AUD Primary & Secondary cycles
Trend bias is to continue lower into 2015...
Potentially some support coming into December lows around .8139, but expected further weakness into .78cents
AUD/USD December 2014 Monthly Report
AUD Primary Cycles
As I've been saying for a while now, the AUD is heading down into the 2014 lows (now reached), and likely to follow a double Primary Trend into the 2015 Lows.
The 2015 lows will complete the double Primary wave pattern that will help under pin the AUD for a few quarters.
AUD/USD Monthly Report 20/10/2014
The current price action is following a retest pattern, where it retests last year's breakout that often aligns with the Yearly 50% level. Once that completes, my view is that the AUD will resume its downward trend towards the 2014 lows.
Previous Monthly Report
AUD Primary cycles
Previous Monthly Report
AUD Primary cycles
As we can see the AUD has tested the 2014 50% level and failed, as part of the Primary cycle break and extend pattern from the 2013 lows towards the 2014 lows. (minimum move .8564 towards .8310).
Current resistance is around the monthly 50% levels @.8930, as part of the monthly break and extend pattern from September lows to the November lows.
Long term trend will be define by the next Primary cycle in 2015, and whether those cycles dip lower, as the AUD is currently in a 2 period Primary Cycle downward trend.
AUD/USD Forex Monthly Report 7th April 2014
AUD Primary & Monthly cycles
My view was that the AUD would continue lower, as part of the Dilernia Principle with the Primary cycles.
However, it has done the opposite, and has broken out within the Monthly cycles in the last month of the Quarter, which suggests the trend will continue higher in the 2nd Quarter.
This suggests that the trend will continue up into the April highs, and into the 2014 Yearly 50% level @ .9449.
However, my view is that is will follow a similar pattern as GOLD (click the above link)
The current price action is following a retest pattern, where it retests last year''s breakout that often aligns with the Yearly 50% level. Once that completes, my view is that the AUD will resumes its downward trend towards the 2014 lows.
AUD/USD 3rd March 2014 Monthly Report
1st Quarter Support @ 87.01 and expectation it is rising back towards the 50% levels...
A slow rise up into the end of March, and then a continuation down from around .9092 & down into the 2014 lows 8560, as part of the Primary break & extend pattern into the 2014 lows. (Previous Report)
AUD/Weekly Primary and Monthly cycles
Primary cycles suggests the AUD will continue down into the 2014 lows, as part of the break -n - extend pattern from the 2013 yearly lows (Dilernia Principle)
Monthly cycles in February also playing their part, as it forms resistance....
As long as it remains below the MARCH 50% level @ .8918, the trend bias is down.
if it breaks above the 5-day highs, then it's retesting the Quarterly 50% @ 9092.
AUD/USD 4th February 2014 Monthly Report
AUD/USD Primary & Monthly cycles
1st Quarter Support @ 87.01 and expectation it is rising back towards the 50% levels...
That means a swing as high as .9335 by the end of MARCH or sooner, and then a continuation up towards .9440 sometime in the 2nd Quarter.
Or....
A slow rise up into the end of March, and then a continuation down from around .9092 & down into the 2014 lows .8560, as part of the Primary break & extend pattern
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