AUD/USD Forex Report 30th November 2015

AUD/USD Primary Cycles

My view is that the AUD will try and continue down in 2016, however I've been looking for the AUD to move up into resistance zones before the next move downward in 2016.

The ideal move would be for the AUD to remain above .7091 and rise upwards in December and early January and then look for set-ups for the next leg downward using the 2016 50% level as resistance.

AUD/USD Forex Report 1st November 2011

AUD/USD Primary cycles

Weekly breakout on Monday above the previous 5-day highs & .7154 , which forms support the following week, and the expectation that the AUD is retesting .7567 (major Resistance SELL ZONE) Previous Report

As we can see the AUD rose on the back of the 5-day high break earlier this month, without reaching the first resistance zone @7474, instead slipping back and retesting Support.

This support zone resides @ .7091, but the trend guide as to whether it moves up towards .7567 begins next week from 7155.

Note: Primary trend suggest the long term trend guide is to continue lower in 2016.

Below .7091 and keep an eye on .6894

AUD/USD FOREX Report 4th October 2015

AUD Primary & Weekly cycles

First resistance zone @ .7220 held, and now it's moved down to .7154 in October.

As noted in previous report, the AUD is likely to follow the trend down in 2016 towards the lows around .66 cents

There are two patterns at play,

1.  trade resistance during each monthly timeframe with the expectation that it's following the primary cycles downward in 2016.

2. Weekly breakout on Monday above the previous 5-day highs & .7154 , which forms support the following week, and the expectation that the AUD is retesting .7567 (major Resistance SELL ZONE)

AUD/USD Forex Chart 12th September 2015 Monthly report

AUD Primary & Weekly cycles

The Australian dollar completed its move down into .7091 cents

I was expecting more support to come into the Aussie Dollar @ .7091 cents using the Primary Cycles, with a swing upwards into .7567 (resistance) but it instead has followed the Weekly cycles down into the September lows .6936 (random Support)

Based on current patterns coming into the end of the 3rd Quarter and the start of the 4th, there are two resistance levels:- .7220 & 7567, 

Note:- Even though the trend remains weak, 5-day cycle set-ups should provide short-term buying opportunities above .7220 at the start of each weekly timeframe

Report continues below......

AUD Primary Cycles

Primary Cycles suggests the AUD has the potential to continue lower follow the Primary Cycles into the 2016 lows.

Short-sell 7567 in 2015.

AUD/USD 24th August 2015 Report

AUD/USD Primary & Weekly cycles

There's still a trend bias to move down into .71 cents (SUPPORT)

AUS/USD 3rd August 2015 Monthly Report

AUD/USD Primary & Weekly Cycles

As Noted in the Previous report, the price action is down into MAJOR Support level in August and 100% of the Primary range.

Therefore around .7091-71 is a level that good enough to GO LONG from...

However, there is a major resistance zone:- August 50% level 75.65  and previous Primary support earlier in the year.

This resistance zone could end up stalling the AUD for the rest of 2015.

Australian Dollar V US Dollar 23rd July 2015 Report

AUD Primary & Weekly cycles

Commodity prices dropping (READ GOLD Report) dragging the AUD dollar lower.

Even though the AUD is hovering around the July lows, it's actually trading below those lows @.7485 forming a resistance zone, and most likely follow the weekly cycles towards the Weekly lows, and as low as .7091

For short-term trading I would use each of the levels as Support & Resistance.

Resistance:- .7567

                                                                           

Australian Dollar AUD/USD 4th July 2015 Monthly Report

Australian Dollar (Primary & Weekly Cycles

What was support becomes resistance, and that price is .78 cents.

There is still major support around .7567 that's worth trading but don't be surprised to see the AUD dip as low as the June lows. (Previous Report)

Commodity prices heading downward dragging the AUD lower towards the July lows.(Random Support  .7398)

There's a lack of support in the AUD as we begin the 3rd Quarter, with random support around the July lows that's either going to swing the AUD up into the 50% level @ 7727....

 or for whatever reason the trend continues with the Primary cycles southbound into the 4th Quarter and .7091

AUSSIE Dollar AUD/USD 8th June 2015 Report

AUD Primary & Weekly Cycles

As noted in the previous report, the expectation of commodity prices dropping further in 2015 was going to weigh heavily on the Aussie dollar.

What was support becomes resistance, and that price was .78 cents.

There is still major support around .7567 that's worth trading but don't be surprised to see the AUD dip as low as the June lows.

Below .7567 and decent support resides around the Weekly lows (Green)

Page 34 of Market Trading Market Timing...

Use Sequential ordering of pattern formations

1. Apply the trend identification Model

2. Identify Support,Resistance, & Trends

3. Identify the change of Support & Resistance with the use of TIME

4. Forewarn & Foretell the likely events in the future using Principle SET-UPS

AUD/USD 25th MAY 2015 Forex Report

                                                            AUD/USD Primary cycles

As noted in the previous report, AUD rose on the back of the rate cut and hit the MAY highs and stalled

Support now resides around 78 cents:- Monthly 50% level and 2015 Lows.

Based on Commodity prices and their own Primary Cycles, there is still a bias to move lower in 2015, how this effects the AUD for the rest of the year will simply be defined by trading either side of .78cents

AUS/USD Forex Report 4th MAY 2015

AUD Primary Cycles

The Completion of the Break & Extend pattern from the 2014 lows into major support @ 7567

has provided a robust pattern for the AUD to continue to rise up into the 3-month highs. 

That 3-month high is now 80.90 in MAY, and if it's going to continue higher then the support level becomes .7802-.7819 (Yearly lows and 3-month 50% level)

Above .8090 (resistance) and trend bias is to move back towards the 2015 50% level over the next 6 months.

Short-term and we have tomorrow's interest rate announcement, and if they drop rates then it could put pressure on the AUD once again.

However, last week's spike and retracement might have that already factored in, as the Reserve bank leaked the news early.

Therefore don't be surprised to see the AUD move upwards after the news. (trade on the side of .7802)

AUD/USD Forex Report 30th March 2015 & Part 2 Update 3rd April 2015

AUD Primary Cycles

As noted in the previous report, the AUD hit Support 7555-7567 right on the button completing break and extend pattern in the Primary Cycles.

Until it's trading above the 2nd Quarter 50% level (.7849 confirmed after this week), it is too early to tell whether the AUD is going to rise upwards for the next 3-6 months :- 1st Target .8200

What's going to holdthe AUD back is that the Trend bias in GOLD is to continue lower (READ GOLD Report)

AUD/USD (4thApril)

AUD is back down into Major Support @.7567 as it rotates within the weekly cycles.

There are two critical patterns now occurring...

#1) shift in the 'Intermediate' Timeframe (Monthly) pushes Support lower in April towards .7426-61

#2) 'Secondary' Timeframe & the 2nd Quarterly 50% level drops down to .78-7811, this will valid a change of the current down trend once there's a Friday close above this level.

Therefore 5-day high break outs are now patterns to keep an eye on.

AUD/USD Forex Report 3rd March 2015 Monthly report

AUD/USD Primary & Weekly cycles

Support resides around .7555-7567

Price continues to consolidate around the 2015 lows, without reaching MAJOR Support around .7567

Unless there's a breakout above the Monthly & Quarterly 50% level @ .7937, there is a bias to move lower.

Keep an eye on next week's Weekly lows, as a thrust pattern upwards from those lows (Random support) and a breakout above the Weekly highs, can see a Quarterly recovery towards .8311

Commodity prices holding back the AUD (Read GOLD & Silver Reports)

AUD/USD Forex Report 9th February 2015

AUD Primary & Weekly cycles

AUD followed the Weekly break and extend pattern into the Weekly lows, and is now likely to follow the pattern down into the February lows @ .7563 and a MAJOR SUPPORT Zone, that also aligns with a number of other timeframe Support zones.

Primary Support, Quarterly Support, Monthly Support, & Weekly lows

Therefore Support resides around .7555-7567

AUD/USD 28 January 2015 Primary Cycles

AUD Primary cycles

The Primary cycles in the AUD was always going to continue down into the 2014 lows and then follow a 2 period cycle pattern towards the 2015 lows.  

The large Primary cycle has now completed, reaching the 2015 lows @ .7861, and when we compare the current price action with the price action in the Precious Metals (GOLD & Silver), there is very good reason why the AUD can now begin to rise upwards.  (READ Previous Report)

To confirm the long term view of AUD finding support, there needs to be a breakout of the 3-week highs, or a move above the February 50% level around .8230 to help validate the current price action.

Primary & Weekly cycles

Short-term cycles have a Weekly breakout @ .8044 , Weekly 50% level rejection, and now likely to follow the trend down into this week's lows and then February lows next week, as part of a break & extend pattern

AUD/USD 1st January 2015 Primary Cycle Report

AUD Primary cycles

The Primary cycles in the AUD was always going to continue down into the 2014 lows and then follow a 2 period cycle pattern towards the 2015 lows. 

This view was based on the Dilernia Principle of Break & extend pattern in 2013 lows, heading down into the 2014 lows, and then follow another principle of a 2-timeframe wave pattern:- 2015 lows

All that information is found in my books.

http://thetradingbook.blogspot.com.au/

As we can see the DEC lows has supported price, but it is now likely to follow a January pattern down into .7951, and then make its way towards .7861 as the 2nd target in the Primary cycle

This is the next long term BUY zone, however it would not surprise me to see the AUD dip as low as .7621 in the 2nd Quater before institutional buying comes in to Support the AUD and sell the US dollar.

This also fits in with Metals following the same patterns of long term Support. (Read Gold & Silver)

 http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com.au/