30th April, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index Primary & Secondary cycles

USD dollar is down into the Yearly lows and also the 3-Quarterly lows...but it's below the April lows that could see an extension down into the MAY lows.

My view is that the USD dollar is going to swing upwards in the next week or two, but the key pattern to watch is how the next 4 weeks plays out...

Because of the 3rd month of the current Quarter, which could send the trend lower into the 3rd Quarter, resulting in a breakout of the Yearly lows in 2011.

A breakout of the Yearly lows will continue to move lower towards the lows in 2012

Euro Yearly and Secondary cycles

if that's the case the expectation that the Euro can continue to move up into MAy's highs, but then reverse back down into the MAY 50% level...

Because the Euro is above the Yearly highs, then we look for the next move upwards from June towards 1.5982 (100% yearly)

AUD Primary and Secondary

Same applies on the AUD....

MAY high resistance.....

And MAY 50% level support, as it's above the Yearly highs...

then look from June onwards for the next move upwards.

Daily reports out @ 9:30 am on Monday

29th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Thursday found support on it's 84 pip spiral low and matching level

Trend bias is to continue towards next week's highs (& monthly highs)

However, keep an eye on a potential 5-day high pattern on Friday....

This will help set-up next week moving down, to retest this week's breakout and Weekly level.

Note:- 3-week lows now match the MAY 50% level 

AUD Weekly  and Daily range

Same pattern on Thursday as the Euro ( 84 pip spiral low)...

And expectation that the same pattern will play out in the AUD....

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Last Week Rally in April, looks to be pushing the trend towards the MAY highs, and also 100% of the Yearly range.

Random resistance around Thursday's highs

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Early resistance at the weekly highs yesterday....

but the overall break of the 2011 highs is send the AUD towards 1.17-18

Random resistance Thursday's highs

27th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro continued down into the 5-day 50% level, which matched the 85 pip spiral low, but it wasn't until price was above the Weekly level @ 1.4545 that the rally towards the Weekly highs eventuated.

Today:- 

Weekly highs are seen as resistance, but there's still the possibility that the last week in April continues to trend upwards, and towards the .618 of the Yearly timeframe @ 1.4950

for the first 12 hours I would concentrate on the levels in the daily range

AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD is now trading @ .618 of the yearly highs @ 1.0870...

and with the current price action in the daily range, it's likely to move towards the Weekly highs:- random resistance @ 1.0842

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

last week of April and coming into the start of MAY (next week)

therefore, this week is about whether the trend continues towards the Weekly highs, and then towards the MAY highs next week...

or there's a reversal down into the last week of the month.

Trend guide remains the upper weekly level @ 1.4541-45

Currently the Euro is swinging around in 85 pip ranges, but to confirm weakness, there needs to be a 4 hour close below the 5-day 50% level and channel lows (support)

Note:- Euro continues to trade around the 2011 highs, therefore there's a lot of resistance around these highs 1.0631

AUD Weekly and Daily range

The same applies on the AUD...

either is remains above the 2011 highs @ 1.0612 and continues towards the weekly highs, and then the MAY highs

Trend guide and support @ 1.0664

or it reverses down helped by a 4hour close below support levels (Trend guide & 5-day 50% level)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Unless the Euro us trading below the Weekly level @ 1.4545 , and also the channel lows in the 5-day range...

the treend bias is up towards Monday's highs, and also the Weekly highs

trend guide @ 1,4596

AUD Weekly and Daily range...

As per weekly report, as the AUD is moving up towards the .618 of the Yearly highs @ 1.0870

And based on Monday's levels and the trend guide @ 1.0764

the trend bias is to continue higher

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd April, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index Primary and Secondary cycles

USD Index is moving down into the Yearly lows, it will now depend on whether these lows support the USD dollar..

or it continues to breakout and freefall towards the 2012 yearly lows (unknow as yet)

Currently the Trend is trading below the April lows, and unless there's a last week reversal upwards, it is likely to continue to push towards the MAY lows

EURO & AUD Primary

both the Euro and the AUD are trading around their Yearly highs...

both these currencies can hang around these highs, but if the USD continues to fall, then both these currencies will be making a move towards the 100% of the Primary cycle

Euro & AUD Weekly

In the short -term, the weekly levels will determine whether the trend will continue up towards this week's highs...

or rotate back down into the Weekly 50% levels

22nd April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro has stalled at the Yearly highs @ 1.4631, and is currently trading below the Weekly high

Random support @ 1.4530...

it's too early to tell whether the Euro will make a move towards the highs on Friday...

or break random support and continue back down towards the 5-day 50% level & 1.4428

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

AUD is now trading between the upper weekly levels @ 1.0612 & 1.0870

As seen in the S&P 500, the AUD could remain range bound between these levels over the next few weeks, (Read Weekly tomorrow's weekly report)

Today:-

Support @ 1.0714

this will either push the AUD towards Friday's highs

or

fail and drop back down into 1.0612-20

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily

Thursday's trend guide is simply based on whether it will continue towards Thursday's highs (& higher),

as the USD dollar collapses

or it moves back down towards the trailing support levels (50% level)

trend guide 1.4518

AUD Weekly and daily range

Same pattern in the AUD

trend guide brown filter.

Support @ 1.0610-16
Support aligns with the Yearly highs @ 1.0612....
Note:- the Weekly highs are important, as it will tell traders whether this week remains above those levels, and extends towards higher highs next week

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

I was looking for weakness on Tuesday based on Monday’s 5-day breakout (#1 & #2), but instead it has continued up….


Trend guide on Wednesday is the 5-day 50% level and upper weekly channel @ 1.4358

Random resistance @ 1.4413

if above 1.4413, then look for a push up towards the weekly highs, during the 2nd 12 hours,.

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Early weakness from the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday, but a failure to complete the R84 pip lows and matching support @ 1.0437..

Trend guide is now the upper weekly level @ 1.0536.

Along with the levels in the daily range…

Note;- still looking for the Yearly highs @ 1.0612 to be reached

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Monday breakout should extend down into Tuesday's lows...

Any further weakness will need to breakout of the Weekly lows

trend guide brown filter

If the euro moves upwards, then random resistance the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Based on Monday's trading and Tuesday being below the 5-day 50% level....

The trend bias is down towards Tuesday's lows...

Breakout of Tueaday's lows in the 2nd 12 hour and below the Wekely 50% level, will see more weakness towards the April 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Weekly level pushing the Euro down towards the Weekly 50% level:-

Random support Monday's lows @ 1.4841

AUD Weekly and Daily range...

Weekly level @ 1.0536 is the trend guide...

Based on the levels in the 12 hour range, it's too early to tell which direction Monday will take..

For the AUD to continue to move down towards the weekly 50% level, it will need to break support and the 5-day 50% level 1.0498

16th April, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index  Primary and Secondary cycles

The question remains..... does the USD index reverse up from the April lows and 2011 Yearly lows?

or does it continue with the larger Primary trend and make lower lows into 2012

AUD Primary and Secondary cycles

Resistance remains around 1.0612 to 1.0666

Expectation that the trend will come back towards lower support levels.

However, if April closes above those levels, there is the possibility that the AUD continues towards 1.1707 during 2011

Euro Primary and Secondary cycles.

Same applies on the Euro....

Expectation that the market is trading around April resistance levels...

Yearly highs @ 1.4631

any further gains above those highs, could see a rally towards 1.5655 to 1.5982

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro continues to remain choppy within the 12 hour ranges

Not probibility in which direction it will go within Friday's range.

Weekly highs are seen as resistance

AUD Weekly and Daily range..

AUD trying to move up towards the Yearly highs @ 106.12, as long as it remains above the Weekly level @ 1.0444

if it's above the channel high @ 11am (1.0542) the trend bias is up on Friday.

Don't trade longs below intra-day support (4 hour close) @ 1.0480

as Friday could close lower

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

the euro has been choppy during each 12 hour pattern, without any clear direction.

Either the euro continues higher, or it drops down into the Weekly level @ 1.4322.

I favour a move down, using the monthly highs and the brown filter as a trend guide...

but it will need to break support and the 5-day 50% level.

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

Remains supported, but not continuing up and towards the Yearly top @ 106.12

Thursday is a simple case of trading on the right side of the 5-day 50% level....

My view is up...

but it can push back down into intra-day support levels

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

5-day support on Tuesday looks to be pushing the Euro back towards the Weekly and daily highs,

using the upper channels as a trend guide 1.4481.

Note;- if it does continue upwards, I will still be looking for the Euro to make its way back towards last week's breakout and Weekly level @ 1.4332 later this week.

Trend on the side of 1.4481

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

Upper Weekly level and April highs continues to support the trend..

and there's now the possibility that price continues up towards 1.0612.

It's simply a case on trading on the side of the daily levels

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Whilst the euro is below the April highs @ 1.4446, the trend bias is down towards the lower Weekly level 1.4322, which retests last week's breakout.

Therefore, it will need to be trading below the 5-day 50% level @ 1.4376.

At this stage it's too early to tell whether the Euro will continue towards this week's highs.

That Weekly level @ 1.4322 is a random support zone, as price can continue down into Tuesday's 5-day lows,  Daily Support.

 

Note:- Keep in mind that the Euro is coming down from the 2nd quarter highs in April, therefore there is always to possibility that the trend is reversing back towards the lower Weekly levels (3-week lows)

AUD Weekly and Daily 

AUD coming back towards the Weekly level and April highs.

These levels are seen as Random support zones @ 1.0434.

Based on the current levels in the 12 hour range, it's too early to tell whether the AUD will swing back towards the Yearly highs @ 106.12.

Don't trade longs below 1.0424, as the market will move back towards the Weekly 50% level, and then the 3-week lows over the coming days.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Expectation that the AUD will at least move towards 1.0612 (Yearly highs), and could continue towards Monday's and then the Weekly highs.

However, after 1.0612 is reached we should begin to look for potential 'sell' set-ups using the 12 hour ranges.

Euro Weekly and daily range

Normally a 5-day high breakout will extend up towards Monday's highs....

At this stage focus on 41 pip ranges and the brown filter around these highs.

Once the USD reaches the April lows and Yearly lows, then there is the potential for the Euro to begin to unwind towards the monthly 50% levels and lower prices.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th April, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Yearly and Monthly

USD index moving down into the Yearly lows (April lows)

Whether it continues to move lower is unknown as yet, as the trend will be moving down into the Primary and Secondary lows, which can often see larger pattern rotations upward

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro has continued up into the April highs, and there's a Weekly breakout.

this should see the trend continue up into next week's highs, but then most likely reverse back towards this week's breakout @ 1.4322

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Has continued higher, and will most likely complete the Yearly highs @ 1.0612.

If it continues up towards the Weekly highs, then we begin to look for reversal patterns back down towards the Weekly levels @ 1.0508, and then back towards the Weekly level and April high @ 1.0434

8th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

5-day 50% level support, and it now looks like the Euro will continue to push up towards friday's high, and the April high...

But first it needs to be trading above the weekly high, and remaining above the channel highs after 11am.

otherwise Friday can remain choppy between the weekly levels.




AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD completes the double Weekly high pattern @ 1.0508

And i'm not sure that the AUD will venture higher in the short-term (this week)

I'd keep an eye on the 11am levels:- each way bet on direction...

as it could continue to follow the friday high pattern, or dip down towards the
March highs @ 1.0434 and lower, as it remains below the brown filter

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Is Above the 5-day highs on Wednesday, and also above the Weekly highs...

This suggests more gains on Thursday, which could see the trend continue to move as high as the monthly highs by Friday @

Note:- random resistance Thursday's 5-day highs

If below the brown filter and also the Weekly highs, then trade manage the positions using each 12 hour range and 41 pips



AUD Weekly and Daily range

Completes the move into the monthly highs @ 1.0434, but it's too early to tell whether the trend will reverse down because there's a breakout of the 5-day highs on Wednesday....

which would normally continue higher on Thursday.

Note:- Overall target in 2011 is 106.12

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

6th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Weekly level is the trend guide, but the levels in the daily range aren't providing an ideal set-up in the first 12 hours.

Trend guide @ 1.4242

Random support @ 1.4191




AUD Weekly and Daily range

Weekly level support after a 2-day reversal pattern, which lends itself to more gains towards the Monthly highs.

Support 1.0322.

Could remain choppy during the first 12 hours between the levels in the daily range

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

5th April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Trend guide is based on the Weekly level, but also the expectation that there is a 5-day high pattern on Friday that could continue lower for the first 2-days.

therefore today's trend guide and random resistance is based on 1.4321.



AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD looks to be moving down towards the Weekly level @ 1.0302.

As long as it's below the brown filter during the 1st 12 hour period the trend should continue down....

With random support @ 1.0333.

If the AUD is below that level, and also below 1.0302, then we should treat the trend as moving back down towards the Weekly 50% level and also the April 50% level @ 1.0114

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT