AUD Primary & Monthly cycles
Primary breakout suggests the trend will continue down into the 2014 Yearly lows, as part of the break and extend pattern.
We can now see the completion of the break and extend pattern in the Quarterly highs, from the 2nd Quarter down into the 3rd quarterly lows @ .8874.
There could be some weakness down into the August lows @ (Support right chart), but my view is that the AUD should try and move back up towards the 2013 yearly lows, which aligns with the 2014 50% level:- around .9457. This will probably take 3-6 months for it to happen.
If that's the case, then this level is seen as a major resistance zone in 2014.
However, how will the market react if the Reserve continues to cut rates, putting more pressure on the AUD to drop further.
In conclusion:- Technically, the AUD should swing upwards.
Fundamentally, cutting rates favours the Primary 'bear trend'
