AUD/USD Forex Report 5th December 2016

                                                            AUD Primary & Weekly Cycles

The overall trend is to continue up towards the 2017 highs, but there is random resistance around the November highs, whilst trailing support resides around the November lows @.7449 (Previous Report)

November highs slapped the AUD lower, along with Trumps victory and his  negative attitude towards the TPP.

All of a sudden the AUD is looking weak with the November low breakout and price trading below the Yearly 50% level.

The AUD now looks like it's going lower using the December 50% level as resistance.

If the AUD fails to to head lower, but continues higher this week then the AUD will rally for the rest of the month. However trade what you see.. sell resistance.

AUD/USD Forex Report 6th November 2016

AUD/USD Primary & Weekly Cycles

The AUD continues to trade in a tight band within the Monthly ranges.

The overall trend is to continue up towards the 2017 highs, but there is random resistance around the November highs, whilst trailing support resides around the November lows @.7449

AUD/USD Forex Report 3rd October 2016

AUD/USD Primary & Weekly Cycles

AUD remains bullish as it's trading above the Yearly 50% level with .7595 being support with random resistance around the October highs @ .7775

As we can see the monthly channels are now contracting, and it's going to result in a breakout either way.

Therefore there are two plays coming into the start of the 4 quarter and final 3-month cycle.

1. continue to trend towards .8060 - 8160

2. hit .7775 stall and then revisit .7415 

AUD/USD Forex Report 4th September 2016 Monthly Reports

AUD/USD Primary & Weekly Cycles

AUD continues to trade above the Yearly 50% level .7482 (Bullish)

If The AUD is going to rise up to the September highs it's going to rise up from .7528

AUD/USD Forex Report 1st August 2016

AUD/USD Primary and Weekly Cycles.

The expectation of the AUD rising up into the Yearly 50% level and then heading lower failed to eventuate even though it provided resistance for a number of weeks.

With Commodity prices rising and now consolidating above the Yearly 50% level, the AUD looks to be pushing up towards the August highs:- Random resistance 

AUD/USD Forex Report 4th June 2016

Primary & Weekly Cycles

The overall trend is to continue down into .7038, however don't be surprised to see a rise and retest of the Weekly 50% level and the MAY 50% level beforehand. Previous Report

Primary Trend remains bearish, however we have seen the AUD rise up into the June 50% level.

This is the critical level that will provide the resistance for the AUD to continue lower.

However, keep in mind that Monday can push higher, as part of the 5-day break & extend pattern towards .7464

To validate weakness, you'll need to keep an eye on price moving up on Monday, Tuesday moving down, and then validate Wednesday with the June 50% level as resistance.

AUD/USD Forex Report 20th May 2016

                                                        AUD/USD Primary & Weekly Cycles

Treat the Trend as a break and extend pattern towards this week's lows @ .7187. (random support) Previous Report

 As noted in the previous report, the trend had changed because of the failure of the Yearly 50% level to hold and the breakout of the Weekly lows.

Once the Weekly lows had broken, we follow the 'Dilernia Principle of Break and Extend" in this case down into .7187, which has now completed.

The overall trend is to continue down into .7038, however don't be surprised to see a rise and retest of the Weekly 50% level and the MAY 50% level beforehand.

In Conclusion:- Trend Down into .7038 with an each way bet on a short-term bounce from this level @ .7187

AUD / USD Froex Report 8th MAY 2016

AUD Primary & Weekly Cycles

Taking partial profits around .7828 - 7850 protects you just in case it zag-zags down towards the 3-week lows once again before the next leg up towards the upper target. (Previous Report)

  

  AUD hit the exit zone at .7828 and has now move back down, except the Weekly lows and 2016 50% level didn't hold.

A change in fundamentals helped with the break, as the Reserve Bank Cut interest rates last week.

Treat the Trend as a break and extend pattern towards this week's lows @ .7187. (random support)

Expectation of the AUD going higher has completely changed because of last week's price action on Friday's close.

AUD/USD Forex Report 16th April 2016

AUD/USD Primary & Weekly cycles

 

when we look at the lesser timeframes we can see patterns that suggest the AUD should continue higher... 

1.  Consolidation above the 2016 50% level

2. March 50% thrust pattern and breakout of the MARCH highs.

3. Expectation it will now continue to trend up towards the April highs and continue in 2-month wave pattern upwards MAY highs and as high as the July highs (3rd Quarter)

Therefore the only conclusion is, the AUD is going higher. (PREVIOUS Report)

 

For those that are long I would look to take something off around .7828-50

 

The Primary trend remains strong, which could result in further gains in the AUD for the rest of the year (.8060 - .8160)

 

Taking partial profits around .7828 - 7850 protects you just in case it zag-zags down towards the 3-week lows once again before the next leg up towards the upper target.

 

AUD-USD Forex Report 27th March 2016

AUD-USD Primary and Weekly Report

 

The AUD was always going higher once it moved above the February 50% level, and it's finally moved to where I thought it would originally going some months ago, a retest of the previous Yearly lows  .7553 - .7633

 

The Primary patterns will always drive the trend and this retest of the previous Primary lows can see the AUD make another move downward.

 

However, when we look at the lesser timeframes we can see patterns that suggest the AUD should continue higher...

 

1.  Consolidation above the 2016 50% level

2. March 50% thrust pattern and breakout of the MARCH highs.

3. Expectation it will now continue to trend up towards the April highs and continue in 2-month wave pattern upwards MAY highs and as high as the July highs (3rd Quarter)

 

Therefore the only conclusion is, the AUD is going higher.

 

However, don't be an the wrong side of the April 50% level if the AUD is coming down from retesting the previous yearly lows and back below the April 50% level. That's a game changer.

Forex Report AUD/USD 28th Feburary 2016 Monthly Report

Australian Dollar / USD Primary Cycles

 

As noted in the previous report, above the monthly 50% levels and the AUD will try and make its way towards the 3-month highs.

 

I would give it another 5-days, and then use the March 50% level as the trend guide for the rest of the month and into the start of the 2nd Quarter in April.

Forex Report AUD/USD 1st February 2016

AUD/ USD Primary & Weekly Cycles

 

The price of the Australian dollar didn't hit the major support zones in January around the 2016 lows.

 

The AUD may have another go in February, as the new 50% level pushes the AUD back into those levels, however it won't surprise me to see and move back towards the 3-month highs in February.

 

Trade on the side of the February 50% level @.7098.

Forex Report AUD/USD 16th January 2016

AUD/USD Primary Cycles

 

the AUD is heading lower as part of the Primary Cycles for 2016, with 3 areas that will provide some resistance (Previous Report)

 

Sadly, the AUD didn't reach those resistance areas, and now looks to be completing the move down into the 2016 lows earlier than expected.

 

These lows are seen as Major Support in 2016, especially if it reaches .6703.

 

However, there's a breakout of the January lows @ .7043 that's likely going to form resistance for the rest of the month.

 

 Any long term buying support in the AUD will probably move into another stalled movement because of this, however we can reassess the price action at the start of February.

AUD/USD Forex Report 1st January 2016

Primary Cycles

 

The start of the new year brings in the new Primary Cycles for 2016.

 

I've always had the view that the AUD will try and rise upwards before it continues its next leg downward into the 2016 lows

 

 

There are 3 Short zones that can provide the areas of resistance.

 

January highs @ .7412.

2016 50% level @ .7482

2015 level @ .7567 

 

Each of those levels will provide areas of resistance, but it would not surprise me to see the AUD actually push as high as .7567, because I always look for trends to re-test the previous breakout zones.

 

In conclusion:- the AUD is heading lower as part of the Primary Cycles for 2016, with 3 areas that will provide some resistance, as the AUD trends down towards  .6800/ .6644 BUY Zone