monday’s lows match the Monthly 50% level @ 1.3514...

Therefore the 12 hour pattern needs to find support and then the following 12 hour pattern should provide a set-up for a move upwards...

Otherwise Don’t trade longs below 1.3498. (breakout), which could see more weakness down into the Weekly levels @ 1.34420

AUD Weekly and daily range

Expectation that AUD is continuing upwards, whilst above 1.0117:- Weekly highs then Monthly highs.

However, whilst AUD is currently below the brown filter I would think AUD will push back down into the weekly level, and as far as support @ 1.0101

if above the brown filter, it moves into 12 hour resistance around the highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

5th FEB 2011, USD, EUR, AUD, Weekly

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

Because the USD index is trading below the Yearly 50% level, my view is that next week should continue down from resistance levels (February 50% level)...

Whilst currencies continue higher.

Note:- if the USD Index is above the Weekly 50% level and monthly 50% level, the trend bias is to follow a double Weekly high pattern.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

The euro completed a double Weekly high pattern this week, and has reverse back down into the monthly 50% level.

The Weekly timeframe has now moved into February, which aligns with a lower weekly open, and at this stage it is seen as support.

Therefore the weekly 50% level is seen as the trend guide, for a swing back towards the Weekly level @ 1.3780, and then a continuation towards the highs.

Below the monthly 50% level, and it's seen as a push back down (random pattern)

However, I continue to be bullish on the euro, as price is above the Yearly 50% level.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

My view is that the AUD is heading towards the 2011 highs & 1.06

with the medium-term target being the February highs, and then towards the March highs, as part of a 2-month wave pattern upwards during this quarterly cycle.

Next week's level is the trend guide @ 1.0117...

as it continues towards the Weekly highs

Note;- if below, we could see a similar pattern as the euro, and a rotation back down to the February 50% level.