1st July EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

1st of July and the new monthly 50% levels come into play.....

11am trend guide, and 11am 'random' support as shown...

if it breaks support then treat Friday as a lower daily close



AUD Weekly and Daily

Same pattern in the Monthly cycle, with the July 50% level coming into play...

A tight 2nd 12 hour range on Thursday could see a breakout in the next 12 hours, and that will be defined by the brown filter as a trend guide

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro looks like it's moving higher on Thursday (Wednesday breakout)

support:- 11am levels

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Same applies in the AUD....

looks to be moving towards the Weekly highs

11am support around 1.06370

Random resistance Thursday's highs.

Note:- we can see the higher step formation in the AUD (July 50% level).....

This could see the trend continue higher from next week:- another 5-days

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

As noted in the Weekly report, there was an expectation that the USD would move into a 2-day reversal pattern, and this has completed.

Currencies have risen over the past 2-days, and now we look to see if they will begin to move lower once again.

The Euro is hitting resistance levels, using the monthly and Weekly 50% levels...

However, price would need to be trading below the levels in the daily range, otherwise price can continue towards Wednesday's highs

AUD Weekly and Daily

AUD looks to be moving towards the Weekly 50% level and the July 50% level...

Trend Guide and support the 5-day 50% level (white channel highs)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Euro has risen upwards, and by the look for the patterns on Tuesday could continue higher, as part of the view that the USD is moving into a 2-day reversal pattern from Friday's highs.

However, there are a number of higher timeframe levels that could stall the upward movement in the Euro:- namely the Weekly and Monthly 50% levels

no probability pattern for Tuesday

AUD Weekly and Daily

first 12 hours could push upwards in the AUD, if price closes above the June 50% level....

However, i'm not sure whether price will move higher than the 5-day 50% level during the first few hours today.

no probability pattern.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and daily

The euro is either going to continue down into Monday's lows using the current levels as resistance #A

or it's going to follow #B, and rise upwards in the 2nd half of the day after 11pm.

no probability in which direction, but keep in mind that the USD index could move down during the first 2-days


AUD Weekly and Daily

Hard to see any upside, as price is below the June 50% levels, and also the Daily levels.

Therefore, there is a bias to move lower.

However, it won't surprise me to see a 2nd 12 hour rise upwards, if it's above 1.0470

24th June USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Monthly and Weekly cycles

USD dollar strength has once again failed to rise beyond the Quarterly level.

I still have the view that the USD dollar will continue to rise, however, the USD stalled at Friday's 5-day highs. This may result in next week beginning with a 2-day stall/reversal pattern.

There are two plays for the last week of the Quarter....

#1) 2-day reversal and then the USD dollar continues up towards next week's highs, and then the 3rd Quarterly 50% level from July

#2)...2-day stall and then a choppy 5-day pattern, but continues down into the 3rd Quarter trend guide in July before it continues higher.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

If there is a 2-day stall/reversal then the euro is likely to rise back towards the Weekly 50% level, using the Weekly level @ 1.41810.

However, the Euro is likely to continue down into the single monthly lows @ 1.4029, which aligns with the 3rd Quarterly 50% level (yellow)

AUD Monthly & Weekly level

AUD is likely to find support using the Weekly and Monthly levels:- 2-day rise

However, if the USD continues to rise, there are a number of quarterly 50% levels that the AUD will be attracted to:- namely the 3rd Quarterly 50% level. (yellow)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th June USD, EUR, AUD Daily

US Dollar Index

I'm bullish on the USD, and the Question remains...

is friday going to continue to trend towards higher highs

or is it going to remain flat and close in the middle of the 5-day range.

Euro Weekly and Daily

Based on the levels in the firsy 12 hours, it's likely to close in the middle of the range.

That might change after 11pm and continue lower..

There isn't ideal pattern to trade longs during the first 12 hours.

Random support 1.42250 (focus on 41 pip ranges & 4 hour patterns)

AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD looks like it wants to go higher during the first 12 hours, using 11am support and the Weekly level, after yesterday testing the June 50% level and finding support

however, I'm not sure the trend move move higher than the 12 hour channel highs (blue)

Support 1.05150-250

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd June USD, EUR, AUD Daily

USD Index

With QE2 ending on the 22/6/2011, is this going to push the US Dollar higher, and currencies lower???

In theory it should, and yesterday's 2nd 12 hour patterns suggests it should continue until Friday.


Euro Weekly and Daily range

It's all about whether the 11am support and 5-day 50% level will push the trend up towards the 11am levels (resistance)...

or whether the trend breaks and continues towards the Weekly lows by Friday:- first target the Weekly level @ 1.42250

Random trend guide the 5-day 50% level.

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Same applies on the AUD....

it's the 5-day 50% level, as the trend guide with the first 4 hours moving down towards random support levels in the first 12 hours

if those 12 hour levels fail to hold support, the target on the downside in the June 50% level 1.0551

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22st June USD EUR, AUD Daily

USD Index

As notes in the Weekly report, I'm bullish on the USD in the short-term unless they announce QE3.

However, as we can see, there has been a 2-day down move in the USD dollar and is now testing the June 50% level.

Basically, if the USD dollar is going to rise, then Wednesday needs to rise off the June 50% level and close back above the Weekly level @ 75.56


Euro Weekly and Daily

As noted in Yesterday's report, even though the Euro was hitting larger timeframe 50% levels, the patterns in the 12 hour range suggested more upside.

And by looking at the first 12 hour pattern, it once again looks like pushing upwards during the first 12 hours.

In conclusion:- the USD dollar could rise and the euro could reverse down from the Weekly 50% level.

However, in the 12 hour range, there isn't a set-up that helps validate those views as yet

AUD Weekly and Daily

Resistance around the 12 hour highs, and Wednesday's 5-day highs.

Above those levels could see the AUD continue to trend towards Tuesday's highs (previous daily highs)

50% levels are the trend guides in the 12 hour range

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

My view that the USD is rising and this will put pressure on Currencies to fall.

We saw 11am selling on Monday, but the Weekly level supported the downward trend and reversed upwards...

And looking at the daily range, I would normally favour a higher move on Tuesday.

However, there are higher timeframe 50% levels that can send the trend back downward once again, as the USD makes a move upwards, as per Weekly report

Once reason that could send the USD lower, would be the FEB announcing QE3 over the next few days, which in theory is devaluing the US Dollar

AUD Weekly and Daily

11am selling Monday lasted until the lower Weekly level @ 1.0515...

at this stage, the first 12 hours on Tuesday looks range boundd between the levels (choppy 4 hour patterns)

Random support/ trend guide is the 5-day 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

as noted in the Weekly report...my view is that the USD will rise putting pressure on currencies....

However, the USD could continue to drop during the first 12 hours, as part of retesting the June 50% level and Weekly 50% level on Monday.

Therefore it's an each way bet on the direction on monday, with the 12 hour blue channel support levels @ 11am providing random support that may fail.

AUD Weekly and Daily

Same applies on the AUD:- 50% levels on monday will thrust outward???

and then the channels will need to break to provide the next leg.

At this stage I don't know which way the trend will move, but my hunch is down based on the USD Index pattern

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th June USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index

As noted in Thursday's report.....

the USD Index is likely to reverse down from the Weekly highs, but then make another move upwards during the following week.

therefore, Next Week's trend bias is upwards, whilst currencies have a bias to move lower:- both random lengths...

Which means, I'm not sure that the trend will make an effort to move towards the June highs over the next 5-days..

or remain choppy within the Weekly levels (above Weekly 50% level)

Euro Monthly and Weekly

most likely to move upwards on Monday, but I'll be looking for opportunities to short-trade the euro during the 12 hour ranges.

Random resistance June 50% level and Weekly 50% levels

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD looks more likely to move upwards, as the monthly cycles are different compared to the euro.

AUD is above the monthly 50% levels, whilst the Euro is below.

However, it won't surprise me to see the same downward pressure on the AUD, if the USD moves upwards.l

17th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

As noted in yesterday's report, there is a possible short-term top in the USD index (weekly highs), that can see currencies rise up from Thursday's lows.

If that's the case, then 11am support levels will come into play for a push up towards the 5-day 50% levels.

However, I'm not sure whether the trend will move above the 5-day 50% level during the first 12 hours.


AUD Weekly and Daily


Same applies on the AUD (11am Support)...

Note:- there is always the possibility that the trend may move down into Friday's lows, if the 11am support levels fail

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th June EUR, AUD Daily

USD Index

USD index didn't continue down, as part of the next leg downward....

Instead Wednesday has move upwards, and if we follow text book patterns, then the Weekly highs are seen as resistance....

and if the trend is going to continue higher, then we look for a minor reversal pattern downward into support for another leg upwards next week, as described in the book.

Those patterns in the Index will have a bearing on how currencies trade over the next 5-days.



Euro Weekly and Daily

11am sell down, and Support failed, resulting in a 5-day breakout and a continuation down during the 2nd 12 hours.

Based on the current price action, my view is that the euro will move down into Thursday's lows....

And if the Index is going to reverse down, then we look for 2nd 12 hour patterns that can result in a higher daily close.


AUD Weekly and Daily

11pm selloff, and a move down into Wednesday's 5-day lows.

My view is that the AUD will move down, with the 5-day 50% level providing resistance.

Don't short trade above the 5-day 50% level, but the Weekly 50% level is also see as resistance if the first 12 hours moves upwards

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Trend bias is to continue higher, and may follow the dynamc 12 hour patterns at 11am.

However, if below yesterday''s lows Wednesday could move down into the June 50% level once again, and as far as 12 hour support, which might come around in the 2nd 12 hour low.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend is up, and can follow the 5-day range up towards Wednesday's highs.

However, if below the brown filter, the trend is coming down into the Weekly 50% level and the 5-day 50% level.

Those levels are seen as first 12 hour support (5-day 50% level)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th June EUR, AUD Daily

Trend bias is to continue higher in currencies, as the USD is rejected lower from the June 50% level.

However, there is still the possibility that there is weakness during 12 hour patterns around upper levels



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend bias is to continue higher, and because of the breakout of the 2nd 12 hour range, can see the trend move up towards the 5-day 50% level.

That level is seen as random resistance during the first 12 hours.

if the trend moves down, then 11am levels are seen as support.



AUD Weekly and Daily

AUD is below the Weekly 50% level, and will align with the 5-day 50% level, that could send the trend downward once again.

However, there is a breakout of the 2nd 12 hour high, that could push the trend upwards...

In conclusion:- trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level at 11am

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13th June EUR, AUD Daily

This week's trading is based on whether the USD reverses down from the June 50% level....

or it keeps rising for the next 3-days.

Euro Weekly and Daily

If the Euro is going to rise then the most logical level will be from 11am (or Monday's 5-day lows)....

but it needs to be trading above the Weekly and monthly 50% levels 1.4363/68

first target will be the 5-day 50% level during the first 12 hours

don' hold longs below the 5-day lows

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

There is a 5-day break out of Friday which should push down into Monday's lows....

Once it reaches Monday's lows, or the Weekly level @ 1.0501....

Then we should look to see if currencies are going to rise, or continue to fall

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th June USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index monthly and Weekly

Any further Weakness in Currencies will be because the USD index is trying to move up towards the June 50% level (Yesterday's report)

The USD dollar has risen back into the June 50% level.


This is the level, that if the USD dollar is going to collapse then it should reverse down next week and make a bee-line for the June lows....

That will see commodites & currencies rise whilst the USD Tanks.

If the USD moves upwards for the next 3-days, then the collapse might not eventuate and for the next few weeks consolidate into July



Euro Monthly and Weekly

Next Week:- It's a simple case of trading either side of the monthly 50% level


AUD Monthly and Weekly


Same applies on the AUD:- monthly 50% levels and single monthly lows will define whether the AUD moves higher...

or fails and breaks lower

10th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro has moved down and retested the Previous Weekly high breakout and found support.

normally this would see the Euro close higher, or at least close in the middle of the 5-day range on Friday

However, there is still the possibility that the first 12 hours is once again pushed downward into the 5-day lows.



AUD Weekly and Daily range.

There is no probability pattern on the AUD at this stage...

It may remain above the Weekly 50% level, but remain choppy between the 12 hour ranges.


Note;- any further Weakness in Currencies will be because the USD index is trying to move up towards the June 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro is in the middle of the Weekly range, and it didn't moved up into the weekly highs on Wednesday (11am), instead it sold down into the 5-day 50% level.

I still have the view that the Euro will come down and test last week's breakout... however, the levels in the daily range is an each way bet on Thursday

Trend guide is simply based on the brown filter, and random support on the 11am blue channel lows

AUD Weekly and Daily range.

Random support failed as it was below the 5-day 50% level, which then sent the AUD towards the Weekly 50% level.

As we can see the trend moved down into Wednesday's lows and found support

As the Trend is above the Weekly 50% leve, the trend bias is up, however the levels in the 5-day range don't provide a long set-up as yet.

on probability pattern for the first 12 hours for 'long' trades.

Below the Weekly 50% level and the trend bias is down into the Weekly lows

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Wednesday looks to be moving up towards the Weekly highs. (Wednesday's highs).

If that happens and it stalls, then we should look for a potential reversal pattern back down to retest the Weekly breakout.

for that to happen it will need to be trading below 11pm support levels.

Note:- There is a possible minor reversal pattern during the first 12-hour into 11am support, as it remains below Tuesday's 5-day high.

AUD Weekly and daily

2-day reversal pattern has completed, helped by the Weekly level forming resistance @ 1.0750 on the news that the Reserve bank didn't lift rates.

However, it hasn't continued below random support, and remains above the 5-day 50% level.

There is now a possible swing back towards the highs....

Trend guide 5-day 50% level.

Note:- price could come down into the random support level first, before it moves upwards.

If it's below Random support, then it's following the Weekly levels that are forming resistance

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th June EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro is either trying to move up towards the Weekly highs...or rotating back down into last week's Weekly high breakout, as part of a retest pattern.

Therefore the 11am levels will define the direction.

If the Euro moves down, it still has the possibility that the 5-day 50% level and channel lows will support the trend during the first 12 hours.

if below 1.4520 the trend bias is down into 1.4479 (previous Weekly high)



AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD is in an uptrend, but my view is it's starting this week with a 2-day reversal pattern.

Monday was the first with random support...

And if Tuesday is the 2nd, then 1.0750 and 11am channel highs should push the AUD lower, and as far as the Weekly 50% level, if it begins trading below the 5-day 50% level

it's obvious that above the 5-day highs on Tuesday, the trend bias is up to the Weekly highs @ 1.0810

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT