FOREX GBP/USD 17th June 2008 Recap

"Expectation that GBP would have an UP day on Monday and then look to sell down from a higher open on Tuesday using the Weekly 50% level as a trend guide.

However, Monday's UP day ended up moving higher than expected, breaking out of the 3-day range.

Breakout of the 3-day range will normally move into the highs the next day, but it also comes back to re-test the 5-day 50% level on most occassions.

Therefore:- Tuesday's highs are view as resistance to trade back down into the 5-day 50% level...."

Premium Report 17th June


GBP Daily and 3-day pattern

Tuesday pushes up into the 3-day highs and reverses back down into the 5-day 50% level closing out the trading day....


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    • FOREX EUR/USD 17th June 2008 part 2

    EUR Daily and 3-day pattern

    EURO following the 2-day counter-trend move up into Tuesday's highs......

    FOREX EUR/USD 17th June 2008


    EUR daily and 3-day pattern

    http://forexspread.blogspot.com/2008/06/forex-eurusd-weekly-14th-june-2008.html

    As per Weekly Report, expectation price was pushing up towards the Weekly 50% level and Monday's highs, and then reverse back down towards the lows.

    Tuesday's trend will simply be defined by the 5-day 50% level and 3-day high (yellow).

    If price is going to continue down into the Weekly lows, then it should sell off and continue down.

    If price is going to follow the standard two day counter-trend move then the 5-day 50% level will support price, which isn't part of my probability pattern today.

    FOREX AUD/USD 17th June 2008

    AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

    As per Weekly Report :-

    http://forexspread.blogspot.com/2008/06/forex-audusd-14th-june-2008.html

    Looking for a push upwards on Monday towards the Weekly 50% level and then a continuation lower.

    Normal price patterns from lower Weekly opens is a two day counter-trend move before the trend continues down. Monday is the first, and if Tuesday follows the same pattern, then price should continue higher....

    However, looking and the range length on Monday, price on Tuesday can easily reversed down from Tuesday's 3-day high and spiral top.

    As mentioned in the Weekly Report, we need to see a higher Daily open to trade down, and this is aligning with Tuesday's 3-day high (Yellow).

    Dont' short trade above the Spiral filter.

    FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 14th June 2008

    EUR Weekly and Daily charts

    EURO heading back towards 1.5000

    3-week cycle is a sell and failure this week to break the 3-week highs, and now moving below June's 50% level will push the Euro lower.

    Next Week's view is a move up and then continuation lower....


    "Therefore a robust pattern early this week is to come down a test the 5-day 50% level, and then find support around Tuesday's 3-day lows before heading higher into Friday.

    Basically the 3-day lows on Tuesday need to hold for a continuation upwards."

    Previous Weekly Report

    EUR 3-day pattern

    Last Week I was looking for a a push down into Tuesday's lows... it was critical for Tuesday to hold if the up-trend was going to continue.

    Once Tuesday close below the 3-day lows, then the expectation was for price to continue lower into Thursday's lows, and follow the weekly timeframe lower.

    Next Week:- The best set-up for the EURO to trade shorts would see price come up and test the 3-day highs. It could be Monday or the next day, but an ideal pattern is a move up into the 3-day highs and sell down from a higher daily open

    EUR Spiral Filter

    Once again use the Spiral filter as your trend guide and least Risk trade.

    Note: each bar represents 95 pips over the past couple of weeks

    FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 14th June 2008

    As what occured in the Jan-March highs, I would be looking for any resistance around 97cents, but then weakness needs to be confirmed with a break of the 3-day lows....

    On Monday, the pattern is once again looking for a down move of 90-95 pips whilst price is trading below the Spiral tops....

    Support:- Tuesday's 3-day lows....

    Previous Weekly Report



    AUD/USD 3-day pattern

    Expectation that the AUD was reversing back down from a higher open on Monday and back towards Tuesday's dynamic lows.

    Except Monday ended up moving down below the Weekly 50% level, and then the rest of the Week followed the market lower, as per Daily reports.

    AUD Weekly and Daily chart

    Expectation that AUD is moving back towards July's 50% level...

    Next Week's view is a push up into the Weekly 50% level, and then that level should be a trend guide for the rest of the week on any continuation lower.

    Therefore a higher daily close should be followed by a higher daily open and moving downwards from the 5-day 50% level.

    FOREX GBP/USD Weekly 14th June 2008

    Last Week's expectation was to trade the 'short' side of the market down, because of price trading below the higher timeframe 50% levels, along with a higher Weekly open.

    This week is much of the same....

    Previous Weely report

    GBP Weekly and Daily charts

    Higher Weekly open and break of the Weekly 50% level sending GBP lower.

    Next Week's view is a rotation towards the Weekly 50% level and then a continuation down into the Weekly lows, which match June's lows.

    GBP 3-day pattern

    FOREX EUR/USD 13th June 2008

    EUR Daily and 3-day pattern


    Expectation of a continuation down into Thursday's lows.


    With the EURO trading below June's 50% level, the trend bias is to continue downwards, but expect daily counter-trend moves upwards from lower daily opens the next day.


    At this stage Friday looks range bound between both blue channels, unless some data comes out which often spikes the spread against the USD on Friday's.

    No probability trade on Friday.

    FOREX AUD/USD 13th June 2008

    AUD/USD daily and 3-day pattern

    AUD has rotated down into June's 50% level and has continued down breaking Thursday's lows.

    In this case, the expectation is a continuation down into Friday's lows.

    Often a lower Daily open will get some buyers appearing, and lately Friday has seen most USD spreads rally on Friday's when data-reports are released.

    If that's the case on Friday I wouldn't be short trading above the 5-day 50% level.

    At this stage the Weekly trend is to continue down into Friday's lows, and I will get a better idea on the next move in the trend once Friday closes and the new week begins.

    Short-covering Friday's lows.....


    AUD 3-day pattern

    FOREX AUD/USD 12th June 2008

    AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

    This week's break of Monday's lows and continuation below the Weekly 50% level, and expectation is that AUD was heading back down into .9338

    This move has completed by reaching Thursday's lows, with matching price.

    At this stage these 3-day lows are support, but not part of a major UP swing.

    If looking to go long around these lows keep stops tight :- don't trade longs elow Thursday's lows
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