1st August 2011 Euro, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Trend guide is based on the monthly 50% level on the 1st of August...

Because of the Friday 5-day low pattern, my view is that the euro will begin with a 2-day up move this week...

with the 11am levels the trend guide.

AUD Weekly and Daily

Expectation that the AUD will continue up towards the Weekly and Monthly highs.

However, based on the 11am levels, I'm not sure that's going to happen during the first 12 hour range.

5-day 50% level is support.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th July 2011 (USD, EURO,AUD) Weekly

US Dollar index Primary and Weekly cycles

There is a trust pattern in the 3rd Quarter with an overall trend bias down towards the 3rd Quarter lows.

The current trend looks to be following the weekly cycles in step formation.

Whilst the trend is moving lower, the trend bias in Currencies is to continue upwards in the early part of August

Euro monthly and Weekly cycles

If currencies are going to move upwards, then the critical trend guide on the euro is the

 August monthly 50% level.....

along with the Weekly level @ 1.4410

AUD Monthly & Weekly cycles

Trend bias is to continue towards the August highs, which are seen as resistance...

with an overall target @ 1.17 in 2011

29th July 2011 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Weakness during the first 12 hour pattern down into Thursday's lows. This was part of a break and extend pattern from Wednesday,

but I would have thought that the 11pm levels and breakout would have continue lower and move towards the Weekly 50% level.

Friday is an each way bet, as the failure to remain below the 5-day lows could see the euro move back towards the upper Weekly level @ 1.4420.

if it's below the 11am levels, then the brown filter could form random support and a choppy first 12 hour range

AUD Weekly and Daily

As mentioned in yesterday's report, my view was that the position of the brown filter could push the AUD back towards the 5-day 50% level.

Based on the current price action, my view is that the AUD will continue down into Friday's 50%, which aligns with the Weekly highs.

Those levels are seen as support for a potential continuation upwards next week, and towards the August highs

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th July 2011 AUD, EUR Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Ax per Yesterday's report, I was expecting Wednesday to continue higher, instead the 2nd 12 hour pattern moved lower...

and looks like it's moving lower on Thursday.

Based on the levels on Thursday, my view is that the first 12 hours will try and move lower, using the channel in the Weekly and Daily range as resistance.

With a possibly move towards the Weekly 50% level by Friday

AUD Weekly and Daily

Whilst price is above Wednesday's highs the trend bias is up towards Thursday's highs, with random resistance around the brown filter.

and because of the brown filter the AUD could move back towards the 5-day 50% level and white channel high, which is seen as support.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th July 2011 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range.

As per yesterday's report (part 2)...

11pm breakout and continuation of the trend should see price move towards the highs on Wednesday, and then the Weekly highs by Friday...

as long as it remains above the July 50% level, which is now the support level @ 1.4462

AUD Weekly and Daily range

The trend in the AUD should continue to move towards the highs in July, and then up into the highs in August.

There wasn't a retest of the 5-day high breakout yesterday, and that might happen during the first 12 hours...

Support levels are the Weekly highs @ 1.0923 and as low as the 11am and 5-day highs @ 1.0899.

Wednesday's 5-day highs :- random resistance

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th July 2011 part 2

USD index Primary and Monthly cycles

US dollar looks to be heading back down into the Quarterly lows once again, after the 3rd Quarterly rejection from the 50% level.

This has resulted on currencies breaking out of their 5-days highs during the first 12 hours.

Euro and AUD 5-day pattern

both currencies have broken the 5-days highs...

if the trend is going to continue to move higher;- break and extend pattern into next daily highs...

then the ideal pattern would be for both currencies to retest the 5-day high during the 2nd 12 hour pattern, and should form support, and then continue outward by tomorrow...

and possibly longer:-

 Primary target on the AUD is the August highs and 1.17

26th July 2011 Euro, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Euro looks to be moving back towards the 11am lower level, which aligns with the 5-day 50% level.

Once that happens it becomes a random support pattern

AUD Weekly and Daily

Same applies on the AUD....

looks to be moving down into the 5-day 50% level and white channel low @ 1.0792 (random support)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th July 2011 Euro, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Weekly and Monthly 50% level could push the euro down

however, the daily levels at 11am could send the Euro higher.

no probability pattern for today

AUD Weekly and Daily

I was more bullish on the AUD because of the Weekly high breakout...

However, coming into 11am price is below the daily levels...

which could see the trend revisit the 5-day 50% level (random support)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd July 2011 USD, EUR, AUD, Weekly

USD Primary and Monthly cycles

The question on the USD is whether the trend continues to move downward, as part of a push outward from the 3rd Quarterly 50% level and break the 2011 lows...

That will happen if they fail to raise the debt ceiling...

or does the 3rd quarterly trend guide @ 74.32 supports the trend, and the USD moves into another monthly sideways pattern.

Euro monthly and Weekly cycles

Coming into the last week of July and the trend is either going to continue to move upwards, and then higher at the start of August...

or it's going to move back down, as the trend remains below the July 50% level.

Trend guide @ 1.4424

AUD monthly and Weekly cycles

AUD could move down from a higher weekly open, as it hits the single monthly cycles.

Trend guide 1.0833..

if that happens then it's rotating back towards the August 50% level.

However, because there is a breakout of the Weekly highs....

my view is that the AUD will continue upwards in the last week of July, and then follow the cycle towards the August highs

22dn July 2011 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

There is a breakout of Thursday's highs, which in theory should continue towards Friday's highs (random resistance)

However, the Weekly highs and July 50% level could stall the trend from rising during the first 12 hours.

11am trend guide

AUD Weekly and Daily range.

The same applies on the AUD with Thursday's breakout and expectation it will continue towards Friday's highs and maybe beyond

Simply because there's a beakout of the Weekly highs @ 1.0808, which could see the trend continue towards higher highs next week.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st July 2011, Euro & AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Euro has continued up into the Weekly 50%, and the question remains whether it will continue towards the Weekly highs...

or remain range bound over the next 2-days.

11am support levels

random resistance Thursday's highs

AUD Weekly and Daily

Does the AUD continue higher, or does it revisit the Weekly 50% level and July 50% level over the next 2-days?

11am trend guide

& 11am random support levels

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th July 2011 Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly and Daily range

As noted in yesterday's reports... of Tuesday moves down into the 11am support levels then there is more reason for the trend to continue higher

and based on the current price action, likely to continue towards the Wedneaday highs, and the Weekly highs.

Trend guide the brown filter

support the 5-day 50% level & 1.0674

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Based on the 11am levels, I favour more upside....

However, I'm not sure whether Wednesday will breakout or remain below the Weekly 50% level.

If it breaks out, then the 2nd 12 hour range should form support above the Weekly 50% level and 5-day high

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th July 2011 Euro, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

If the Euro is going to continue higher, after finding support around the Weekly levels, as it continues to trade above the July lows...

then ist will need to find support and the 11am levels, and break out of the 11am highs...

for a swing back towards the Weekly 50% level and Tuesday's highs.

high risk trading longs below the Weekly level and 11am support.

AUD Weekly and Daily

based on the levels on Tuesday, I favour a higher Tuesday open selling down from the 5-day 50% level and breaking 11am support and moving lower.

simply because price is trading below the Weekly and monthly 50% levels.

a bearish pattern will break out of Tuesday's lows.

A higher weekly close will find support on Tuesday's lows and then continue higher from Wednesday onwards.

However, if price moves down into 11am level and then rises higher, don't short-trade above the 5-day 50% level, as the market can swing back towards 1.07150

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th July 2011 Euro, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

11am trend guide is based on the channel low @ 1.41080

this is either going to push the euro back towards the channel highs...

or down into the 11am 5-day 50% level (random support)

don't trade longs below the 5-day 50% level

AUD Weekly and Daily

Same applies on the AUD and the channel lows in the daily range.

And as we can see, price is trading below the Weekly 50% level, therefore there is a bias to continue down towards the 5-day lows on Monday

if it's trading below the 11am blue channel lows

Trend guide @ 1.0645

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th July USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index

USD Index could continue to remain in a large sideways pattern for a number of weeks within the levels of the Quarterly range.

in the short-term, the trend bias is based on the Weekly 50% level.... and an each way bet on which direction it will take early next week:- Weekly lows or Weekly highs?

Euro Monthly and Weekly cycles

Looking at the levels in the monthly timeframe, I would think the Euro will try and rise upwards next week...

with trailing support using the weekly level @ 1.4057

AUD Monthly & Weekly cycles

Weekly 50% level is the trend guide early next week...

And looking at the price action in the Monthly cycles, it currently favours a move down towards the 3rd quarter support levels

14th July EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

11am support on Thursday, but a failure to continue back towards the Weekly 50% level.

I still favour a move back towards the Weekly 50% level...

however, the levels in the daily range aren't providing a probability set-up.

11am random support, which align with the 5-day 50% level (approx 1.40940)

AUD Weekly and Daily range

11am random trend guide...

which could push the AUD higher

or

back down into 11am support and towards the July 50% level @ 1.0660

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th July EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro has risen in the 2nd half of the day after finding support at the July lows.

The up move wasn't unexpected simply because of the price action in the USD Index, as per yesterday's report

Today:- Euro is likely to continue towards the Weekly 50% level, and I would see this as resistance during the first 12 hours

Trailing support, as per 11am support levels, which matches 11pm breakout levels

AUD Weekly and Daily

AUD is going to be defined by the Weekly level @ 1.0760.

this is either going to see price move up towards Thursday's highs, and then the Weekly highs by Friday.

or it's going to push price back down into the 11am levels

and retest the July 50% level @ 1.0660

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13th July EUR, AUD Daily

USD Index

the USD index has already moved back towards the 3-Quarterly 50% level and stalled at the July highs...

Therefore the upward bias could come to a halt and  begin to consolidate for the next 3-days

Euro Weekly and Daily

Trend guide is based on the 11am levels that could see Wednesday move back towards the Weekly lows @ 1.4076.

Those Weekly lows is seen as resistance during the first 12 hours.

if below 11am levels, then the trend bias is down into Wednesday's lows.

However, because of the USD index, the downward bias in the Euro might not make it all the way down into Wednesday's lows, and could continue to consolidate into the 2nd 12 hour range

AUD Weekly and Daily

11am and Weekly 50% level is the trend guide and seen as resistance during the first 12 hours

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12th July EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

USD continues to rise as the Euro gets hit with Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese markets dropping considerably.

As noted in the Weekly report, the key support level in the Euro is 1.4113, and that has failed with the euro breaking Monday's lows, and likely to extend down into Tuesday's lows.

Sadly, the Euro didn't retest Monday's 5-day low break in the 2nd 12 hours

The trend guide on the Euro is the Weekly lows @ 1.4076, which could act as resistance and push the trend down into Tuesday's lows (random support)

AUD Weekly and Daily range

As noted in the Weekly report, I'm bearish on the AUD...

The Weekly 50% level could support the trend, along with Tuesday's lows...

but whilst below the July 50% level, the trend bias is to continue down.

If below Tuesday's lows, the trend bias is down towards the Weekly lows

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th July EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

There was Friday support that could lead with a 2-day up move at the start of this week and towards the Weekly 50% level

for that to happen it will need to be trading above the 11am levels.

however, those 11am levels could form resistance during the first 12 hours....

Monday Random support

AUD Weekly and Daily

As noted in the Weekly report, the trend bias is up...

however, we should also see if there will be any pre-emptive sell patterns that could lead to a 2nd week down move.

if there is going to be weakness in the AUD, then it will remain below the 11am levels, and break Monday's support levels @ 1.0690

otherwise it will move back towards the highs

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th July USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index Monthly and Weekly cycles

US dollar looks to be moving higher in the short-term, as long as it remains above the Weekly 50% level.

If that ocurrs then this will put pressure on currencies at the start of the week

Euro Monthly and Weekly

The Euro could move back towards the Weekly 50% level at the start of the Week...

however, my view is that the Euro will move down into the Support levels @ 1.41130.

That level is critical, as it's the 3rd Quarterly 50% level, and also the single monthly lows

AUD Monthly and Weekly

The Trend bias is to continue higher, with an overall target @ 1.17.

However, the higher step formation in the monthly cycles is a concern in the AUD....

normally these steps form support for the first 5-days, but then often break and move lower in the following week

In conclusion:- the Trend bias is to continue upwards....

But at the same time we look for set-ups in the daily range for 'shorts', that could lead to the AUD moving back down towards 3rd Quarter support @ 1.0250

8th July EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Thursday remains below Wednesday's breakout, but above the Weekly 50% level.

Looking at the price action, my view is that the first 12 hour will try and move upwards, but likely to remains within the 11am levels 

If Friday is going to continue back towards thee July 50% level, then it's morel likely in the 2nd 12 hour range.

AUD Weekly and Daily

If the trend is going to continue upwards, then the ideal pattern is the move down into the 11am levels, which also aligns with the Weekly level @ 1.0738...

Random resistance Friday's and the Weekly highs

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th July EUR, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Yesterday:- 11am and July 50% level weakness pushed the Euro down into the Weekly 50%, which has formed support.

By looking at the levels in the higher timeframes, and the breakout of Wednesday's lows...

my view is that the first 12 hour will try and remain below Wednesday's lows.

It could push the trend down into Thursday's lows, but it might just remain above the brown filter and form a 'stall' pattern until 11pm

 Once 11pm begins then it gets interesting, simply because the overall pattern (monthly step) is bearish, which could lead to more weakness.

However, it would not surprise me either to see the Euro move back towards the July 50% level once again after testing the Weekly 50% level.

AUD Weekly and Daily

Yesterday:- 11am rise yesterday, but it failed to precisely hit resistance levels @ 1.0736/38

Weakness formed once price closed below the 11am levels, pushing the trend down into Wednesday's lows, which formed support

Today:-

11am levels come into play once again, which could see the trend move down into the 11am channels (random support)

if below support, then it's once again trying for the 5-day lows/Weekly 50% level

Because of the July 50% level support, above 11am levels and  Thursday could makes its way back towards the Weekly level and the channel highs in the 12 hour ranges

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT